Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... trading for these players helps you make the fantasy playoffs
Baker Mayfield, QB, and Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: We are focusing this column on the next three weeks (Weeks 12 through 14). The Buccaneers come off their bye week ready to face the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. These three downtrodden franchises are not only playing for next season before we even get to Thanksgiving, but the three defenses permit plenty of PPR points to just about everyone, notably QBs and RBs. Mayfield struggled in Week 10 against the 49ers, but he remains one of five QBs averaging 20 PPR fantasy points per game.
Evans is a WR, of course, but after not playing since Week 7 because of a hamstring injury (and healing up more during the team's bye), he is healthy and looking to achieve the 11th 1,000-yard receiving season of his 11-year career. With this schedule not only upcoming but also later in the season (the Bucs finish with the Cowboys, Panthers and Saints!) he should get there if he can simply stay healthy. While you're at it, go get RBs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, too. Even sharing touches, each will thrive.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, and Malik Nabers, WR, Giants: The Buccaneers giveth for fantasy managers on both sides of the ball. The Giants host the Buccaneers in Week 12, then they play the Cowboys and Saints. That means Tracy, with 100-yard rushing games in two of his past three games and little competition for touches, gets to face three of the six easiest defenses to accrue RB PPR points against. Tracy should be plenty motivated, too, after his most recent touch was an overtime fumble in Germany that led directly to a Week 10 loss to the Panthers. Get Nabers back into lineups, too (the Giants were on bye in Week 11). With QB Daniel Jones benched, yes, even backup Tommy DeVito is a better option to get the ball downfield for the fantastic but frustratingly underutilized Nabers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: Some fantasy managers might want to shy away from Kelce after the Bills held him to two catches for 8 yards in Sunday's win. Prior to that, Kelce was a target machine, scoring more than 20 PPR points in three consecutive games. We should trust that version more than what we saw Sunday. Now is a wonderful time to see if the Kelce investor in your league will part with him. The Chiefs will bounce back in Week 12 against the horrid Panthers, whose defense permits the most PPR points to tight ends, and then it is the Raiders, who are fifth easiest. The Bills made it a point to shut Kelce down. The Panthers and Raiders won't be so lucky.
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers: Herbert, who wasn't expected to perform close to the level of a QB1 this season, is among the most added QBs in ESPN standard leagues, yet he's still available in more than 30% of them despite having scored 19 or more PPR points in four consecutive games. Has your QB done this? Nope, because Herbert is the only one who has achieved this. The Chargers face the Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs the next three weeks, and while those teams might all be playoff bound, they are considerably better at stopping the run than the pass. The Ravens remain the second-easiest team to accrue QB PPR points against, and the Falcons recently permitted more than 48 PPR points to QBs Derek Carr and Bo Nix. See if you can still trade for -- or even add -- the surprising Herbert.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers: Perhaps this one seems obvious, because Pickens boasts more than 70 PPR points over four games, coinciding with QB Russell Wilson becoming the starter. Things might get even better. The Steelers face the Browns twice in the next three games, and the Browns permit the fifth-most PPR points to wide receivers. In between those games, the Steelers face the Bengals, and the Bengals are struggling mightily on defense. Pickens and Wilson really should produce big numbers the next three weeks, at the least.
Don't be surprised if ... trading for these players does not help
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers: What? This fellow is enjoying a fantastic season! Well, yes, Dobbins rushed for two more touchdowns Sunday night against the Bengals, including the game winner in the closing seconds, giving him eight rushing scores in 10 games. We love that. We don't love Dobbins being held to fewer than 60 rushing yards in four of five games, and six of eight (making him a bit TD dependent). He plays little role in the passing game, and Gus Edwards is back in play to steal touches. Dobbins has never had this many touches in an NFL season, too. In addition, the Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs are defenses among the top 10 in permitting the fewest PPR points to RBs this season. The Chiefs rank first.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs: Speaking of the Chiefs, of course it is good news that Pacheco should return in Week 12 after surgery to repair his broken fibula cost him eight games, but we must be realistic about his volume in the initial weeks. Kareem Hunt has handled a large workload, and we cannot presume it simply disappears. Expect a timeshare for a few weeks, which decreases the value for each player. The Buccaneers' running backs boast more value than the Chiefs' running backs for the next three weeks, and perhaps the rest of the regular season.
Any Cleveland Browns: QB Jameis Winston and WR Jerry Jeudy were top fantasy stars in Week 11, each reaching 26 PPR points, but that was against the Saints. The Saints are not good. Up next are the Steelers, arguably the best defense in the sport, then the team hits the road to face the Broncos and the Steelers again, and in case you were wondering, the Chiefs are up in Week 15. Good luck, Browns! Hey, at least the Browns should be trailing in these games, so perhaps the passing game provides some statistical goodness.
Teams with bye weeks: OK, so more than one third of the league still hasn't taken a weekend off, with six teams on the shelf in Week 12 (Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Saints, Jets, Jaguars) and another six in Week 14 (Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Commanders, Ravens, Texans). This hardly signals one should avoid trading for QBs Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, RBs Bijan Robinson or Jonathan Taylor, or WRs Ja'Marr Chase or Nico Collins, but the bye week must be a factor. That means one fewer game to help a fantasy roster. Jackson or Chase might end up the top PPR scorers this season, but trade for them this week and it might be a tad frustrating when you still need to replace them for a critical pre-playoff matchup.