Through the first two months of the season, a top tier of potential national championship contenders has begun to emerge. Virginia and Michigan, two of the three remaining unbeaten teams, make the cut, as do Duke and Tennessee, the two best one-loss teams in the country. A fully healthy Gonzaga group rounds out the top five now that Killian Tillie and Geno Crandall are back in the fold.
One could make the case for Michigan State, but we'll wait until the Spartans are fully healthy with Joshua Langford (though they've arguably played better lately with him sidelined). The loss of Udoka Azubuike could doom Kansas' hopes.
None of the top five teams is perfect, though. I reached out to coaches who have played these teams with one question: If they could get some immediate help, what would they look to add?
Duke: Perimeter shooting
Duke is No. 1 in the polls and the favorite to win the national championship, but while the Blue Devils likely have the top two picks in June's NBA draft, they also have a couple of weaknesses. Multiple coaches who faced Duke this season pointed to a lack of consistent shooting as the biggest potential derailment. "Seems obvious, but another shooter is needed," one coach said. The Blue Devils rank in the bottom third nationally in 3-point percentage (32.2 percent), 3-point attempt rate (36.2 percent) and percentage of points off 3-pointers (25.9 percent). With Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett virtually unguardable going to the rim and Duke's elite transition ability, it hasn't been a huge issue yet, but it could be a factor as teams are scouted better and opponents look to take the Blue Devils out of their game.
Michigan: Perimeter depth
John Beilein's unbeaten Wolverines have one of the elite defenses in the country, and the emergence of Jordan Poole has given them a legitimate third option to go with Ignas Brazdeikis and Charles Matthews. That said, Michigan ranks No. 344 nationally in bench minutes and essentially has four players capable of playing the three perimeter positions. Against Indiana on Sunday, Zavier Simpson, Poole and Matthews all played at least 37 minutes apiece. Against Penn State, it was at least 33 apiece. "Depth at the 1, 2, 3 -- they have none," one opposing coach said. "Fatigue or foul trouble could really derail them. Those guys play a ton of minutes." Eli Brooks has provided minutes off the bench on the perimeter, but the Wolverines don't have much beyond him.
Tennessee: Scoring guard who can shoot
The Volunteers have just one blemish on their record: a six-point overtime defeat to Kansas on a neutral court. In that game, Grant Williams fouled out and Admiral Schofield had to carry the load for most of the final few minutes. Williams and Schofield are All-American players, but multiple opposing coaches said Rick Barnes' team would be even tougher to beat if it had a guard who could create his own shot off the bounce and make shots from the perimeter. "They have nobody that can really break you down and make skill plays," one coach said. "And the one shooter they have has been hurt." Jordan Bone has emerged as one of the best point guards in the SEC, but he shoots just 25.5 percent from 3-point range. Lamonte Turner has played just five games this season, and his 3-point shooting has dropped to 25 percent. The Volunteers rank in the bottom 30 nationally in both 3-point attempt percentage and percentage of points off 3s.
Virginia: One more creative offensive player
It isn't much of a surprise, but the Cavaliers are once again an elite defensive unit that grinds teams down with its slow pace, and this season, the Cavaliers are more efficient and dangerous offensively than they've been in recent years. Kyle Guy is a knockdown shooter and Ty Jerome can create for himself and others. De'Andre Hunter has added a different dimension with his ability to make shots and force matchup problems, and freshman Kihei Clark has enabled those guys to move off the ball. But Virginia still has only one or two guys who can go and get a bucket. "Another guy that can score off the bounce," one coach said. "Guy and Ty Jerome are great players. But if they had one more guy on the perimeter that could get his own shot."
Gonzaga: Continued health
During the 2018 portion of Gonzaga's schedule, a couple weaknesses emerged. Josh Perkins was the lone true point guard, and he had to play nearly 40 minutes against most of the tougher opponents. Moreover, the Bulldogs had at times looked for another back-to-the-basket scorer. Freshman Filip Petrusev took some of the burden off Rui Hachimura, but he had been inconsistent. Fortunately for Gonzaga, last Saturday's win over Santa Clara saw the return of Tillie and Crandall. Tillie was one of the best players in the league last season, a 6-foot-10 big who shot 47.9 percent from 3-point range and was a versatile, high-level defensive player. Crandall is a graduate transfer who can play both guard spots. "I think they are a pretty complete team," one opposing coach said. "Especially with Tillie and Crandall healthy." Now Mark Few just needs them to stay that way.
Six other things on my mind
1. A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, I looked at the recruiting stories of some of the best mid-major stars in the country. One player we left out was Hofstra's Justin Wright-Foreman, who scored 42 points and hit a buzzer-beating 3 to beat Northeastern last weekend. He's averaging 26.7 points this season and is the main reason the Pride have emerged as a potential CAA favorite.
How did Wright-Foreman end up on Long Island? The answer is confusing Las Vegas addresses.
Hofstra recruited Wright-Foreman throughout his junior season and had him atop its board heading into July. After an up-and-down first two weeks in which he struggled with consistency and playing time, the Pride's staff had to make a final decision on whether to go all-in on him in Las Vegas.
