The shield has been retained, as was destined right from the start -- no one came close to Mohun Bagan. These are heady days for one section of Kolkata football fans. All of them always demand excellence, only one club has consistently delivered it in the last few seasons, and that has been Bagan.
Since moving to the Indian Super League (ISL) in 2020, Bagan (with or without ATK) have now made the final of the competition four times, in addition to winning the shield twice.
They have also made two Durand Cup finals in that time. Of those five finals since 2020, though, they've only won one in regulation time (2023 Durand Cup against East Bengal), and one more on penalties (2023 ISL final against Bengaluru FC). And therein lies a problem.
Bagan's unhappy memories from recent finals
Against Bengaluru FC this Saturday, they will have a chance to correct this record in the 2024-25 ISL final. It'll be important for them because, especially in the last couple of years it has been rare to see Bagan lose a game of football, and rarer still to see them lose at the Salt Lake Stadium. And yet somehow, they've lost the last two finals they've played in front of their fans at India's grandest footballing venue.
In last year's ISL final, they even took the lead, but a second half collapse handed the cup to Mumbai City FC. In the Durand Cup in August, they went one step further, taking a 2-0 lead, and then inexplicably collapsed again, allowing NorthEast United to equalize and then losing on penalties.
So, when Jose Molina's all-conquering ISL side takes the field for the final, they will have these sour memories in the back of their minds. Of course, they will also have in their mind that they have been the best team in the country by a large margin.
That's the conundrum they need to tackle -- what wins you leagues don't always translate to what wins you cup finals. There is perhaps a bit of a hole in this Bagan side in that respect, but no team is more capable of plugging such a hole than them.
Does Bagan's quest for volume go against them in finals?
Be it under Juan Ferrando, Antonio Lopez or Molina, Bagan have never been a gung-ho team playing attractive, attacking football. They have never had to be, because very rarely do they lose control of games. This season, they've taken that to another level. Alberto Rodriguez and Tom Aldred have formed a superb partnership at the heart of their defence, and Apuia in front of them has grown into his Bagan shirt superbly. They conceded seven goals in their first three ISL games this season. Since then, they've conceded 10 in 23 games. They are also, though, with 50 goals in 26 games.
Despite that goal tally, Bagan aren't the best creators of clear-cut chances. They've taken 309 shots in their 26 games so far, for 35.5 expected goals (xG) in total. That is an average of 0.1 xG per shot. Bengaluru on the other hand have taken only 241 shots in their 27 games, but their average xG per shot is 0.13, for a total 30.5. On average, Bengaluru's chance creation is 2% better than Bagan's over the course of the season.
In the league, this translates well because their volume of shots ends up translating sooner rather than later but knockout games, especially finals, are cagey affairs and tend to be decided in favour of those who create the better quality of chances.
In the semifinal second leg against Jamshedpur, for instance, a tie which they were chasing for long periods of time, Bagan had 35 shots for 2.59 xG, less than their season average. Across the two legs, they had 49 shots for 3.35 xG. That is, on average, 0.07 xG per shot. If we remove Jason Cummings's penalty in the second leg, that's down to 48 shots for 2.60 xG, for 0.05 xG per shot.
And those are the margins that, in a final, could go against a team.
In last year's ISL final their goal came after Phurba Lachenpa spilled Dimi Petratos's long shot into the path of Cummings, Bagan created little else. Mumbai created almost double the xG that Bagan did.
In a squad brimming with attacking gamechangers, perhaps the issue is that too many of them are finishers, rather than creators. That is why, in this final, the likes of Greg Stewart and Sahal Abdul Samad might have a bigger role to play than they have all season.
Bagan's usual methods tend towards shots from range and crosses. The latter has already proved to not be effective against Rahul Bheke and Chinglensana Singh, who repelled almost every cross that came their way over two legs of their semifinal against FC Goa.
So, against a Bengaluru side that will perhaps miss Suresh Singh Wangjam in midfield, Bagan's best route could be through their creative midfield players keeping the ball on the floor, to allow the likes of Cummings and Jamie Maclaren to take better shots from inside the box.
If they can supplement their high volume chance creation with higher quality ones on Saturday, then this Bagan team might become as unstoppable as any team has ever been in Indian club football.