You might have heard that this is the "Year of the Freshmen," and maybe you've wondered how we can be so sure after only one weekend of games.
There are no guarantees, of course, but this does appear to be an uncommonly strong group, one that includes Harry Giles, Josh Jackson, Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Edrice "Bam" Adebayo and De'Aaron Fox. We've already compared this bunch favorably with the storied class of 2013-14, one headlined by the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle.
That's a high standard to match, to say the least. Assuming the freshman class of 2016-17 lives up to its billing, what will that look like, exactly? And what have we seen from these players thus far that indicates they can earn such praise?
Here's what we think we know about what a truly "special" class will look like, and why this current group may merit that label:
Even with a class this strong, there probably will be a surprisingly small number of all-conference freshmen
Each season only six freshmen, on average, are honored as being one of the 10 best players in their respective conferences (whether that entails making a five-member all-league "first" team, a 10-member first team or even a five-member "second" team following an identically sized first unit).
For what it's worth, this number has been steady over the past four seasons -- never higher than seven, never lower than five. It might seem like a small number at first blush, but as a group these new stars are competing in a zero-sum game for individual accolades with the other 75 percent of the sport's players (sophomores, juniors and seniors). When you think of the competition for all-conference honors in the ACC this season, for example, you get a sense of what even the most talented freshmen are up against.
Maybe NBA draft destiny shouldn't matter ... but NBA draft destiny matters
Part of the legend of that 2013-14 class was cemented after it departed the college game. Wiggins, Parker, Embiid and Gordon were selected with the first, second, third and fourth overall picks in the 2014 NBA draft. To this day, the 2013-14 freshman class is the only one in the one-and-done era to have accounted for all of the ensuing draft's first four picks.
Needless to say, this is not an entirely fair standard with which to judge classes. Freshmen can't control which international players become eligible this season, or which veteran college stars are going to blow up Buddy Hield-style in any given year. Nevertheless, domination of the top of the subsequent draft is one of the ways a "year of the freshmen" proves that it really has come to pass. Certainly this class has the talent required to exercise that kind of domination.
Even a freshman as talented as Fultz might find it difficult to markedly improve his team
I've touched on this previously, so I'll merely summarize what research on the fate of past elite freshmen suggests: Fultz might record individual stats for Washington this season that don't compare all that well with freshmen playing for national-title-contending programs.
That has been the pattern in the one-and-done era, elite freshmen playing for non-blue-chip programs have recorded offensive ratings that are significantly lower than what their similarly rated peers at top programs have posted. At a minimum Fultz will be swimming against the same "great prospect on a so-so team" tide that faced predecessors like Ben Simmons and D'Angelo Russell.
Still, FIBA stats indicate Fultz could well be the real deal
This past summer Fultz played under Texas coach Shaka Smart, as Team USA took gold at the FIBA Americas U18 championships. The level of competition wasn't always uniformly daunting (Team USA won one of its games by 41 points), but FIBA competitions are rare occasions where we can see highly touted freshmen to be playing under college coaches in situations where individual glory on the stat sheet takes a back seat to the success of the national team.
As it happens, Fultz performed exceptionally well in those circumstances, converting a rather remarkable 66 percent of his 2-pointers and taking outstanding care of the ball (only 11 turnovers in 439 personal possessions). Again, not every defense Fultz faced over the course of five games was particularly ferocious, but these numbers are still in line with what one would expect from an elite lead guard playing in international competition.
Jackson appears to be in a perfect position to excel as a freshman
Each player has his own unique characteristics, of course, but it's not as if we haven't seen a player of Jackson's type do great things at the same position and in the same uniform. Three seasons ago Wiggins more than lived up to the hype as a small forward at Kansas, leading his team to yet another Big 12 title and earning himself consensus second-team All-American honors.
So we know a player of Jackson's type can explode, as a freshman, playing for Bill Self. Better still, Jackson will be part of a Jayhawks rotation that's much more experienced than the one that featured Wiggins. With teammates such as Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham, Jackson will have the the kind of surrounding cast that can allow a one-and-done player to be effective and properly utilized instead of being overworked.
But, yes, (a very large) part of this discussion comes down to Giles and his health
There is a strong tendency for the lion's share of the accolades in any given recruiting class to be won by the players rated at the very top of that group. And Giles is rated at the very top of his freshman class.
As is usual in these situations, no one who knows anything about the state of the freshman's health is saying anything. That leaves the field open to speculation, and it's surely not a good thing the possibility that Giles won't play at all this season is being spoken aloud as one of the scenarios in the mix.
Giles and Mike Krzyzewski will have to do what's best for the freshman's current health and future prospects. But if Giles does play and is able to do so at full speed, history suggests that an already strong Duke team will be strengthened even further and that this really could be the year of the freshman that we have longed for. With talents such as Fultz, Jackson and, possibly, a healthy Giles, this really could be the year.