Betting on golf is a beautiful, maddening, exhilarating puzzle -- kind of like standing over a 3-footer to save par with your buddies watching. There are tons of ways to bet on a tournament, but if you're randomly firing outright winners and hoping for the best, you're likely going to find yourself in a financial bunker.
Instead, here's a step-by-step guide on how to structure your betting card like a pro, balancing risk and reward to make sure you're in the hunt come Sunday.
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form and course history.
Course fit is all about how a golfer's skill set aligns with the layout -- whether it's a bomber's paradise, a precision-heavy track or a putting contest.
Current form looks at recent results, momentum and confidence -- because a player striping it tee-to-green last week is more appealing than one searching for his swing.
Course history is the comfort factor -- some players see certain courses better, whether it's the type of grass or memories of past success. The sweet spot is when all three align. But in betting, you're looking for the best value, and sometimes weighing one over the others is where you find the edge.
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Bets to make on The Open Championship
Understand your betting options
Golf betting is more than just picking a winner. There are plenty of ways to get action -- some safer than others -- and if you structure your bets correctly, you can still cash even if your outright pick implodes. Here's a quick rundown of the most popular wagers:
Outright winner
This is the classic "Who's holding the trophy on Sunday?" bet. Because golf fields are massive, outright odds are juicy -- but that also means they're tough to hit. A 30-1 ticket is fun, but only if you're betting outright winners. You'll have a lot of weekends when your wallet looks like the rough at a U.S. Open.
Top-5, top-10 and top-20 finishes
Think of these as more conservative wagers, with top-20 bets being the higher probability plays. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just have to finish inside a certain range. A top-20 bet at +120 might not sound thrilling, but cashing these consistently will keep your bankroll alive while you're sprinkling on outright tickets.
A golfer at 30-1 to win the tournament has a 3.2% implied probability of winning. Compare that to a top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability) -- huge difference, right? That's why I bet less on longer odds and more on higher-probability plays.
First-round leader
This is where things get fun. Instead of sweating a full four-day tournament, you just need your golfer to lead after 18 holes. Because first-round odds are often 20-1 or longer, I bet these in fractions of a unit (more on that later). Morning tee times, calm conditions and aggressive scorers are key factors in first-round leader betting. If you like a player to potentially win a tournament, then you certainly want to risk something on him to come out strong in the opening round. If it hits, you're potentially freerolling the rest of your card.
Head-to-head matchups
If betting outright winners is like aiming for the pin, matchup bets are like a layup to the middle of the green. You're just picking one golfer to beat another, either for a single round or the full tournament. It's a much more controlled way to bet. I prefer betting a full tournament, as it offers the bigger-picture outcome over the course of four days as opposed to higher volatility with just a single round. There are also three-ball matchups. Think head-to-head but with three players. It's longer odds, but adding a third brings more risk.
Props and majors-only markets
Majors unlock a buffet of fun bets. Some you see on a weekly basis, while others you see only for the biggest tournaments of the year:
Top American, top European, etc.: Picking the best finisher from a specific region.
Will there be a hole-in-one?: Self-explanatory. Always fun, always tempting.
Lowest round, highest round: Will someone go full Cam Smith at St. Andrews (-8)? Or will someone post an 82 in windy conditions?
Make the cut parlays: A combination of players to make the cut line.
Structuring your betting card and managing your bet size
Throwing darts at the board and hoping for a bull's-eye isn't a strategy -- it's a good way to run out of funds before the weekend. And if you're putting the same amount on everything, stop right now -- that's the equivalent of using a putter from the fairway.
Instead, I like to build my card around two or three players and mix in different bet types to balance risk and reward. Because golf odds vary wildly, bet sizing needs to be proportional to the risk.
This works because top-20s provide consistency, cashing more often and keeping your bankroll steady. Top-10 and top-5 wagers could be 0.5 units, while outright winners could range from 0.2 to 0.25, because they are harder to hit. First-round leaders are even higher risk but high reward, giving you a shot not only at a big win but also at lower bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets keeps you in play all tournament. Even if your outright pick stumbles, your top-20 bet could still cash. The longer the odds, the smaller your bet size, because it is a much lower implied probability to hit. Betting too large on long shots can wipe you out quickly if you go on a losing streak.
