Why 15-year-old Emoni Bates is basketball's next phenomenon

This summer's biggest storyline from the basketball recruiting world -- aside from the outrage about LeBron James taking part in layup lines -- is a 15-year-old from Ypsilanti, Michigan.

Emoni Bates is not just the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 class -- he's the best prospect in high school basketball right now, and he has been anointed as a legitimate generational prospect.

If this sounds like hyperbole, try this: "He has a chance to be ahead of LeBron. I've never seen a better freshman," one scout said. More on that later. For now, Bates is the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick in whichever NBA draft he's eligible to enter, and with the one-and-done rule potentially changing, it's unlikely he will ever play in college.

So, who is Bates, how did he get here, and how good is he, really?

How good is Bates?

Bates is a 6-foot-8 small forward from Lincoln High School (Michigan), and he's the clear-cut top prospect in the 2022 class. As a high school freshman, he led his school to its first state championship. Bates played on the U-15 level of the Nike EYBL for Bates Fundamentals, a grassroots program run by his father, E.J., a former college player at Division II Kentucky Wesleyan who played professionally overseas. At the Nike Peach Jam in July, Bates averaged 32.3 points -- including one 44-point effort -- 10.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists while shooting 54.5% from the field.

"He has a chance to be ahead of LeBron. I've never seen a better freshman. He's a prospect that's dominant as a ninth-grader. That's rare." longtime college scout, on Bates

"Size, skill, killer mentality, shooting ability," one grassroots veteran said. "I have never seen that combination."

Gary Charles, who has coached the New York Panthers for decades and recently conducted a tournament in Las Vegas that featured Bates, said: "His understanding of the game, handling of the ball and quick burst remind me of Penny [Hardaway],"

What separates Bates from his peers is the fact that he has a sky-high ceiling to go with elite-level production.

"He has a chance to be ahead of LeBron. I've never seen a better freshman," a longtime scout said. "He's a prospect that's dominant as a ninth-grader. That's rare. Normally prospects are guys with high upside or potential that you haven't fulfilled. His potential is high, but he's doing it now."

One shoe company veteran added, "I'm not saying he's [Kevin] Durant. I'm saying his projection is higher than Durant's was."

There are some recruiting experts who are taking more of a wait-and-see approach with Bates, opting to hold off on considering him one of the best prospects since LeBron.

"Bates is definitely among the upper tier of guys I've seen at the same stage of development and age," one longtime evaluator said. "As good as he is (and can be, no doubt), I do have a sense that some folks -- and it happens so much in this social-media-driven era of basketball -- are rushing to anoint him as 'the next best thing,' 'best since LeBron,' etc. I am more of the mind to pump the brakes a bit, and let's follow his development and let's see how he continues to grow as a player, as well as let's see how he (and those around him) react as the hype and adulation reach absurd levels even before he's played his first game as a high school sophomore."

Justin Young, a national recruiting writer for Rivals.com who now runs HoopSeen, a basketball event and content company based in Georgia, said James defied odds because he was "physically blessed by the basketball gods."

"Expectations are a tough thing to live up to, I don't care who you are," Young said. "What's the peak of an athlete? We never know that answer. You never really know. And that's always the question mark."

Part of the reason to perhaps reserve judgment is because of Bates' decision to play at the U-15 level on the EYBL circuit as opposed to playing up with the 16s or 17s. He also didn't attend the National Basketball Players Association Top 100 Camp in June or the USA Basketball junior national team mini-camp in July.

"I'm not saying he's [Kevin] Durant. I'm saying his projection is higher than Durant's was." shoe company veteran, on Bates

"If we revisit this question in two years, it's more fair," Young said. "The only time we've seen Emoni Bates against anyone in the same space was last fall in USA Basketball. We've only seen him against his age group, which I'm in favor of, by the way. It allows kids to grow at a more attainable rate. Very few guys are able to maintain that. [Greg] Oden played his age group. And there were moments at the October thing where you saw it with Bates. But play 17-U, play Sunday at Peach Jam, go to City of Palms. The best player since LeBron James? The kid doesn't even weigh 150 pounds. It's not apples to apples. It's unfair. Is he a generational prospect? Definitely. But maybe we need to change the narrative to say he's the best prospect since Kevin Durant, not LeBron James."

