Is this the year Kansas' Big 12 title streak comes to an end?
With about a third of conference play complete, we'll break down each of the major conference races, including the much-discussed Big 12 race, with the help of ESPN's Basketball Power Index.
Below you will find BPI's conference projections, which are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season. The percentages reflect a team's chance to win at least a share of its regular-season conference title. Because we're looking at potential shared titles, the percentages can add up to more than 100.
For simplicity, we kept it to the three favorites in each of the major conferences. For a full breakdown of every conference and team in Division I, the BPI index has more.
ACC
North Carolina Tar Heels: 64 percent
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 33 percent
Virginia Cavaliers: 13 percent
The ACC is wide open with six teams -- North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Louisville, Duke and Florida State -- boasting at least an 8 percent chance to win a share of the conference title. No other Division I conference has more than four teams with that high of a likelihood.
Although Notre Dame is the lone undefeated team in ACC play, BPI favors the Tar Heels, who host the Irish on Feb. 4, going forward. North Carolina looked shaky to start conference play, but after five straight victories, including an 85-68 win against Syracuse on Monday, BPI likes UNC's chances to win its second straight ACC regular-season title and seventh such title in the past 11 years. BPI favors the Tar Heels, but a case can certainly be made for any of the other five teams listed above; Notre Dame has the schedule, Virginia has the consistency, Louisville has the defense, Duke has the pedigree, and Florida State has the early wins to make a run for the title.
Big 12
West Virginia Mountaineers: 61 percent
Kansas Jayhawks: 53 percent
Baylor Bears: 9 percent
Is this the year that Kansas' streak of 12 straight regular-season conference titles comes to an end? Or will the Jayhawks extend their mind-boggling streak to 13, which would tie UCLA (1967-1979) for the longest in Division I history?
According to BPI, there's a 47 percent chance that Kansas is not the Big 12 champion at season's end. Yes, we know that Kansas has more conference titles than home losses in the past 12 seasons, but others in the Big 12 have improved, and the Jayhawks have a difficult, back-loaded remaining schedule.
West Virginia is the No. 1 team in BPI, and it currently has a 43 percent chance to win both of its regular-season games against Kansas; the Mountaineers have an 80 percent chance to win at home on Jan. 24 and a 53 percent chance in Lawrence on Feb. 13. But West Virginia isn't the only team with the potential to knock off Kansas. The Jayhawks still have to play five of their six toughest conference games, including road games against BPI No. 14 Baylor, No. 31 Texas Tech and No. 33 Kansas State.
Big East
Villanova Wildcats: 96 percent
Creighton Bluejays: 6 percent
Butler Bulldogs: 5 percent
The Wildcats are the most likely major conference team to win at least a share of their regular-season conference title. And why wouldn't they be? The defending champions rank No. 2 in BPI and boast arguably the nation's top player in Josh Hart. Though Villanova lost to Butler earlier this year, the Wildcats have a 26 percent chance to win all of their remaining scheduled conference games, including an 89 percent chance to beat the Bulldogs at home on Feb. 22.
These projections are in no way an indictment on the strength of Creighton or Butler. Both of those teams rank in the top 25 in BPI and have a number of marquee wins. Rather, Villanova's one-sided projection is an indication of how strong BPI expects the Wildcats to be going forward.
Big Ten
Wisconsin Badgers: 71 percent
Purdue Boilermakers: 40 percent
Maryland Terrapins: 5 percent
Every team in the Big Ten already has a conference loss, so the case can be made for a number of teams to emerge as the favorite. BPI sees two clear front-runners in Wisconsin and Purdue, who both rank in the BPI top 15 and have manageable schedules going forward. The Badgers are 3-1 in conference play with their only loss coming at Purdue, while the Boilermakers are 3-2 with their losses coming at home to Minnesota (in overtime) and at Iowa.
Many might wonder why Maryland (16-2, 4-1 in conference play) has only a 5 percent chance to win the Big Ten despite sitting atop the standings. The Terrapins have an impressive record, but they rank 51st in adjusted net efficiency. With some difficult road tests remaining, BPI expects Maryland to win an average of 10 or 11 conference games, which should be enough to make the NCAA tournament but likely not enough to clinch a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.
Pac-12
Oregon Ducks: 56 percent
UCLA Bruins: 50 percent
Arizona Wildcats: 28 percent
Oregon, Arizona and UCLA have won the past four Pac-12 titles, and it appears to be a three-team race among these powerhouses again this season. After slow starts by Oregon and Arizona, all three teams entered conference play at their peak and have ridden that momentum to a combined 15-1 Pac-12 record.
Of course, UCLA carries the lone conference loss of the bunch, falling in Eugene in its Pac-12 opener. That game is the main reason Oregon is favored to win the Pac-12, but UCLA will have a chance to return the favor at home on Feb. 9. BPI gives the Bruins a 72 percent chance to beat the Ducks in that game and a 38 percent chance to win both of their games against Arizona. Ultimately, UCLA (No. 7 in BPI) is expected to be the strongest of the Pac-12 trio, but Oregon (No. 10 in BPI) and Arizona (No. 18 in BPI) are undefeated in Pac-12 play with a number of important early wins.
SEC
Kentucky Wildcats: 82 percent
Florida Gators: 35 percent
South Carolina Gamecocks: 1 percent
Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina are a combined 14-0 in SEC play, but BPI sees one clear favorite in this conference race. Led by the SEC's leading scorer, Malik Monk, the Wildcats are averaging 121.3 points per 100 possessions and 93.6 points per game. Both of those marks rank second nationally. Kentucky has absolutely dominated the SEC thus far (plus-23.4 points per game margin) and now has a 14 percent chance to run the table in conference play.
The Wildcats rank No. 4 in BPI, but the Gators are not far behind at No. 11. Florida is not flashy but gets the job done with a top-25 offense and defense in adjusted efficiency. While South Carolina has an impressive record, (14-3, 4-0 in SEC play) BPI needs to see a little more from the Gamecocks. They have a great chance to move up in the projections in the next week as they host Florida on Wednesday (29 percent chance to win) and head to Kentucky on Saturday (6 percent chance to win).
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