The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown reviews why many of the Rams and Eagles players still have fantasy upside value even after yesterday's impressive performances, if Kareem Hunt will return to his early season elite form and how the Broncos' abysmal blocking is hindering the fantasy value of nearly every Denver player.
The Rams produced elite fantasy numbers despite facing frequent pass rush pressure
My Week 9 fantasy blocking preview article detailed how the Rams looked to have one of the best pass blocking mismatches of the week and why that made Jared Goff, Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods better plays than usual.
The Giants turned those metrics around to some extent by generating pass rush pressure on 44.4 percent of Goff's vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), a total that was tied for the highest in Week 9. The bad news for New York is that pressure had almost zero impact on Goff, as his 18.3 vertical yards per attempt average was a league-best in Week 9.
This indicates Goff has the ability to produce big numbers on downfield throws even when he is under pressure, a skill that led to Goff scoring 28.4 fantasy points, Woods racking up 23 points and Watkins returning to double-digit scoring territory for the first time since Week 3.
That talent also suggests that fantasy managers should not consider trading any of these players unless the trade offer is at peak value, as this trio is apt to continue posting superb fantasy numbers.
The Eagles actually have fantasy upside if their blocking improves
The Philadelphia Eagles looked to have some risky fantasy prospects in Week 9 because they came into the matchup against the Denver Broncos with an inconsistent set of blocking metrics. The Eagles ranked 24th in ESPN Stats & Information's pass pressure rate (PPR) metric in Weeks 4-8 (31.0 percent) and placed 29th in quarterback contact (QC) rate (18.5 percent).
Philadelphia ended up winning the pass blocking battle in this contest by a significant margin, as their 19.4 percent PPR allowed ranked fifth best in Week 9 and their 10.8 percent QC ranked tied for 11th. To be fair, Denver's defense hasn't been getting after the quarterback quite as well of late, as their 26.6 percent PPR in Weeks 4-8 ranked 18th, but it's still quite an achievement for the Eagles blockers to step up to this level.
This also applied to the running game, as Philadelphia's offense racked up a 51.4 percent mark against Denver in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. That is by the far the highest GBR posted by any team against the Broncos, as Denver came into this contest ranked second in GBR allowed this season (33.1 percent).
These hugely favorable blocking performances led the Eagles to have three players (Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery and Corey Clement) with 20 or more fantasy points in a single week for the first time this season, but if this blocking prowess continues it may not be the last time Philadelphia achieves this honor this season.
Will Kareem Hunt ever return to his early season form?
Kareem Hunt started the 2017 campaign on a tear, as his 32.3 fantasy points per game average in Weeks 1-3 led the league in that category. Hunt has been nowhere near as productive since then, as his 13.7 points per game average in Weeks 4-9 ranks 15th among running backs and represents a 57.6 percent fantasy scoring drop-off.
So what has caused this issue? It isn't the quality of the team's run blocking as a whole, as Kansas City has posted a GBR at or above the 41.1 percent leaguewide GBR average in seven of nine contests this season.
The problem for Hunt is that he has received a GBR at or above the leaguewide GBR average in only two games this year, both of which occurred in the aforementioned elite stretch in Weeks 1-3.
Hunt also hasn't been anywhere near as productive of late in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. He was above the elite double-digit GBYPA bar in each of the first three games of the season, but since then has posted a double-digit GBYPA only once and has posted a GBYPA of lower than the 8.7 leaguewide average in that category in four of six games.
It may surprise you to learn that Hunt's regression in GBR and GBYPA isn't a result of increased defensive presence in the tackle box. Hunt faced an extra defender in the box on 12.7 snaps per game during Weeks 1-3, a total that ranked seventh highest among running backs. Since then, Hunt has seen an extra tackle box defender on an average of 8.3 snaps per game, which ranks 18th among running backs in that time frame.
What this indicates is that defenses are finding effective ways to attack the Chiefs blocking when Hunt is in the lineup without using a safety in the box to do it. Dropping the safety back downfield has also limited the upside of Hunt's breakaway rushes.
The fantasy takeaway here is that there are too many negatives working against Hunt to expect a return to his early season form, so fantasy managers should accept that he is apt to be an RB2 for the rest of the season.
Poor blocking is crushing the fantasy value of nearly every Denver player
The Broncos' offense has struggled so badly that the team's brain trust is now reportedly considering making another quarterback change only one week after benching Trevor Siemian for Brock Osweiler.
Fantasy managers are just as disappointed in the Broncos. C.J. Anderson has now posted four straight games with a single-digit point total. Emmanuel Sanders has tallied three games with a single-digit point total to go along with two goose eggs due to injury. Demaryius Thomas is the most consistent Denver player and yet even he has posted fewer than three points in two of his last five games.
As tempting as it may be to blame these issues on subpar quarterback play, the reality is the Broncos' offense has posted some of the worst blocking metrics in the league this season.
From Weeks 4-8, Denver allowed a 36.6 percent PPR on vertical passes (ranked 29th) and a 9.3 percent sack rate (ranked 29th). The PPR allowed was even worse against a powerful Eagles pass rush, as Philadelphia got pass rush pressure on 48.8 percent of dropbacks, the highest mark in that category in Week 9.
The Broncos' run blocking has been equally dismal, as Denver came into Week 9 ranked 27th in GBR for the season (37.1) and ranked 31st in GBR from Weeks 4-8 (29.0). They may end up contending for last place in GBR following their abysmal performance against Philadelphia, as the Broncos posted a 10.0 percent GBR in that contest that was by far the lowest GBR Denver has racked up all season.
That performance wasn't entirely surprising given that Philadelphia came into that game ranked tied for third in GBR allowed, but it's still a terrible showing that indicates the Broncos cannot get anything done against a powerful front seven.
Things could improve in favorable front seven matchups against New England, Oakland and Miami over the next month, but given how badly the Broncos' blockers have played this season, it would be wise to temper any upside expectations in those matchups.