If you're betting multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total stake needs to be balanced so you don't go all-in on a single golfer. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust individual bet sizes to keep total exposure in check.
PGA Tour's biggest tournaments: The four majors and golf's 'fifth major'
Like anything else, betting on golf is about staying disciplined and using wagering as a way to enhance your viewing experience. Golf betting can be a grind. If you're expecting to hit an outright winner every week, you're in for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risk and spreading exposure across different markets, you can stay profitable and keep the sweat alive all weekend.
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
U.S. Open: J.J. Spaun (-1)
PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)
With one of the strongest fields, a massive purse and TPC Sawgrass setting the stage, it's as close to a major as it gets. It might not have the official label, but the drama, history and that island green at 17 make it one of the best tournaments of the year.
Bets to make on the 2025 Open Championship
Odds are accurate as of publication. For latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The PGA's final major is this week in Northern Ireland. The Open, set at Royal Portrush, isn't a bomb-and-gouge setup but instead is a strategist's course. It rewards precision off the tee, controlled ball flights and creativity around the greens. Players need to shape shots in the wind, handle awkward lies and stay composed when scoring gets tough.
The winning score in 2019 was minus-15, but that came from Shane Lowry having the week of his life with an unreal performance over the first three rounds. By Sunday, the weather turned brutal and par was a great score. So yes, a low score is possible but it's not a birdie fest. It's a course where the wind can flip everything in a day, and the ability to stay steady when conditions change becomes the separator.
The metrics that matter most are strokes gained from tee to green, scrambling and performance in wind-affected conditions. It's less about length and more about discipline and links experience. Here are the four players I like to contend this week.
My favorite bets
Rory McIlroy Top 10 (-105)
If local ties matter, create a small bonus bucket for players with Irish/Northern Irish or Scottish roots like McIlroy. Though, it's not just a local narrative but backed by data. His game is perfectly calibrated for Royal Portrush, ranked fifth on tour for strokes gained from tee-to-green, gaining eight-plus strokes in each of his last three starts, including gaining over 13 in the Scottish Open last week.
At Portrush, where raw power is not needed, that level of sustained ball-striking translates directly to scoring. If he keeps that up, he won't need to rely on a hot putter because he'll be living in birdie range and avoiding the trouble that buries others.
No one in the field combines recent form, course familiarity and links pedigree quite like him. Top five is tempting at +170, but you're adding only 75 cents of value for much more risk. Take the steadier edge and keep your ROI clean.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (+130)
In 2019, Portrush rewarded control, patience and imagination. That's Fleetwood's entire toolkit. He's 8th in approach, 11th around the green and 3rd in scrambling -- exactly what you need to survive a links test.
He finished runner-up here in 2019 and has racked up nine top-20 finishes in 15 starts this season. He doesn't rely on streaky putting or power because he has a complete game; he puts the ball in the right spots and scrambles when he has to.
It's not flashy, but it's very effective having a steady profile built for windy chaos. He's still chasing that first win on U.S. soil or in a major ... but this could be the week.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+210)
This is a timing play. A heat check on a player peaking at the right moment. Fitzpatrick is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes, including a T4 at the Scottish Open where he gained 10-plus tee to green and nearly seven strokes putting. That's the combo. And that course? A wind-exposed, firm layout, not unlike what he'll face at Portrush.
I don't want guys trying to muscle this place. I want guys who think their way around it. Fitzpatrick doesn't overpower courses, he dissects them. Links roots, elite touch and trending ballstriking? Sign me up.
Jon Rahm Top 20 (+130)
If it's not McIlroy, it could very well be Rahm. He finished T11 here in 2019 and has three top-10 finishes in The Open since. His 2025 major résumé tells you he's trending toward something big, and Royal Portrush could be the payoff. He's finished T14, T8 and T7 in the three majors this year, gaining over 11 strokes tee to green at the U.S. Open and nearly 10 total at the PGA.
His iron play has come alive. And even when the putter's cold, he still climbs. That's the formula for The Open: elite ballstriking, control in tough conditions, mental stamina. If the putter shows up even slightly, Rahm is right there.