Thirteen teams, 162 games, 465 goals and 210 days later, the 2024-25 season of the Indian Super League comes down to two teams -- Mohun Bagan Super Giant and Bengaluru FC. Come April 12th, the Salt Lake stadium will be witness to two rivals that have always played hard-fought encounters for the ultimate prize.
For Bagan, this is the opportunity to do something they've never done -- win the ISL League Shield and Cup double, having been denied by Mumbai City last year. For BFC, this is their shot at winning only their second-ever ISL Cup, having last done so in 2018-19 under Carles Cuadrat.
It's all set to be a tactical battle between Jose Molina and Gerard Zaragoza, and here's how that could play out:
Attack vs. Defence?
Mohun Bagan have averaged close to two goals per game this season, with 50 from 26 games, with Bengaluru FC not far behind on 48 goals from 27 games this season. The real difference between the two teams however, is that Bagan have only conceded 18 goals this season, while BFC have let in 33. It stands to reason then, that Bagan will sit back and keep things compact - after all their gung-ho nature saw them lose the final last year after going a goal ahead.
The clue to how this game might progress also lies in the previous game between the two teams at the Salt Lake in late January this year. Bagan had 36% of the ball, managed 0.51xg over 90 minutes (BFC had 1.05xG), had half as many accurate passes (220 vs 453), with Subhashish Bose their top-most passer into the final third... and walked away with a 1-0 win thanks to a Liston Colaco screamer from outside the box.
Incidentally, that Colaco goal had an xG of 0.06. The goal that put Bagan in this final, a very unexpected belter from Apuia, had an xG of 0.03. Dimi Petratos' goal against Odisha, that won Bagan the League Shield had an xG of 0.06. Jamie MacLaren's goal that won the most recent Kolkata derby against East Bengal had a 0.18xG. With numbers like this, it's no wonder that Molina likes to keep things compact and simple at the back and let his mavericks going forward do what they do best - score one-in-a-million goals.
How will the teams setup?
The defensive lines are fairly obvious for both teams -- Vishal Kaith and Gurpreet Singh Sandhu in goal are certainties (and if it comes down to penalties, as it did in 2022/23, it's advantage Bagan). Molina will line up with Asish Rai at right-back, Tom Aldred and Alberto Rodriguez at centre-back, and Subhasish Bose at left-back. Dippendu Biswas or ever Ashique Kuruniyan could make surprise appearances in the full-back roles, but Molina is hardly likely to change a winning combination. As for BFC, Zaragoza is almost certain to field the first-ever all-Indian backline in an ISL final, with Namgyal Bhutia at right-back, Chinglensana Singh and Rahul Bheke at centre-back and Naorem Roshan Singh at left-back.
It's the midfield and attack where the X-factor for this final may lie. For BFC, their all-Indian backline has allowed Zaragoza to introduce an intriguing twist in midfield for the last few games -- a midfield diamond. The roles of Pedro Capo at the base, and Suresh Singh and Alberto Noguera flanking him in the diamond seem simple enough, but it's the -fact that one of their forwards can rotate into that diamond - in and out - that introduces an element of chaos to BFC's structure going forward. It drags opposition centre-backs and defensive midfielders out of position, allowing BFC to exploit those gaps (with through balls from Noguera or yes, even Suresh) and thus also ensure Edgar Mendez is in a 1v1 duel, which he usually wins.
To counter this, we could see Molina opt for a midfield pivot of Deepak Tangri and Apuia, with Anirudh Thapa making way, since they are far likelier to hold shape than Thapa, who has may be more inclined to chase the man or ball. This is how Bagan could start the final anyway, since Molina is more inclined to take risks in the final quarter of the game with his attacking substitutions.
Going forward, it's simple for Bagan, who don't really have a set pattern of play. Jamie MacLaren and Jason Cummings may both start, which would necessitate Indian wingers. Ashique Kuruniyan introduces plenty of jeopardy with his direct running, but given this is a final, Molina might opt for a more tested combination in Colaco and Manvir Singh. The pair have the crossing nous to get the best of both MacLaren and Cummings. In contrast to Bagan's maverick nature, BFC have forwards operating within a system, with Jorge Pereyra Diaz and Mendez a plug-and-play option in both the centre-forward role, or even drifting wide. Their rotations cause plenty of problems, but it's the other Indian forward that's been a problem position for Zaragoza, with both Vinith Venkatesh and Sivasakthi Narayanan appearing as placeholders.
Who will be the difference makers?
That Vinith and Sivasakthi are placeholders is simply because Zaragoza wants to keep his powder dry. The 1-2 punch of Sunil Chhetri and Ryan Williams introduced as late substitutes is simply beautiful, because the pair complement each other wonderfully, and are primed to take on a Bagan defence wilting in the suffocating Kolkata heat. Williams has the beating of any ISL defender on pace, and his accuracy with crosses to the far post are tailormade for 14-goal Chhetri, who can comfortably beat any of Rai or Biswas in the air. In the transition, Chhetri's ability to pick a ball out also means he can turn supplier for Williams, who can ghost behind defences and finish with aplomb as well.
Another difference-maker for BFC could also be Suresh Singh, in that his absence deeply unbalances the side, as was witnessed in the second semifinal against Goa, when BFC had no midfield control at all and conceded shot after shot. An injury doubt before the final, Suresh may perhaps be risked against Bagan, but if he's not at 100% - this could prove to be an area of dominance for Bagan.
Zaragoza will not be the only manager with plenty left in reserve, Molina has the likes of Dimi Petratos and Greg Stewart to call upon from the bench. Petratos is clutch personified, having won trophies for Bagan with his late goals multiple times -- and one wouldn't put it past him to repeat his heroics. Curiously, this final could simply come down to that -- an attritional game decided by which one of Petratos or Chhetri finds their clutch gene on the night. In that vein, the Indian has nine ISL goals scored in injury time to Petratos' four, but the footballing gods may cast their favour on any one of the 22 on the pitch.
And that's perhaps why, after all the chaos, after all the drama, after 90 sweltering minutes on the Kolkata pitch, this ISL Final may just be worth the wait.