Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense. Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You would not believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you are (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't presume Deebo Samuel Sr. is the 49ers' top WR
Samuel enters the Week 12 game at Green Bay averaging 11.3 PPR points per game, which not only is far below expectations (he averaged 16.2 PPR points last season) but is barely a top-50 figure among wide receivers this season. Blame several factors for his underachieving, including his own injuries and those of some key teammates, but fantasy managers keep treating Samuel as a safe WR2 option and considerably more valuable than emerging Jauan Jennings, despite evidence to the contrary.
Jennings is the most-added WR in ESPN leagues this week, but he deserves to be rostered more. He -- not Samuel -- is the one with 11 targets in each of the past two weeks since the 49ers returned from their bye week and since RB Christian McCaffrey made his season debut. Jennings has 17 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown in those games, for a total of 41.4 PPR points. It's not a fluke. Jennings scored 46.5 PPR points in Week 3 alone. He has 88 or more receiving yards in half of his eight games this season. If any 49ers WR looks like a WR2, it is Jennings.
Samuel has reached 80 receiving yards in only two of nine games this season, and he has scored 18.7 PPR points total over the past two games. Samuel has not been a high-volume receiving option since his one great season in 2021. In fact, Samuel has been a tad disappointing in the three seasons since, inconsistent on the field and constantly battling injuries. After running eight times for 23 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 this season, Samuel has 19 carries for 56 yards and nary a touchdown since then. The 49ers simply do not rely on him much anymore.
The 49ers should have the full complement of their mighty offense versus the Packers, with the healthy, rejuvenated McCaffrey handling the big volume, TE George Kittle (hamstring) making big plays -- he leads the 49ers in receptions and has caught seven of QB Brock Purdy's 13 TD passes -- and WRs Samuel, Jennings and rookie Ricky Pearsall, who did not catch either of his two targets in Week 11. Even without Brandon Aiyuk (knee) for the season, this is a lot. Purdy is certainly reliable. Jennings, still available in more than 20% of leagues, looks like he is. Samuel may or may not be, so make sure he is your best option instead of just assuming he is.
Do add Adam Thielen in place of Diontae Johnson
Thielen, who has not played since Week 3 due to a hamstring injury, may not be featured in a significant role in Carolina's rebuilding offense, if he even plays this Sunday at all. Still, it really cannot be a smaller role than that of his former Panthers teammate Johnson, who is a nonfactor with the Ravens and no longer relevant for fantasy managers.
The Ravens acquired Johnson from the Panthers three weeks ago, but they have not made any room for the newcomer in the offense. Perhaps the truly minimal cost they paid Carolina plays a role here. Johnson looks like insurance for a Zay Flowers/Rashod Bateman injury. He has one reception on four targets in three games. The Ravens do not run many three-WR sets and the incumbents don't need much help. Johnson is among the most-dropped options this week, but he remains rostered in more leagues than Quentin Johnston, Christian Watson, Jerry Jeudy and in 40% more leagues than Bateman, who has 13 targets and a TD reception the past two games.
In theory, a healthy Thielen will battle rookies Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker for targets, but even as the top Carolina WR option this season, Legette has not mattered much in standard fantasy leagues. He hasn't reached five receptions or 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 4. Sure, Legette has scored four of the 11 receiving touchdowns for the Panthers this season, but it isn't much. Thielen may help his production a bit, giving defenses someone else to watch, but QB Bryce Young just isn't a productive player yet.
The Panthers face the Chiefs Sunday, and no Panthers come recommended, including RB Chuba Hubbard. However, after this week, Carolina does boast attractive matchups, including a pair with the Buccaneers and a Week 15 meeting with the downtrodden Cowboys. Thielen probably won't return to the stunning level from early last season, when he was a top-10 fantasy WR through seven weeks, but he should produce -- perhaps as a WR4 or 5 -- more than Johnson, who needs the Ravens to lose one of their starting WRs or drastically adjust their offensive plan. Add Thielen for Week 13 and beyond in deeper formats and move on from Johnson.
One more Panthers thought: rookie Jonathon Brooks, the first RB selected in the 2024 draft, may play on Sunday and perhaps he shines in his debut. Hubbard has earned the right to continue seeing big volume, though. While we cannot trust Brooks in fantasy yet, don't presume to know what happens in 2025. Yes, Hubbard recently signed a shiny, new contract for four years and relatively big RB money. It does not mean you should avoid trading for Brooks in keeper/dynasty formats. Brooks still has a bright future. Hubbard may have a solid one as well, in Carolina or elsewhere. If you liked Brooks six months ago, like him now, but for 2025 and beyond.
Don't force Anthony Richardson into lineups
Perhaps we would all like to believe Richardson, the multi-skilled, second-year QB for the Colts, turned the proverbial corner in the Week 11 win over the Jets, when he completed 20 of 30 passes for a career-high 272 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a pair of scores. Richardson put up 28.08 fantasy points, his most since Week 1. The misguided, two-game benching is over and now the Colts proudly claim Richardson is the starter the rest of the way. All is well! The Colts have to say this after the way backup Joe Flacco played, but must we all believe that suddenly everything is fine?
This week, the Colts face the mighty Lions, perhaps the best team in the sport. Only five teams permit fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks. Richardson showed glimpses of being a fantasy star against the Jets with smarter decisions and more aggressive running at the goal line, but the Jets are terrible and quite dysfunctional, and that includes defensively. We need to see more of Richardson before trusting him in fantasy, and we should be realistic. Let's see several games of improved accuracy -- he wasn't good on short passes last week -- and game management, not to mention sustained durability, before we trust him in November and beyond in fantasy.
Do drop every kicker on his bye week, even Justin Tucker
Let's get this out of the way right up front: six teams serve their bye this week, then everyone plays during the week of Thanksgiving, and the final six teams are off in Week 14. It seems preposterous to have bye weeks remaining in December, when the fantasy playoffs may begin in many leagues, but whatevs. That's the deal. Live with it.
Kickers aren't worth keeping on your bench when they are not kicking. Ravens K Justin Tucker used to be an exception here, but way, way back in Week 3 we noted in this column that the future Hall of Famer was not off to a great start, and fantasy managers should not keep him around based on legend. Despite his Week 11 debacle, when he missed three kicks, Tucker enters this week tied for eighth in kicker fantasy points, though since the Ravens have yet to serve their bye week, he is tied for 14th -- among kickers with more than 35 fantasy points -- at 8.2 points per game. Most importantly, he doesn't stand out in a good way. He is like most everyone else.
Kicker performance is unpredictable and not always their fault. They can't create their own opportunities, for example. This is somewhat proven by the fact Tucker, Evan McPherson of the Bengals and Younghoe Koo of the Falcons rank among the least accurate options this season. It happens.
Tucker remains the most-rostered kicker in ESPN standard leagues, at 95.7%, which is fine, I guess, but misguided. He is kicking this week and next, but the Ravens are on their bye in Week 14, and Tucker must go. Drop him. And drop the six kickers on bye this week (a group that includes the aforementioned McPherson and Koo). Use the bench spot on someone with upside, a QB or flex option who could matter next week or in December. Stop keeping bye-week kickers around.