We are at the exact midpoint of the college basketball season. There have been about 3,000 games played already, and, counting the postseason, there are about 3,000 more still to come.
With this being the college hoops calendar's equivalent of halftime, here are four hot takes I think I can already prove ...
Virginia's a legit national title contender ... and equally as vulnerable as last season
Tony Bennett's team is 15-0 heading into its home game Tuesday night against Virginia Tech. No, the Hoos won't be looking past that one in anticipation of a highly anticipated next game at Duke.
In fact, you might remember Buzz Williams' group was the only ACC team to beat Virginia in the regular season or in the ACC tournament last season, and the Hokies got that job done in Charlottesville. It will be a big week for the Cavaliers.
Perhaps it's a backhanded compliment to Bennett's men that they're so often being praised this season in terms of what they allegedly have "more" of compared to a year ago. More versatility on offense, say, or more depth or even that hardiest of perennial basketball descriptions: more athleticism.
Granted, no team stays exactly the same from year to year, and obviously, Alabama transfer Braxton Key and freshman Kihei Clark weren't even on the roster in 2017-18. But is this Virginia team that revolves largely around the exertions of Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome and De'Andre Hunter really so very different from last year's team that revolved largely around the exertions of Guy, Jerome and Hunter?
So let's lay these cards on the table. The subtext for all this "more"-based praise is, of course, something like: "I know Virginia lost to UMBC by 20 in the 2018 NCAA tournament, but (some nice compliment about how different the team is this season goes here)."
This is entirely understandable. When you lose to a No. 16 seed by 20 points, you surely own that result forever. At the same time, it's also true that there were other results from this same team: 17-1 in the ACC, 9-0 in conference road games, winning the regular-season title by four games, etc.
Maybe this season's team will do about as well as the 2017-18 group on those latter metrics (which is no easy feat; 17-1 will be tough) and, we trust, will do far better in the tournament. But to imply that we can believe in this team's prospects in the tournament because these guys are so day-and-night different is a bit of a data stretch.
Virginia entered the 2018 tournament with an adjusted efficiency margin of plus-32.2 according to KenPom.com, meaning the Cavaliers would be expected to be about 32 points better than an average Division I team over the course of 100 possessions. As of this weekend, the Cavaliers' current number there is plus-32.8.
So strictly speaking, the Hoos really are better. Then again, it's possible the news contained in that improvement of 0.6 points per 100 possessions is actually in what has stayed the same. For a second consecutive season, Bennett's team really is good enough to win the national title.
Duke has issues on the defensive glass
As both the NBA and college games have become steadily more perimeter-oriented, we've seen a not terribly surprising decline in offensive rebound rates. With the floor more widely spaced than ever before, there are just fewer opportunities in which players are in position to record offensive boards. And when offensive rebound percentages go down, defensive rebound rates go up.
But not at No. 1-ranked Duke. Ordinarily defensive rebounding is the unglamorous afterthought of the sport, but it's becoming a real issue for Mike Krzyzewski's team.
After three ACC games, the Blue Devils have pulled down just 63 percent of their opponents' missed shots. Even that low number obscures a trend moving in the wrong direction.
In Duke's last two games, against Wake Forest and Florida State, Coach K's men rebounded just 57 percent of the opposition's missed shots. Yes, Zion Williamson missed the second half against the Seminoles, but the problem was evident against the Demon Deacons as well.
The Blue Devils' best defensive rebounders on paper are Williamson and Jack White. Those two are on the floor together regularly but not for extended durations, and more importantly, the ACC has some really good offensive rebounding teams.
In addition to FSU (which dunked more often against Duke than has any other Blue Devils opponent), NC State, Louisville and, naturally, North Carolina are all showing healthy offensive rebound rates early in conference play. Coach K's men have been excellent all season long in terms of forcing misses, but based on what we've seen over the past couple of games, keep an eye on opponents' second chances.
Ole Miss' Terence Davis could be your SEC Player of the Year
Emphasis on "could." Yes, Tennessee's Grant Williams is the defending champion here, and he could get some competition from his own team in the form of Admiral Schofield.
Be that as it may, who in their right mind thought, say, a month ago that Davis could even be considered in this discussion? The 6-foot-4 senior has elevated his game almost literally across the board.
This marks the third consecutive season in which Davis has functioned as the Rebels' featured scorer, but we've never seen him do what he's doing now. As a senior, he has become a bona fide perimeter threat for the first time in his career, knocking down 42 percent of his 3s.
Davis is also posting the highest assist rate of his career as a scoring wing, and he's doing so while continuing to pitch in on the defensive glass and even blocking the occasional shot. The year-to-year improvement recorded by Ole Miss has been notable for being dramatic on both sides of the ball, and Davis embodies that transformation within one player.
If Williams and Schofield split the SEC POY votes of those predisposed to go with a Volunteer, Davis could be waiting in the wings. Certainly he's deserving.
The Big 12 might already be a two-team race
At the risk of making far-reaching pronouncements on the state of the Big 12 race in mid-January, you do have to like the prospects going forward for 4-0 Texas Tech and 3-1 Kansas.
The Red Raiders have the advantage of being in first place right now. They also have Jarrett Culver, who, not to put too fine a point on it, could win Big 12 Player of the Year honors. Lastly, Chris Beard's guys already have two road wins under their belts in conference play, with victories at West Virginia and Texas.
As for Kansas, well, it's Kansas and we're talking about the Big 12 title. Let it only be added that all is not necessarily lost now that Udoka Azubuike is gone for the season. Dedric Lawson will push Culver for POY honors, Marcus Garrett might be the best all-around defender in the nation and Ochai Agbaji looks highly promising as a freshman.
Besides, the rest of the field appears to be a step behind the Raiders and the Jayhawks. Since beating KU in Ames, Iowa State has struggled both on the glass and at scoring inside the arc. Both Oklahoma and Kansas State have been limited on offense (though the Wildcats do have Dean Wade back on the floor now).
The one wild card here might be Texas. The Longhorns could, certainly, turn this entire discussion around with a win at Kansas (Monday, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN). Kerwin Roach has been making his 2s in conference play, and Jaxson Hayes is an outstanding rim defender. Speaking of outstanding defenders, anywhere you look in the Big 12, you see excellent defense and close games. Again, that may be a point in favor of Texas Tech and KU, who can turn to Culver and Lawson, respectively, for scoring. Don't be shocked if those two teams take this race down to the wire in 2019.