A veteran grassroots coach said Bates "stands out like a sore thumb."

"That kid needs to play against older, stronger guys to get better," he said. "He is a tremendous talent with tremendous potential. But we would be doing the kid a disservice by giving him superstar status before playing on a big stage."

One recruiting expert -- who didn't include Bates among his top five prospects since LeBron -- disagreed with the critique that Bates' competition has exaggerated his value.

"It's not like he's bullying guys. He's not bigger and stronger. Bates is damn near weaker than everybody and he's killing them," he said. "How he scores translates. He's shooting 25-footers."

Experts' poll: Where would you rank Bates?

The LeBron and Durant comparisons raise the question: How good is Bates from a historical perspective? We polled more than a dozen grassroots basketball experts (including those quoted above) who have been involved in recruiting as AAU or college coaches, event operators, scouts or recruiting analysts.

The question was simple: Who are your top five high school prospects since LeBron James? Players earned five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote, etc.

Here were the results:

1. Kevin Durant: 37 points (9 of 13 ballots, four first-place votes)

Class: 2006
ESPN 100 ranking: N/A
Recruiting services consensus index: 2

Quotable: "I'd say Durant gets that 'best since LeBron, at comparable stage' nod from me, in large part because of all his physical dimensions (athletic tools) and innate generational scoring skills."

2. Greg Oden: 24 points (7 of 13 ballots, three first-place votes)

Class: 2006
ESPN 100 ranking: N/A
RSCI: 1

Quotable: "People have forgotten how dominant he was, from early in his high school career through his freshman season at Ohio State."

3 (tied). Derrick Rose: 16 points (5 of 13 ballots, two first-place votes)

Class: 2007
ESPN 100 ranking: 5
RSCI: 5

Quotable: "Pooh's size, speed and bounce felt pro-ish at 15."

3 (tied). Emoni Bates: 16 points (6 of 13 ballots, one first-place vote)

Class: 2022
ESPN 100 ranking: 1
RSCI: N/A

Quotable: "He's maybe the best freshman I've ever seen."

3 (tied). Anthony Davis: 16 points (7 of 13 ballots, zero first-place votes)

Class: 2011
ESPN 100 ranking: 1
RSCI: 1

Quotable: "AD got exponentially better every time you saw him. That, and his physical profile, made it easy to forecast his greatness."

6. Ben Simmons: 15 points (5 of 13 ballots, one first-place vote)

Class: 2015
ESPN 100 ranking: 1
RSCI: 1

Quotable: "It just felt different with him."

7. Dwight Howard: 13 points (5 of 13 ballots, zero first-place votes)

Class: 2004
ESPN 100 ranking: N/A
RSCI: 1

Quotable: "One of the best big men to ever play the game in his prime. Seriously."

Others receiving votes: O.J. Mayo (2007, one first-place vote), Zion Williamson (2018), Michael Beasley (2007), Marvin Bagley III (2017, one first-place vote), Harry Giles (2016), Kevin Love (2007), John Wall (2009), DeAndre Ayton (2017), DeMarcus Cousins (2009)

Poll takeaways: Oden/Durant debate rages on

The debate was prevalent throughout the run-up to the 2007 NBA draft and it resurfaced more than 12 years later: Kevin Durant or Greg Oden? The two prospects from the 2006 class were the clear-cut top two in this poll, combining to finish No. 1 on more than half the ballots.

The answer was clear this time though: Durant was the best high school prospect since James. The gap between him and Oden in points was the same as the gap between Oden and the No. 8 prospect (Mayo).

