Editor's note: The 2016-17 college basketball season will be the Year of the Freshmen, featuring what could be the best class we've ever seen. Over the next two weeks, we will get familiar with the best of the best, examining who they are and where each of the top 10 prospects in the 2016 ESPN 100 came from.
Read more: No. 10 Duke's Frank Jackson
| No. 9 Kentucky's Malik Monk
No. 8 Michigan State's Miles Bridges | No. 7 Washington's Markelle Fultz
No. 6 Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox | No. 5 Kentucky's Bam Adebayo
No. 4 UCLA's Lonzo Ball | No. 3 Duke's Jayson Tatum
No. 2 Kansas' Josh Jackson | No. 1 Duke's Harry Giles
Harry Giles was going to be one of the biggest stories of the college basketball season regardless of his injury status. He is the No. 1 freshman entering the sport and has been considered one of the best players in the country since the moment anyone watched him play high school basketball. But multiple injuries and surgeries over the past few years have raised plenty of questions about Giles, both for this year and moving forward.
Injuries
Giles first suffered a major injury in 2013, when he tore the ACL, MCL and meniscus in his left knee playing for USA Basketball. He recovered to dominate the AAU circuit as a rising senior but then tore the ACL in his right knee last November just as his high school season was getting underway. Giles was expected to be ready for the start of his freshman season at Duke, but Duke announced last month that he needed an arthroscopy on his left knee and would miss at least the first couple weeks of the season.
Outside the program, there's a general feeling of caution, if not pessimism, regarding the injury.
"There's still lots of questions," one NBA scout said. "There's concern anytime a guy has had two knee injuries like he's had, and he hasn't even competed day in, day out like he will in college. Now he's got to compete at this level, night in and night out. Mentally and physically, he has to get back again, competing against guys that are just as athletic as him. How will he make that adjustment?"
No one has seen Giles play since last fall, and no one has seen him play in a consistently competitive game in more than two years.
"At this point, it's up for grabs," one coach said. "No one has seen him since the second injury. Even just how word has filtered out -- another surgery, couple setbacks with the knee -- it has an eerie feel about it.
"It's a major red flag. I'm one of those people that probably doesn't expect Harry Giles to have the type of career that I expected him to have two, three years ago. There was a time [when] he was playing at full health where my expectation level was 10-, 12-year NBA All-Star. It's probably unlikely at this point."
Shut it down?
If Giles misses the first few weeks of the season and there seems to be no progress or update on his return timeline, there will be whispers about him sitting out the entire season to fully recover. But is it the smart move? There's no consensus among coaches and scouts.
"I would shut it down," one coach said. "If you can find a team that has a real belief in you, if you can structure the workout in a way that minimizes injury risk, that would probably be the safest course of action for Harry Giles and his family to take. If he comes back and gets hurt a third time, then what? You run the risk of teams losing faith in you as a prospect.
"It eliminates the possibility of getting hurt in a game, but not sure how much healthier that makes you in the long term. It prevents a public injury."
On the other hand, some NBA teams are going to want to see Giles play in a competitive game before risking a top-five pick on him.
"He almost needs to play," one NBA scout said. "Think about Kyrie [Irving]. He hurt his foot, played through it, still the No. 1 pick. You look at this class right now -- there's not a lot of guys more talented than [Giles]. You will never know the truth. I don't know if it will affect him. It's the hype, it's the wait-and-see."
"You worry about taking a guy like him, like there's something out there you don't know," another scout said. "You wonder how that's going to play a part in a draft decision. I can't think it's a lock with these injuries."
Future star when healthy
The best-case scenario is that Giles returns to his pre-injury form and goes on to play a long and successful career in the NBA. Given the early performances of Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid this season, it's not unprecedented for a player to miss an extended period of time and still make an impact.
"[Giles is] 6-foot-10, blessed with outstanding athleticism," one coach said. "He really runs the floor, great hands. He became a guy that stretched his game all the way to the perimeter, became comfortable to the 3-point line. He worked hard to improve his offensive game, his overall skill set. I remember watching him play a handful of games, and it wasn't uncommon to see him go 14-for-17, 14-for-18. He converts at an incredibly high rate from the field. As a college player, very few players can match his size, athleticism and skill. There's the comparison to Chris Webber, and he might be an inch or so taller. But that's very, very apt."
As a rising senior, Giles averaged 18 points and 11.4 rebounds on the Nike EYBL circuit, and put up 14 points and 10.5 rebounds on the USA Basketball U19 national team in the summer of 2015. When healthy, he was as dominant and talented a high school player as anyone we've seen the last few years.
"When he was healthy, I would have said my expectation is that he would be a first-team All-American as a freshman," one college coach said.
The big question remains: Will we see that Giles again?