Fantasy football: The best picks for each draft slot in Rounds 1 and 2

Few things seem to cause us fantasy football managers more anxiety than worrying about our drafts. We want them to proceed perfectly and without any mistakes on our part. But perhaps one of the silliest things we often stress about is where we're assigned to pick. (This is especially true in two-quarterback and superflex leagues, if slotted late in the order after the top quarterbacks will surely be gone.)

I've got a one-word piece of advice for those whom this describes: Relax.

You've come to the right place for easing your stress and paving the smoothest path to the start of your draft. Here, each year, I design for you a handy roadmap to the first two rounds, identifying the logical options from each slot and the implications of the positional combinations chosen, and suggesting ideal selections for every pick. This simulates the experience of a 10- or 12-team standard PPR fantasy draft, improving your odds of making the best picks.

But first, I must unfortunately share with you a harsh reality for 2023: Draft boards, at least in the first two rounds, are more fluid than in any year of my writing this column that I can remember. That's not necessarily a bad thing, nor should it induce anxiety! One way to look at it is there are fewer "wrong answer" picks in most spots this season, and that's another path to a Zen-like mindset on draft day.

Because of this I have adjusted this year's column accordingly. For each draft slot, beyond talking you through things, I've also provided "players unlocked," which means the slot at which you should most logically begin thinking about drafting those mentioned. If your gut instinct is to take the player who neither tops the current draft board nor is the top remaining name in terms of average draft position (ADP), by all means do! It's your team and, again, there's more fluidity in the opening rounds, affording you more creativity with your team building.

All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Draft Slot 1

Round 1 (Pick 1 overall): It's Justin Jefferson for me, period. He was the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy points last season and is sixth in scoring among all players covering his three-year span in the league thus far. While we could expand this discussion to include Ja'Marr Chase or either of the top two running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler), this is an important spot from which to discuss the philosophy of how you should begin building your team.

This season, the top running backs are generally an older bunch than in years past and they were less productive on a per-game basis than their predecessors.

Averages of top five RBs in terms of ADP:
2023: 26.7 years old, 19.9 fantasy PPG previous year
2022: 26.1 years, 20.6 PPG
2021: 26.1 years, 23.1 PPG
2020: 24.6 years, 21.5 PPG
2019: 25.2 years, 21.8 PPG

Averages of top five WRs in terms of ADP:
2023: 27.5 years, 20.8 PPG previous year
2022: 26.7 years, 20.3 PPG
2021: 27.8 years, 20.5 PPG
2020: 28.3 years, 18.8 PPG
2019: 28.3 years, 20.7 PPG

This year's top five running backs are the oldest, on average, in any year since 2015, a season in which those five missed a combined 31 games and averaged 102.2 fewer fantasy points apiece than in the season before it. (That's the average including the fact that No. 1 overall pick Adrian Peterson went from playing one game in 2014 to scoring the second-most PPR fantasy points at the position in 2015.)

By comparison, this year's top five wide receivers averaged the second-most PPG in the preceding season, behind only 2015's prime-age group of Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones. Three members of that group (Brown, Beckham and Jones) exceeded 300 points, and the quintet averaged 20 points per game, reflecting the fact that wide receivers should have been the focal point in that year's draft instead.

Let's not make the same mistake this year.

Players unlocked: Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, Ekeler

Round 2 (Pick 20 in 10-team, Pick 24 in 12-team): A fantasy team can land a dream WR/WR pairing with the No. 1 slot this year, with Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins and DeVonta Smith all generally going in this range in 10-team leagues, and Higgins, Smith, DK Metcalf and Chris Olave in 12-teamers. A fantasy manager drafting from the top slot merely needs to decide whether a zero-RB strategy suits them, or if a running back either in this pick or the next -- No. 21 in a 10-teamer, 25th in a 12-teamer -- addresses your RB1 spot. Otherwise, you're waiting until picks 40 and 48, respectively, to get your top running back, at which point we're probably talking about a Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce or Miles Sanders type.

