A player's value in fantasy football can be difficult to project on any given week. However, over the course of the season, we work to develop a firm grip on how a player will perform on average. That value derives from a number of factors, including the scheme that said player plays within.
In fact, altering schemes can have a sizable impact on a player's value -- both positively and negatively. A year after leading the NFL rushing in Dallas in 2014, running back DeMarco Murray signed a free agent deal in Philadelphia and subsequently struggled last season. Not running behind the best offensive line in football impacted Murray, but so too did the system fit.
Below is a look at 10 players whose fantasy value took a turn this offseason based on a new scheme change (or coaching change) that he is playing in this year.
Five up
Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans: Miller finished as RB6 last season, but it's worth noting: 46.2 percent of his 173 total points came in just three games. He has just two games (out of 61 played) with at least 20 carries in the four pro seasons he has under his belt. In Houston, he figures to be the workhorse in an offense that leans on the run (the Texans attempted the fifth-most rushes last season). Moreover, Miller excels in the red zone. Since entering the league in 2012, no running back has averaged more yards per carry inside the opponent's 20 yard line, and no back has scored more touchdowns in the red zone than Miller. The Texans -- with a grab bag of running backs on the roster -- attempted the 16th most red zone rushing attempts last year; the Dolphins ranked 26th. Watch out for Miller.
Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints: If we've learned something over the past five seasons, it's that playing tight end in New Orleans carries significant fantasy value. During that stretch, Saints tight ends have collectively averaged 163.4 targets and 14.4 touchdowns per season. Yes, much of that can be traced to the unbelievable play of Jimmy Graham from 2011-2013, but Benjamin Watson had a breakout season of his own in 2015 after taking over as the starter. Despite just seven fantasy points in his first four games, Watson still finished at TE8 last season. He was valued on third down (22 receptions, six more than Rob Gronkowski), and in the red zone (10 receptions, one more than Gary Barnidge). Fleener is a plus athlete who is staring down a bucket of targets in is new home.
Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers: Candidly, I'm a bit hesitant to put too much stock in any 49er this year for fantasy purposes, but it can't get worse for Smith, the speedster who hauled in just 33 catches in 2015. And while volume was an issue for Smith last year, efficiency was not. Only Julio Jones, A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins averaged more fantasy points per reception on play action passes last season. Assuming a boost in overall performance of the running game (the Chip Kelly system and a healthy Carlos Hyde should help), the play action figures to follow suit and be better as well. Smith's quarterback play is a major question mark, but the first three years of Chip Kelly's NFL head coaching tenure didn't feature a host of terrific signal-callers either, yet WR1s under Kelly produced in a major way. DeSean Jackson (2013) and Jeremy Maclin (2014) posted career seasons under Kelly.
Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots: It's tough to say for sure where Hogan ranks among the Patriots' pass catchers, as the team has top talent at both receiver and tight end. It feels as though Hogan's ceiling could be as the No. 3 pass catcher (behind Gronk and Julian Edelman), which would have him in line for a career year. The Patriots threw the ball 39.3 times per game last season, over 10 more than the Bills' rate of 29.1. There are more opportunities for Hogan -- both in terms of overall volume and red zone looks -- plus superior quarterback play. Even if Tom Brady is limited to 12 games this season due to his currently reinstated suspension, Hogan still looks primed for a career season.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions: The outlook for Jones is better not just because of a new scheme, but also because of a new role. Let's start with the scheme. In the four years that Jones has been in the NFL, Cincinnati never finished higher than 12th in total passing attempts, including the past two years in which they were in the bottom eight. Contrast that with Detroit, which has finished -- on average -- just outside the top five in the NFL in passing attempts during that same span. Couple that with a new role -- Jones will be the Lions' top passing game target or the Robin to Golden Tate's Batman -- and the outlook is promising. Jones earned 103 targets last season in Cincy, but adding 20-30 more this year would be no shock. With Calvin Johnson now retired, the Lions have a lot of lost production to account for. Jones is a quality talent.
Five down
Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets: This has nothing to do with Forte's skill set as a player -- he has been one of the true standout players at the position since entering the league. It also is not a reflection of how I feel about the signing, as it was a smart move for the Jets. But after many years as the lead back in Chicago, Forte looks ready to have a more shared role in New York, as the team re-signed Bilal Powell and also added Khiry Robinson in free agency. As far as the schematic angle to this, it's worth noting that 100 percent of Forte's rushing touchdowns have come from within the red zone over the past two seasons (10 out of 10). The Jets were 22nd in number of rushing attempts in goal-to-go situations in 2015, while Chicago was sixth. Between competition for carries and a less run-heavy approach, Forte's value drops a bit entering this season.
Benjamin Watson, TE, Baltimore Ravens: Watson was mentioned earlier in regards to Coby Fleener, the man who will fill his role in New Orleans. Watson saw a heavy workload last year, churning out a career high in catches (74) and yards (825) on 109 targets (also a career high). In Baltimore, Watson is now competing for tight end looks with players such as Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams. This isn't to suggest that Watson can't or won't emerge as the starter, but assuming that he will see the same number of targets feels shortsighted. He's not a top-10 tight end for me entering the season after finishing as TE8 last season.
Rueben Randle, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Randle moved from New York to Philly this offseason, and while he hasn't always been the most consistent wideout, he finished the season on fire last year (double-digit fantasy points in each of his final four games) and is still just 25 years old. He has ability. Candidly, we still don't know exactly what the Philadelphia offense will look like, but the Giants' offense has emerged as one of the more fantasy friendly in the league. That's part of why many -- present writer included -- are excited about Sterling Shepard's value as the No. 2 receiver opposite of Odell Beckham Jr. Randle could challenge for the No. 2 job in Philadelphia, but if Nelson Agholor steps up after a disappointing rookie season, Randle will slide into a No. 3 role. He wasn't a player you were starting every week last season, but his value as a fill-in is no longer the same.
Chris Ivory, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Ivory's 2015 season was excellent on the whole, but his workload did decrease in the second half. He totaled just 109 carries over his final eight games compared to 138 in the first seven, and managed just one rushing touchdown in those same eight games (down from six in the first seven). I mention this because Ivory now looks likely to share a workload with T.J. Yeldon, akin to what he did with Bilal Powell as the 2015 season wore on (Powell emerged as a good player). Yeldon scored just two rushing touchdowns last year, as Jacksonville was at times curiously dependent upon Toby Gerhart in goal-line situations. Perhaps the team does look to lean on Ivory in those situations (he is a punishing back), but while 15 carries per game were easy to come by in many weeks last season, Ivory seems pegged for a workload closer to 10-12 this season, as Yeldon projects as the starter.
Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns: The veteran had a breakout campaign last season, posting more catches (79), yard (1,043) and touchdowns (nine) than he did in his first 92 career games. Placing him on this list is not to say I don't believe he can once again be a productive player, but repeating as a top three tight end will be tough. The Browns' offense will now run under Hue Jackson, a creative offensive mind that I believe will work hard to continue to involve running back Duke Johnson in the passing game (he had 61 catches last season). But this is about the infusion of receivers. The Browns drafted five -- yes, five -- wideouts this year, including top pick Corey Coleman. The 123 targets that Barndige got last year might not be as readily available this season. He's closer to a top-eight tight end than top three.