"Oden was the clear-cut No. 1 guy," Young said of the debate at the time. "Nobody even considered Kevin for No. 1. It was the most baked-in thing. At the time, it was a big man's game. We were coming off the heels of Dwight Howard. Dwight Howard was the next Shaq as far as impact to the game for big men. All the preps-to-pros guys were big guys.

"Then Oden comes along. He's doing chin-ups on the rim and he already looked like an NBA vet. And Greg was a humble, shy kid who wasn't really comfortable with everybody looking at him, so there was this upside with him. It was a paint-centric game. Big men, big men, big men. Nobody even thought about Kevin -- but there were times, especially on the travel circuit -- KD's shots weren't even moving the net. I was thinking about that. Thinking about that class, how good Oden and Kevin Durant were. And that gives you some thought as to how dominant Oden was that nobody even thought about KD for 1."

It's also clear there is some revisionist history going on in the poll, not only with Durant finishing ahead of Oden. Rose had two first-place votes and finished tied for third overall, but he was the consensus No. 5 prospect in the 2007 class. According to the RSCI, no services had Rose ranked higher than No. 3 in 2007 and one service had him ranked as low as No. 8.

"In the best freshman conversation, he's 1. He's better than LeBron as a freshman. Bron was good, real good. Emoni is dominant." grassroots basketball circuit veteran, on Bates

One interesting player was Harry Giles, who received votes on four ballots -- more than all but seven players. Though Giles didn't end 2016 as the consensus No. 1 prospect, the last player with the amount of hype Bates has this early in his high school career was probably Giles. He would then tear the ACL and MCL in his left knee in the summer of 2013, and then his right ACL early in his senior season. But pre-injury Giles was a must-see on the recruiting trail.

"Watching Coach K, [Calipari] and Roy [Williams] at [Giles'] 8 a.m. game at [the] Boo Williams [summer league complex], playing up as a rising sophomore will never leave my mind," one industry veteran said. "It was an indelible moment in my career."

Only one of the top seven prospects in our poll was a guard -- which shouldn't be a surprise. When scouts are seeking transcendent and elite talents, they look for something they haven't seen before. Which means guys with size who can shoot like Durant or Bates, the elite passing ability of someone like Simmons, and big men like Oden or Davis or Howard.

"So many [guards] are at least comparable to guys who come out just about every season or two," one longtime evaluator said.

'Bates will be 1'

Though it's still too early for some to consider Bates among the other truly elite prospects of the past 15-plus years, nearly everyone agrees he has no peer at this stage of his high school career.

"In the best freshman conversation, he's 1," a grassroots veteran said. "He's better than LeBron as a freshman. Bron was good, real good. Emoni is dominant."

ESPN recruiting analyst Adam Finkelstein added: "He's the best young prospect I've seen since I started working for ESPN, which was now over 10 years ago. Sometimes the phrase 'generational talent' gets thrown around, but he is the one prospect that has really exemplified that since I started in 2009. That's an enormous burden to put on such a young person, though, and so you just hope he has and maintains the work ethic, maturity and humility to maximize his incredible potential."

One expert polled didn't rank Bates among his top five prospects since LeBron -- but said he would end up at No. 1 in a couple of years.

"Bates will be 1, just not yet," he said. "He has too far to go, the story is still being written. At the same stage, he is by far the best."

"Sometimes the phrase 'generational talent' gets thrown around, but he is the one prospect that has really exemplified that since I started in 2009. That's an enormous burden to put on such a young person, though." ESPN recruiting analyst Adam Finkelstein, on Bates

Durant is the most common comparison for Bates, given his size, frame and shooting ability. And for Young, that puts Bates in the "generational" conversation.

"For sure. The game's evolved so much. It's changed so much. You have to be a guard or a shooter to impact the game in ways other than strength," he said. "To that end, that's where I think Emoni Bates is a potentially generational player. He could be, just because the way the game is played."

Another expert added, "You have what everybody likes to call generational players. LeBron, KD and Emoni would be the three."

Will college basketball ever have Bates?