Players unlocked: Aaron Jones, Calvin Ridley (10-team); Jahmyr Gibbs (12-team)

Tristan's picks: Justin Jefferson and Jaylen Waddle (10-team) or Chris Olave (12-team)

Draft Slot 2

Round 1 (Pick 2): Here's the spot at which the RB-versus-WR debate begins to get more logical. Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler have a handy, PPR-driven advantage over the rest of the position, though both come with those advancing ages and wear-and-tear questions (the latter especially for McCaffrey). You can go running back here, but I'm still not.

Players unlocked: None

Round 2 (Pick 19 in 10-team, Pick 23 in 12-team): Le'Veon Bell's holdout-turned-sit-out in 2018 remains somewhat fresh in many of our minds, and with the news that Jonathan Taylorwill miss at least the season's first four weeks while on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list, those fears have been legitimized. Once a strong candidate for this draft slot, even in a 10-team league, he's no longer even a consideration for me before Round 4.

Fortunately, we've also received recent good news on Josh Jacobs' status, as he agreed to one-year contract terms with the Las Vegas Raiders on Aug. 26, alleviating such fears with him. The ever-so-slight worries about conditioning and resulting sluggish Septembers have me hedging by a positional spot or two in my rankings, but this feels like the sweet spot for drafting him in a 10-team league.

Players unlocked: Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel (10-team); Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson (12-team)

Tristan's picks: Ja'Marr Chase and Josh Jacobs (10-team) or DeVonta Smith (12-team)

Draft Slot 3

Round 1 (Pick 3): Assuming your league followed suit with Jefferson-Chase opening selections, this pick unlocks another pair of wide receivers as well as by far the top tight end. That considered, it's probably wisest to break the seal on running backs, being that the wide receiver position is rich enough in talent that there should still be a good one awaiting you in Round 2.

Players unlocked: Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce

Round 2 (Pick 18 in 10-team, Pick 22 in 12-team): Top-tier quarterbacks are generally scoring at a greater rate relative to replacement these days. Last season, three QBs had fantasy point totals in excess of 90 more than the position's No. 11 scorer for the first time in 11 years. This is the VBD (value based drafting) concept, which measures the player's impact relative to fantasy "replacement level," or the first player outside a starting lineup.

In a 10-team league, this is the absolutely earliest you should be even thinking QB. But in 12-team leagues, this is the point at which taking one of the elite three of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts makes sense. For the record, I would pair a second-round quarterback only with a first-round Jefferson, Chase or Hill, and not the running backs.

Players unlocked: Mahomes, Josh Allen, Hurts (10-team); Mark Andrews (12-team)

Tristan's picks: Christian McCaffrey and Garrett Wilson (10-team) or Tee Higgins (12-team)

Draft Slot 4

Round 1 (Pick 4): The case for Kelce rings louder as each pick passes, but this is the spot at which the second tier of running backs (Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson) needs to enter the discussion. Despite the absurdity that was Robinson's RB3 listing on the Falcons' depth chart for the preseason finale, the rookie is absolutely worthy of a first-round selection, and he's absolutely going to start for them and absorb a reasonably hefty workload.

As I wrote in the spring, seven running backs in the past 10 seasons were first-round NFL draft selections and taken in the top 35 of fantasy drafts (in terms of ADP). Five of those seven outperformed their ADP, and they averaged nearly as good a positional finish (9.7) as their positional ADP (9.4). Barkley, perhaps the best recent statistical/skills comparison for Robinson, was the No. 5 running back selected in 2018, ultimately topping all RBs in fantasy points. Both are high-ceiling, hefty-usage backs who warrant fantasy-building-block consideration.

Therefore, you shouldn't fear selecting Robinson -- or the more proven Barkley -- in the first round, even this soon, if you're firm on building around a running back. I'm not in that camp, though, not while some of the names mentioned earlier remain on the board.

Players unlocked: Barkley, Robinson

Round 2 (Pick 17 in 10-team, Pick 21 in 12-team): The 3-4-5 slots seem like "best available" scenarios for both rounds this season.

Players unlocked: Chris Olave (10-team); none (12-team)

Tristan's picks: Tyreek Hill and Nick Chubb (10-team) or Travis Etienne Jr. (12-team)