Now that we're into the fantasy football playoffs, for managers in both 17- and 18-week leagues, it's important to follow the player trends and keep an eye on the upcoming matchups. And we're not talking about the stars on your rosters, either. Those guys are locked in, regardless of the schedule. They got you to this point!
Instead, let's focus on the players who could present some tough decisions when setting your lineups. I'll start with three players to trust, as there's a dual-threat quarterback in here, a running back producing on downhill schemes and a WR2 seeing a bump in volume and route deployment. We'll also look at three players to question, including a quarterback who is sliding in my ranks.
It's time to get another fantasy playoff win -- and advance. Good luck!
Players to trust
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Murray's season has been tough to figure out. Up and down, really. He has posted five games with 20 or more fantasy points. That sells. However, he also has seven games with fewer than 15 points. Over the past four, Murray is managing only 13.3 PPG. And that could create some pause for managers.
But let's look a little deeper here, because Murray has completed 68.7% of his passes since Week 12, with an off-target rate of just 11.1% (sixth lowest in the league). He has two games with four explosive-play throws (completions of 20 or more yards), and we know you get the dual-threat element with Murray (4.5 carries per game this season).
I'm in on Murray's next three matchups, too (@CAR, @LAR, SF). The Carolina Panthers are talent-deficient on defense, and Murray played good football in the previous head-to-head matchups with the Los Angeles Rams (28.54 points in Week 2) and the San Francisco 49ers (24.1 points in Week 5). Plus, let's not forget that the Cardinals are still in the NFC West race. So, these games matter for Murray and the Arizona offense. Lock him in as a QB1.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving has that decisive, downhill running style and the short-area speed and elusiveness to shake defenders. We're seeing it, right? And Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen is really scheming up this Tampa run game with gap (or power) concepts to get both numbers and blocking angles to the play side.
Irving did have to exit the Week 14 game versus the Las Vegas Raiders with back and hip injuries, but he just dropped 117 yards rushing on a very good Los Angeles Chargers defense this past Sunday. Plus, he's averaging 17.7 PPG over his past four games. You can win with that in the fantasy playoffs.
Sure, the presence of Rachaad White in the Tampa backfield limits Irving's ceiling. I get it. But with 14.2 carries per game over this four-week stretch, at 6.2 YPC, with an upcoming slate versus bottom-10 run defenses (@DAL, CAR, NO), Irving should be in the lineup as a lower-tier RB2.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles' run game with Saquon Barkley will remain a foundational aspect of the offense under coordinator Kellen Moore. A.J. Brown will get his targets, too. But don't let that cloud your opinions on Smith, because we've seen a shift in his route deployment over his past two games.
More underneath throws. More catch-and-run targets. More volume, in general. Smith has logged a target share of 36% over the past two games, with 45.9% of his receiving production coming after the catch. And he saw a team-high 12 targets in the Week 15 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith caught a touchdown pass in each game, too, both on end zone throws from quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was much more willing to take the underneath outlets last week versus Pittsburgh.
With his remaining schedule (@WAS, DAL, NYG), playing on a team that is battling for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, I like Smith here as a WR2 in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Players to question
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
Harris is averaging 15.5 carries over his past six games. That's a number we can count on, for the most part, as it meshes with the Steelers' offensive philosophy. It's also a reason I roster Harris in my home league. He's a grinder who gets carries inside the low red zone and near the goal line. He's generally a good fit for the RB2/flex spot.
But during that stretch, Harris has scored more than 15 points just once and posted less than 10 in two games. And the upcoming matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 are pretty tough (@BAL, KC). Both defenses rank in the top 10 versus running backs, with the Kansas City Chiefs checking in at No. 1 overall.
For me, I'm going to sit Harris for the semifinal matchup in our 17-week league. And if I advance, it's probably going to be the same in the title game, because I'm going to bet on the matchups here. However, if you do play in an 18-week league and advance to the championship, Najee should be back in play versus the Cincinnati Bengals, a defense he scored 24.9 points on in Week 13.
Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers
Two weeks ago, in a win over the Chicago Bears, Purdy was dialed in, throwing on time and hitting the schemed voids in Kyle Shanahan's offense. He completed 80% of his throws and posted 22.1 fantasy points in that one. What we expect.
However, outside of that game, Purdy has failed to throw for more than 160 yards in three of his past four, and he has logged multiple touchdown passes in only two of his past seven. Plus, the rushing totals are down, as Purdy has 18 rushing yards over his past three games.
This 49ers offense lacks some juice, too. No Christian McCaffrey to win matchups in the passing game. The club misses the route running of Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo Samuel Sr. has looked a step slower on film this season, too. And I do feel that Purdy has failed to throw in rhythm consistently, and his footwork simply has not been as sharp.
So, where does that leave us on Purdy, with his upcoming schedule (@MIA, DET, ARI)? If Miami is still playing, meaning those guys are locked in, then it's a tough road matchup. Detroit? The Lions are banged up on defense, but they still have some game-changers out there. And Purdy completed only 54.3% of his throws, with two picks, in the first meeting of the season versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. I think this is a tough slate of games, which is why I'll have Purdy ranked as a fringe QB1 for the remainder of the season.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
I wanted to write up Henry because he was one of my favorite streaming options this season. He's an easy underneath outlet for rookie quarterback Drake Maye, he can stretch the seams, and the volume has been pretty consistent. Over his past four games, Henry has averaged 7.5 targets and 10.7 fantasy points. You can win with that, especially in deeper formats.
But the issue here, when trying to make a run for a title, is Henry's lack of touchdown production and his upcoming matchups. Henry has just one touchdown catch on the season, back in Week 6 versus the Houston Texans. That's it. And his next three games (@BUF, LAC, BUF) could present some conflict for Maye and the Patriots passing game.
Yes, you can still play Henry, given the volatility of the tight end position in fantasy football. But I don't see a ton of upside here in the critical matchups to close out the 2024 fantasy schedule.