From a conventional standpoint, you could say West Virginia is having a nice bounce-back season. After missing the NCAA tournament for two straight years, Bob Huggins decided to turn up the defensive pressure, and on Monday, the Mountaineers upset Kansas for their 20th win.

Actually, something much more exciting is brewing in Morgantown: West Virginia has improved drastically in precisely the statistical categories that are most important in a Giant Killer matchup. The Mountaineers are 23rd in our basic power rankings, about where they stand nationally according to most other metrics-based systems. But our spreadsheets say that if WVU plays as a big underdog, its key traits would add a whopping 16.9 points per 100 possessions to its overall strength. In fact, we see West Virginia as the most lethal Giant Killer in the entire country, with a staggering 77.9 percent chance to beat an average Giant.

Our statistical model started flagging West Virginia early this season, but honestly, the numbers were so extreme, we wanted a bigger sample size before drawing any conclusions. Now it’s safe to admit: If our model could dress itself, it would wear a Huggins-inspired sweatsuit.

Huggins’ teams always hit the offensive boards. West Virginia is grabbing 40.3 percent of its own missed shots, ranking seventh in the NCAA, and this season is the fourth time the Mountaineers have surpassed 40 percent in Huggins’ eight seasons as head coach. But West Virginia’s outstanding teams from 2007-08 to 2010-11 piled up offensive rebounds while playing at a crawl, closing off the perimeter and generally grinding opponents down. In contrast, this year’s model drives other teams crazy with constant pressure, trapping them in corners and harassing them the full length of the court. Monday night's upset win over Kansas was typical: Jayhawks players repeatedly found themselves dribbling off various body parts and stepping out of bounds, and big man Cliff Alexander went to the bench after six confused minutes, never to return. West Virginia now leads the nation in steal percentage by a large margin, and is forcing turnovers on 29.7 percent of opponent possessions, the highest rate of any team in 13 years.

There’s no logical reason a team can’t seize lots of offensive rebounds and generate lots of turnovers. But in practice, teams that exert themselves on the offensive glass often forgo the kind of pressure that yields steals and turnovers. Quinnipiac, for example, ranks fourth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, but dead last in turnover percentage. Indeed, 27 teams have posted offensive rebound rates of 40 percent or higher in the past five years, and they averaged TOs on just 18.7 percent of opponent possessions, far below WVU’s current rate. West Virginia is one of only three teams to rank in the top 20 in both categories this season. (The other two are Kentucky, which does everything well, and Stephen F. Austin, which we’ll be writing a lot more about in the coming weeks.)

The Mountaineers’ new scheme, which hearkens back to Huggins’ days in Cincinnati, requires a huge amount of energy from its athletes. Indeed, Kevin Mackey, who coached 14-seed Cleveland State to two Giant Killings in the 1986 NCAA tournament, talked on Huggins’ radio show last week about why most teams shy away from this kind of pressing.

“They say they’re going to do it, but at the end of the day, it’s not in their DNA,” Mackey said, citing Louisville and VCU as exceptions. “They’re afraid it’s going to turn into layup drills and they’re not going to be able to get their kids to play hard enough.”

But love him or hate him, Huggins always recruits hard workers. And last summer, advised by Mackey, he recognized the chance to add ball-hawking to West Virginia’s ball-hogging ways. “When we saw the agility of the perimeter guys we had coming in, Jevon Carter and Daxter Milers, we knew we could be very active and very energetic,” Huggins said in an interview on Wednesday. Now, he has a deep, young squad that constantly rejuices the Mountaineers’ game, filled with players who not only bang the glass, but press for 94 feet, possession after possession. “It takes a lot of work,” Huggins said. “But it takes increased energy to play against that, too.”

And here’s the thing: While Huggins is not an analytics maven per se, he and his staff chart “effort plays” -- deflections, steals, loose balls grabbed, offensive rebounds -- that overlap heavily with the kind of high-risk/high-reward tactics that characterize successful Giant Killers. By rewarding players -- such as Jonathan Holton -- who grab both offensive boards and TOs, West Virginia has become one of the rare squads to excel at both. The combination is unusual but extraordinarily effective in March, because it gives teams a double-booster shot of extra possessions. Giant Killers need as many shots as they can get to overcome superior opponents, and this year, West Virginia has their hands on the ball all the time.

Critics, including some of West Virginia’s own fans, complain the Mountaineers can’t sink layups or bombs, and cold shooting has led to blowout losses at Texas, Oklahoma and Iowa State. On the whole, though, Huggins’ tradeoffs are working. While WVU has a dreadful 46 effective field goal percentage, ranking 287th in the country, they nab so many offensive rebounds that they score 107.8 adjusted points per possession, ranking 63rd in the country. Meanwhile, on defense, the Mountaineers are just as abysmal against enemy shooters, giving up a horrid 51.9 effective field goal percentage (also ranking 287th) -- but they seize so many turnovers, they are even more efficient against opposing teams, giving up just 92.6 adjusted points per possession (ranking 25th). On Monday, Kansas shot better than the Mountaineers by a wide margin from both 2- and 3-point range. But WVU grabbed 22 offensive rebounds, forced 14 turnovers and took 15 more shots than the Jayhawks. That was a recipe for a classic takedown -- and it’s a roadmap for the tournament.

Before the Mountaineers’ win against Kansas, Joe Lunardi had West Virginia pegged as an 8-seed. The Mountaineers could inch up if they continue to play well, and even play as a Giant if they reach a 6-seed. In that case, our model also projects WVU to be extremely strong, with 91.9 percent odds of defeating an average Killer. Or it could drop to the point where it would play as a Killer in the opening round, if it falters against a stretch of five very tough Big 12 opponents to close the season. Wherever they land, Huggins thinks the Mountaineers will be a tougher out in the second round than the first. “For the first game, it’s easier to develop some familiarity with a team, because you have a week to prepare,” he said. “On the second day, it will be harder if you don’t see what we do very often.”

It’s very early to project the round of 32, but if a top dog arrives there to face West Virginia, the numbers say it better watch out.

Thanks to Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson of Furman University for research assistance.