After West Virginia's overtime loss to Oklahoma on Wednesday, it's fair to take a critical look at the Mountaineers. The Sooners attacked WVU's heralded press throughout the game, making successful first passes, forcing West Virginia to fall back into half-court defense and driving to the rim. Oklahoma coughed up the ball just 12 times, and as my colleague John Gasaway details here, if West Virginia can't force turnovers, its lack of defensive rebounding could really hurt it.
But from a Giant Killers perspective, we have to report: West Virginia is putting up numbers that we've never seen before, and that will serve the Mountaineers extremely well in March.
To see why, take a moment to appreciate the brand of ball-hogging that WVU has perfected over the past three years. Coach Bob Huggins went to full-court pressure in 2014-15, after the Mountaineers finished 30-35 in their first two Big 12 seasons and after consulting with legendary coach Kevin Mackey, whose "run and stun" style led Cleveland State to two Giant Killings as a No. 14 seed in the 1986 NCAA Tournament.
It's not just that the Mountaineers apply full-court pressure on 46 percent of plays, by far the most in the NCAA. They also mix up their looks: At any time, West Virginia might leave an inbound pass undefended to make life harder for the man who catches it or send two defenders sprinting straight to the ball or shift to zone. Huggins & Co. also track opponents' passing during games and then set traps at key areas around the court.
Those adjustments didn't work particularly well against Oklahoma, but for the season, the results have been astounding: West Virginia is forcing turnovers on 31.7 percent of opponent possessions, which is not only the highest rate in the country but also the highest in the 16-year history of tempo-free statistics. (The only other squad to break 30 percent was Alabama A&M in 2001-02, led by the great Desmond Cambridge, who never got to play in the NCAA tournament.)
West Virginia's relentless, scrambling, loud yet disciplined pressure often leaves other teams shell-shocked. Zane Waterman, a big man for Manhattan, had 11 turnovers in 19 minutes against the Mountaineers in November. Facing WVU eight days later, New Hampshire lost the ball 34 times, after which UNH Coach Bill Herrion said he didn't want to schedule West Virginia as an opponent anymore. Last month, Oklahoma State wasn't able to run a set play against the Mountaineers until midway through the second half.
Okay, so that's "Press Virginia." But what's really special about West Virginia is that the Mountaineers apply such pressure while hitting the offensive glass as hard as Huggins' teams always have. WVU seizes 40.5 percent of their own missed shots, which ranks fourth in the nation, and is one of just two teams (along with North Carolina) that is over 40 percent in each of the past three seasons.
As we wrote two years ago when West Virginia first caught the attention of our statistical model, there's no theoretical reason a team can't grab lots of offensive boards and also grab lots of turnovers. Practically, however, that requires too much exertion at both ends of the floor for most squads. Fordham, for example, ranks second to WVU in turnover percentage and forces a ton of steals but is No. 325 in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage. Louisville is probably the only team in the country with the energy, depth and philosophical commitment to match West Virginia's intensity at both skills.
It turns out this combination of offensive rebounds rebounds and turnovers is incredibly valuable for Giants in the NCAA tournament. If you give yourself second chances and disrupt the other team's flow, you severely limit any opponent's ability to string together scoring runs. They just won't have the possessions to do it. Even leaving aside West Virginia's demolitions of weak nonconference opponents, the Mountaineers have had games this season in which they simply took more shots than their opponents did: 20 more than TCU, 16 more than Illinois, 13 more than Baylor.
There's more: In previous seasons, West Virginia needed to amass possessions because, as Mackey bluntly told Huggins, their guards couldn't shoot. In the 2014-2015 season, West Virginia's effective field goal percentage was just 46.1 percent, 291st in the nation. But as the Mountaineers have grown into their defensive scheme, now quarterbacked by senior Nathan Adrian from the top of the press, they are generating points in transition. And a few guys have developed who can hit open jumpers, like Daxter Miles Jr., and drive to the basket, like Jevon Carter, who had 23 points and 11 rebounds on Wednesday. West Virginia is now shooting 54.1 percent on two-point attempts, which ranks 39th in the nation.
Finally, West Virginia has corrected a glaring weakness from last season. The Mountaineers committed turnovers on 20 percent of possessions in 2015-16 (291st), a problem that wrecked them in the NCAA tournament, when they coughed it up 22 times against Stephen F. Austin, another team built to generate possessions. In response, Huggins began this season by focusing on ball security, telling his team: "We're going to stop turning it over, or we're going to be the best-conditioned team in college basketball history because [you're] going to be over there on the treadmill." WVU's turnover rate has plunged by more than five percentage points to one of the 10 best in the country.
Add it all up, and our model says West Virginia's statistical profile would add a staggering 17.6 points per 100 possessions to its strength against an average Giant Killer in the NCAA tournament and the Mountaineers would have a 99.5 percent chance of beating such an underdog. Seriously, those are the kinds of numbers that inspired scientists of past eras to invent quantum mechanics.
Because West Virginia's rotation runs 10 players deep, no Mountaineer posts especially impressive per-game stats, so it's easy to overlook the team's efficiency. Plus, because Huggins is an unglamorous coach, it's easy to assume this is just one more of his blue-collar squads. It isn't. West Virginia beats you in the ways that our research has shown are crucial for successful tournament teams, whether it's coming down with 20 offensive rebounds against TCU or forcing Baylor into 29 turnovers. And the Mountaineers' three losses this season have come by a total of seven points.
Giant Killers isn't built to predict the national championship. But our model says this is one team built to make the Sweet Sixteen.
Thanks to Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson of Furman University for research assistance.