Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense. Don't be afraid. Take a deep breath. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party, and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You would not believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you are (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't make assumptions about the rookie QBs
Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels should finish with the most fantasy points among first-year quarterbacks and is an obvious play, even against the tough Eagles on Sunday, but he isn't alone among trustworthy choices. Three other rookie QBs are averaging at least 15 points per game, including the Broncos' Bo Nix, who faced the Chargers on Thursday night (and scored over 20 points). The other two are the Bears' Caleb Williams and the Patriots' Drake Maye, and their Week 16 matchups are better. Did you see that Bills-Lions game in Week 15? We saw 90 points scored! They attained more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage! Williams and Maye face those defenses.
OK, so Williams and Maye, the first and third picks in the 2024 NFL draft, aren't exactly Josh Allen and Jared Goff, but these are matchups to exploit in the fantasy playoffs, and it is OK to go with rookies, even in so-called must-win games. I went with Williams and Maye in the fantasy playoffs of an important league and ended up winning (though Jets WR Davante Adams clearly helped). Williams can be a bit painful to watch, as he overthrows one wide-open receiver after another, but only 13 QBs have more fantasy points this season.
Williams has topped 20 fantasy points three times, each in a home contest. This week, he is at home. We really shouldn't buy into home/road splits for football players, since most players tend to perform better at home anyway, but perhaps this rookie's comfort level is more extreme than others. He has averaged 17.1 fantasy points at home, 13.4 on the road. Schedule has much to do with this, too, but the Lions are so short-handed defensively, we must take this into consideration.
Maye continues to make strides throwing and providing value with his legs. His 5-yard touchdown run this past week came inside the final two minutes with the game's outcome already determined, but it still came. Maye also has at least one passing touchdown in six consecutive games and has completed 80% of his passes the past two games, and his running ability provides a strong fantasy floor. We know the Bills and Lions have injury issues on defense, but they also have dominant offenses, and we could see them rush to big leads in these games. Perhaps Williams and Maye will get their numbers that way, late in the game. Whatever the case, just get the numbers.
As for the most-discussed rookie this week, the one starting his first NFL game Sunday against the Giants, don't assume Michael Penix Jr. will struggle. Don't assume the Falcons will keep the offense so simple that it is all RB Bijan Robinson and myriad short, safer passes. Just, well, don't assume anything. Penix played a ton of college ball, has a strong arm that is accurate downfield and certainly has top options to target. He's also 24 years old, 18 months older than Caleb Williams. Yeah, that matters. Penix lacks NFL experience, but I rank him for the Giants game at what I believe is his statistical floor, near Jordan Love, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud. Most fantasy playoff teams are not relying on these fellows in Week 16, but let's assume nothing. Penix might be great.
Do expect Trey McBride to score a TD this week
We don't often use the word "expect" and "touchdowns" together because, unless it is LaDainian Tomlinson circa 2006, TDs are hardly predictable. This week, however, McBride faces the Panthers, and the Panthers have been awful against opposing tight ends, permitting the most touchdowns and the second-most PPR points to the position. McBride's Cardinals teammates are well aware he hasn't scored a TD. He enters this week second to Raiders rookie Brock Bowers in tight end fantasy scoring despite nary a receiving touchdown. (He did score a short rushing TD in Week 9.)
It all seems so unfair, doesn't it? There are 58 players listed at tight end who have scored a receiving TD this season, including the Browns' Blake Whiteheart, Jets' Kenny Yeboah and Bills' Quintin Morris. Not familiar with those fellows? We hear you. Giants TE Chris Manhertz has one reception all season. It came in Week 9. It was a 2-yard touchdown. McBride has 89 receptions for 938 yards and a doughnut in the receiving TD column. Some things make little sense.
McBride is a staple in fantasy lineups, so perhaps his investors didn't need much of a pep talk and optimistic view. Bowers is the lone tight end with more catches, yards and targets, and in each case, he is barely ahead. Bowers does have four touchdowns, however. Is it possible McBride will finish as fantasy's top tight end despite retaining that goose egg in the TD column? Well, yeah, it is possible, except ... he is scoring a TD this week.
Don't expect the top Rams WRs to perform similarly
It wasn't too long ago that many fantasy managers treated WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp similarly for value purposes. Each missed time earlier in the season, but when they got together in Week 8, the big numbers started flying. QB Matthew Stafford suddenly became fantasy-relevant again, and each of his wide receivers thrived.
Only one of those WRs is thriving lately, though. Nacua has scored 17 or more points in each of the past six games, and he might have made it eight consecutive games had he not been ejected from the Week 9 game at Seattle. Nacua always seems to be open, and he has seen eight or more targets in those past six games, averaging 108.8 receiving yards in that span. Now we rank him No. 2 at WR, after only the dominant Ja'Marr Chase of the Bengals.
Kupp, however, got shut out on three targets in Week 15 at San Francisco. Weather was a clear factor for many players, but not so much for Nacua. Kupp also caught only 3 of 6 targets in Week 13 at New Orleans, which has a secondary that is quite accommodating for most wide receivers. Perhaps we are reading too much into this. Kupp has surpassed 20 fantasy points in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 7. He remains a solid WR2 option, perhaps better. He just isn't Nacua.
Do trust RB Jerome Ford and WR Jerry Jeudy
Things sure looked different for the Browns in their first meeting with the rival Bengals. That was in Week 7, and QB Deshaun Watson completed 15 of 17 passes. RB Nick Chubb scored on a short TD in his season debut. WR Cedric Tillman and TE David Njoku combined for 18 receptions. We might not see any of these fellows Sunday in Cincinnati. Watson blew out his Achilles tendon that afternoon. Chubb broke his foot this past Sunday. Tillman has missed the past three games with a concussion. Njoku has a hamstring injury.
Only three defenses have permitted more total yards than the Bengals, who are not headed to the NFL playoffs despite a top-5 QB, top-10 RB and the very best WR for fantasy. The defense is the main reason for that. Now, do we in the fantasy world feel the same way about Dorian Thompson-Robinson as we do the reckless Jameis Winston? Of course not, but it doesn't mean the Browns won't move the football and score points. Winston is an exciting, scary, all-or-nothing fantasy option -- he put up 32.98 points at Denver in Week 13, but also minus-0.36 points last week versus the Chiefs. Thompson-Robinson probably will score about 11 fantasy points.
However, we can still like Ford and Jeudy. Underrated Ford broke off a 62-yard TD on Sunday after Chubb got hurt, scoring 18.4 points on nine touches. Ford averages 5.2 yards per rush. A fifth-round pick in the 2022 draft, meant to be a third-down back behind Chubb, Ford caught 44 passes last season, and he has 32 receptions this season. It isn't great volume, but Chubb is out. Perhaps considerably larger D'Onta Foreman will handle Chubb's old role on early downs, but Ford should be heavily involved. He deserves to be involved.
Jeudy, despite averaging better than 21 points over the past seven games -- coinciding with Winston starting -- remains available in more than 14% of ESPN standard leagues. OK, so perhaps Jeudy is long ago rostered in your league, but he has been a WR1 for more than a month now. Jeudy investors didn't care if Winston tossed multiple interceptions in a game. They asked whether Jeudy got his targets. We acknowledge that we liked Jeudy's prognosis more with Winston than with Thompson-Robinson, but still, we cannot deny Jeudy's major breakout.