Blocking has an enormous impact on fantasy player value. According to many years of my research, running backs score four to five times as many fantasy points on plays with good run blocking (generally defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt) as they do on plays with bad run blocking.
It also has a significant impact on fantasy scoring in the passing game, as quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends post roughly 60 percent more points per play on dropbacks when the quarterback has a clean passing pocket versus plays when the quarterback is under pass rush pressure.
The fantasy football world has lagged behind when it comes to effectively measuring the impact blocking has on fantasy production, so I devised a new blocking grading system that uses multiple advanced metrics to project the 2017 season-long offensive line performance for all 32 teams and noted how those grades could affect the fantasy value of players on those clubs.
That type of information was very useful during the draft, but how can fantasy owners use it to help determine which players they should start or sit on a weekly basis?
To assist in this effort, I applied a similar methodology to measure the strength of the defensive front sevens of every team and gave each defense an A to F grade in pass rushing, rush defense and consistency/stability, all of which resulted in an overall front seven grade.
I then took those grades and compared them to the offensive line grades to find out the relative blocking strength of every matchup of Week 1.
The relative portion of this system is the main factor here, as it is designed to ignore the overall strength of an offense and instead give higher grades to teams with better matchups. For example, a team with an A overall blocking grade facing an A front seven will rate lower on the scale than a B blocking club facing a C defensive front seven.
The entire chart of relative blocking favorability grades is posted at the bottom of the column, so let's now take a closer look at the teams that have the most and least favorable blocking matchups in Week 1.
Most favorable Week 1 blocking matchups
Tennessee Titans (vs. Oakland)
The Raiders have a great pass rusher in Khalil Mack, yet his skills weren't enough to keep the Silver and Black from ranking tied for last in sack rate and 28th in quarterback contact percentage last season. The Raiders' defense also ranked last in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric, as they gave up good run blocking on 43.4 percent of their opponents' carries. The Titans return five starters from an offensive line that placed second in GBR and fifth in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric (PPM). Marcus Mariota was on the borderline of QB1 status in most draft rooms, but this is a matchup that opens the door to QB1 status for him in Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland)
The Steelers bring back five offensive line starters from a group that was the only offensive blocking wall to receive an "A" grade in all three major categories. The addition of Myles Garrett will help upgrade Cleveland's defense, but it won't be enough to help the Browns overcome ranking tied for 27th in GBR allowed and 29th in pass pressure rate (PPR) last season. Fantasy owners often find it difficult to trust any Steelers player outside of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, yet this is a week when Ben Roethlisberger and Martavis Bryant can both be considered quality start prospects.
Chicago Bears (vs. Atlanta)
Chicago has one of the best offensive lines in the league, with four returning starters from an offensive line that helped the Bears rank seventh in PPM, eighth in sack rate allowed and tied for fourth in good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) last season. Takk McKinley will help Atlanta's pass rush, but not enough to offset the Falcons finishing tied for 26th in sack rate and 27th in PPR last season. Jordan Howard is always a must-start, but if the pass blocking holds up as well as the grades suggest, this matchup could make Zach Miller, Kevin White or Kendall Wright viable start options in deeper leagues.
Carolina Panthers (at San Francisco)
This is one of those contests where the relative strength of the blocking matchup really comes into play. Carolina ranked 20th in my preseason offensive line rankings, but the 49ers placed 30th in both GBR and GBYPA allowed last season, 28th in PPR and 29th in time allowed per vertical pass attempt (3.0 seconds on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). The favorability of this matchup should give Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart plenty of workload to split, as well as allowing Cam Newton to try his share of downfield throws to Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess.
New England Patriots (vs. Kansas City)
The Patriots bring back all five offensive line starters from a blocking wall that ranked 10th in my preseason rankings. They face a Chiefs front seven that struggled last season, as Kansas City tied for last in sack rate and tied for 27th in GBR allowed. The elite New England players are always must-start picks, but this could be a game where James White, Mike Gillislee and Chris Hogan are justifiable start candidates as well.
Least favorable Week 1 blocking matchups
Denver Broncos (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
The Broncos' F grade in run blocking last season led to wholesale changes to their blocking personnel and blocking system. These alterations may help down the road, but this week the Broncos face a Chargers squad that returns nine "front seven" players who tallied 250 or more snaps in 2016. That should allow the Los Angeles defense to replicate its No. 9 ranking in GBR allowed and No. 2 mark in PPR last season.
This means it might be a good week to consider alternative flex options to C.J. Anderson. It could also make the Chargers a good sleeper Week 1 D/ST pickup (if you are a streamer), as they are currently owned in only 14.9 percent of ESPN leagues.
Seattle Seahawks (at Green Bay)
Seattle arguably has the worst offensive line in the NFL, as the only team to land an F rating in pass blocking, due in part to finishing last in pass pressure rate and PPM. That does not bode well versus a Packers defense that placed seventh in sack rate, sixth in average time in pocket allowed on vertical passes and 11th in GBR. All of this indicates it may be prudent to downgrade the Seahawks' fantasy prospects, especially at running back given the crowded Seattle backfield.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Seattle)
The Packers went to a pass-heavy system last year because their run blocking was terrible (33.4 percent GBR, ranked 30th) and their pass blocking was superb (50.1 percent PPM, ranked eighth). Seattle returns six out of eight front seven defenders who played 450 or more snaps last season, so the Seahawks should be able to duplicate a No. 5 ranking in GBR allowed (34.5 percent) and No. 3 mark in GBYPA allowed.
The Packers could get better run blocking with the addition of Jahri Evans, but it's more likely they will continue to lean heavily on their aerial attack at the expense of rushing production. Ty Montgomery scored 43.9 percent of his fantasy points last year on rushing plays, so this potential blocking mismatch may cap his value to a point where he is on the borderline of flex or bench status.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Denver)
The Chargers ranked 26th in PPR allowed and PPM and last in GBR in 2016. These ratings caused them to replace three offensive line starters, so this new group also has the added challenge of getting in sync in a meaningful game for the first time in a tough road environment. Denver's defense doesn't allow long rushing gains (7.5 GBYPA, ranked fourth) and placed in the top three in pressure rate, quarterback contact rate and sack rate last season. The Broncos may lose some of their pass rushing edge now that Wade Phillips is the Rams defensive coordinator, but this personnel mismatch still adds risk factors to all of the Chargers' fantasy prospects.
Detroit Lions (vs. Arizona)
The Cardinals could be a defense to avoid all year long. Even with the loss of Calais Campbell, Arizona still has two of the top 12 defensive front seven players in ESPN Stats & Information's disrupted dropback percentage (Markus Golden and Chandler Jones), a metric that measures the per-snap frequency a player registers a sack, interception, batted pass or pass defensed. That duo is a big part of why Arizona rated first in quarterback contact percentage and sack rate and placed eighth in GBR. Most of the Lions players, outside of Golden Tate and possibly Matthew Stafford, are considered on the borderline of start or sit status in most weeks, and since Detroit's blocking wall ranked 22nd in my preseason ranking it looks like this is the type of matchup that pushes them toward the "sit" side of that ledger.
Key for the blocking chart below:
Off.: Offensive team
Blocking Grade: Measures offensive team's blocking wall (OL, RB, TE, WR)
Def.: Defensive team (aka the offensive team's opponent that week)
Front Seven Grade: Measures defensive team's pass rush, rush defense and consistency/stability
Diff. Grade: Relative blocking strength of offensive team in that week's matchup