Scottie Scheffler, unsurprisingly, heads into another major as the betting favorite, but bettors are largely supporting European players ahead of the action teeing off from Northern Ireland at the Open Championship and sportsbooks are handicapping accordingly.
Scheffler tops the odds board at +550, followed by Rory McIlroy (+750) and Jon Rahm (+1200), according to ESPN BET lines. Bryson DeChambeau (+1800) represents the only other American in the top eight shortest odds, with European golfers occupying the next four spots.
Bookmakers look at Royal Portrush as a traditional European-style course that many players from the continent made their bones on early in their careers, potentially giving them an advantage over the Americans or other international players.
"I really like courses like this. Oceanside links course, always have to take wind into consideration," Caesars Sportsbook lead golf trader Anthony Salleroli told ESPN. "Definitely favors the European players that are used to playing out there ... you always have to give them a little bit of nudge."
One player seemingly getting preferential treatment for this reason is Tommy Fleetwood, who has notably never won a major and narrowly missed out on his first PGA Tour win at the Travelers Championship in June. The English golfer was runner-up the last time The Open was staged at this course in 2019 and is a seven-time winner on the European Tour.
"Tommy Fleetwood is not a winner in golf," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "I mean, he's been close in a lot of tournaments, but he just doesn't win a lot. And he's 28-to-1, when in another major he would be minimum 60."
Avello also mentions Tyrrell Hatton (+2500), Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000) and Robert MacIntyre (+4000) as mid-board players getting boosts from the venue.
Bettors seem to believe this could be Fleetwood's week, as they've been backing him despite the checkered history: ESPN BET reports 5.6% of the handle on the 34-year-old, the fourth most of any golfer in the field and trailing only the three odds leaders. Simply, as Salleroli puts it, "the public love to back him."
Salleroli says another player getting "big buzz" this week is Rahm, who has the second-most money backing him (9.7%) at ESPN BET. Meanwhile, DeChambeau, who had been a popular option among the sportsbooks and public bettors in the first three majors, has drifted down the odds board and had just 3.3% of the handle at ESPN BET, though he did attract a $5,000 wager at +2200 odds to win $110,000 at BetMGM.
In terms of course fit and mentality, a lot of bettors are eyeing up McIlroy, who is playing the tournament in his home country and is in better form since his slump following his historic Masters win. BetMGM notes him as its largest liability, but bookmakers are even more wary about him in the live markets.
"If Rory is a contender in this, we won't be in great shape because we take a lot of money on the in-play," said Avello. "So, if Rory's going to be in the mix early, and it might only be a couple holes in, I could see bettors jumping."
Salleroli concurs and also posits that Shane Lowry (+3000), who won the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush, could be another popular live play if he's on the chase.