Head coach Joe Mihalich was scheduled to see Wright-Foreman on the opening Wednesday night during the third July live period back in 2014, but he couldn't find the Cashman Center to watch Wright-Foreman and his NY Rens team. Hofstra assistant coach Mike Farrelly was in attendance, and Wright-Foreman had a solid game against Florida Elite, but it wasn't a performance to truly move the needle.
The next afternoon, Mihalich had a flight scheduled to depart, but he had time to see one more game.
"He had a choice for the 12 p.m. game," Farrelly said, saying it was between Wright-Foreman and one other recruit at the time. "He says, 'Well, we have to make a decision on Justin,' so he goes to that game."
Mihalich made the right decision: Wright-Foreman scored 48 points versus Ohio Basketball Club.
"Coach was calling me every four minutes, 'This kid is putting on an absolute show. He just hit another 3,'" Farrelly said. "We would hang up the phone, and the phone would ring three or four minutes later. 'He just keeps scoring.' I probably got four of those calls."
"He reclaimed his status as a top recruit for us," Farrelly said.
Had Mihalich found the Cashman Center on Wednesday, though, chances are he might not have gone to Wright-Foreman's Thursday game and would've gone to see the other prospect instead.
Said Farrelly: "We might have missed that one, and then who knows?"
Two months later, Wright-Foreman committed to Hofstra. Four years later, he might lead the team back to the NCAA tournament.
2. WHAT KANSAS WILL LOOK LIKE without Azubuike is one of the biggest talking points in college basketball right now. The 7-footer is going to miss the rest of the season with a hand injury, and Bill Self will have to adjust yet again. Azubuike missed five games already this season (heading into Wednesday), and according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Jayhawks' efficiency difference in those five games was plus-5.9. In the nine games without him, it was plus-16.2. Kansas' two losses also came without Azubuike.
Without Azubuike, Self has gone with a smaller lineup, using Dedric Lawson at the 5 and surrounding him with Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes, Lagerald Vick and Marcus Garrett. According to Hoop Lens, that quintet has been used on just four fewer possessions than the usual starting lineup (Azubuike instead of Garrett) but is 0.20 points per possession worse.
When Azubuike missed the Big 12 tournament last season, Self slotted in Mitch Lightfoot, but those were the pre-Lawson days. Kansas has improved depth this season, with K.J. Lawson and David McCormack joining Lightfoot as capable reinforcements. Silvio de Sousa would help immensely, but he's still in a holding pattern regarding his eligibility.
Self did burn Ochai Agbaji's redshirt on Wednesday night -- and then proceeded to play him 25 minutes against TCU. He was a factor as a small-ball 4.
3. THERE ARE STILL 15 ESPN 100 PROSPECTS uncommitted from the class of 2019 -- and eight of them are considered five-stars. The two top-50 players closest to a commitment could be Isaiah Stewart (No. 5) and Keion Brooks (No. 34). For Stewart, the school getting most of the buzz right now is Washington. Mike Hopkins has a strong relationship with Stewart from his days at Syracuse, and the Huskies are building a strong core after the recent addition of Kentucky transfer Quade Green. This would be a huge coup for Hopkins and the Huskies if they pull it off.
As for Brooks, it sounds like a battle between Indiana and Michigan State. Kentucky was perceived as a serious contender a couple months ago, but the two Big Ten programs are favorites heading down the stretch.
4. AT THE MIDWAY POINT OF THE SEASON there are two clear-cut favorites for Coach of the Year honors: Michigan's Beilein and Texas Tech's Chris Beard. Beilein's team has won 29 of its past 30 games and is back among the nation's elite despite losing three starters from a group that reached the national title game. Beard's Red Raiders were picked seventh in the Big 12 preseason poll yet are ranked eighth nationally right now. They have the best defense in the country and could once again push Kansas for the Big 12 title.
5. KENTUCKY FRESHMAN POINT GUARD Ashton Hagans has been a revelation over the past month, emerging as one of the best defensive players in the country. He's averaging better than two steals per game despite not becoming a regular starter until December. Hagans had eight steals against North Carolina and has racked up 19 steals in his past four games.
"Ashton's been a pit bull since middle school," said Chris Williams, Hagans' former AAU coach. "Always made it a point to go 110 percent on defense. Always look at it as defense leads to offense. His father taught him that -- to always lock up. He's been that way, I promise you. Just a knack for defense."
After some early struggles, Hagans is becoming more of a factor on the offensive end, averaging 13.7 points in his past three games and dishing out at least three assists in each of his past eight games while minimizing his turnovers.
"I knew he wasn't going to struggle all year. He's getting comfortable now," Williams said. "The SEC is in trouble."
6. HERE'S A SURPRISING NOTE: If you take out the first month of the season and look from Dec. 1 onward, VCU has the 12th-best adjusted efficiency margin in the country, according to BartTorvik.com. Mike Rhoades has the Rams playing high-level basketball as they enter conference play, with the lone losses in that time frame coming by eight at Virginia and by four to CAA contender Charleston. The Rams also beat Texas and dominated Wichita State. The Atlantic 10 is down this season, but VCU -- which owns an elite defense -- could be the favorite moving forward.