Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and food for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager so perhaps you would.
Don't expect C.J. Stroud to play at a QB1 level
Stroud has averaged 14.4 PPR points per game this season, well outside the top 10 at his position, though fantasy managers assume/hope that number rises with the return of star WR Nico Collins. The narrative on Stroud is that he has struggled because Collins and Stefon Diggs (knee) have been hurt and sat out games. Collins (hamstring) is on the mend but no lock to play in Week 10. His pending return will help, but Stroud was not close to a QB1 option even when he had Collins and Diggs. Stroud averaged just 16.44 PPR points during the first five games of the season while Collins led the league in receiving yards.
What the Texans really need is better line protection, and that seems unlikely at this point of the season. Stroud averaged 18.4 PPR points last season when, as a rookie, he had ample time to throw. He was sacked 38 times, hurried 47 times -- not low figures, but not ridiculous -- and he was the No. 9 fantasy QB. This season, Stroud has already been sacked 30 times in nine games (second in the league), and he has been hurried 41 times (most in the league).
Put simply, even with a prime Jerry Rice to throw to, Stroud doesn't have much of a chance as he's forced to scramble in the pocket, and he is not much of a runner. Stroud has 310 rushing yards in 24 career NFL games. Four quarterbacks have that many rushing yards this season. Stroud remains rostered in more than 90% of ESPN standard leagues but, even though it might not be his fault, he doesn't deserve it.
Stroud's lack of running ability was a modest reason to question whether he could match his fantasy performance from his rookie season, and it reminds a bit of Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. Stroud, the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, was terrific throwing the football last season but averaging barely 10 rushing yards lowers the statistical floor in fantasy, for sure. Last week, Stroud rushed eight times for 59 yards, each a career-best mark, but potentially aberrant. If numbers like those continue, the value changes. They probably won't, though.
Do keep Jordan Mason rostered, just in case
We all want to see San Francisco 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) healthy and performing at a high level, just like last season when he led all fantasy scorers by averaging 24.5 PPR points per game. McCaffrey played incredibly, and he was the obvious first pick in most ESPN average live drafts, but he hasn't delivered any numbers this season. McCaffrey should play this week against the Buccaneers, but we haven't been promised a typical workload and, more than with most players, we can't assume McCaffrey stays healthy enough to suit up and perform in the remaining eight games.
That is why keeping Mason rostered is a wise choice, if you have the room. Thanks to the skills of Mason and others around him, and a terrific scheme, Mason (shoulder) remains fourth in the league in rushing, despite barely playing in Week 8 and healing up during the team's bye last week. Mason isn't a pass catcher, and he might not be better than rookie Isaac Guerendo, who starred in relief of Mason two weeks ago. We know a leading indicator for future injury is previous injury. McCaffrey -- and Mason, really -- are hardly locks to return to health and stay there. In deeper formats, try to keep Guerendo around, too.
Don't be scared to roster and activate both Buccaneers RBs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving continue to share touches, much to the dismay of myriad fantasy managers, but they are productive players. Don't let the Monday night outing against the Chiefs dissuade you. The Chiefs are special. They shut down many players.
In Week 8, White and Irving each topped 15 PPR points, and in Week 7 they combined for 45.8 PPR points. ESPN Fantasy projects Irving for more fantasy points this week, but each player is relevant even against the 49ers, who, by the way, are merely middle of the pack in permitting PPR points to running backs.
QB Baker Mayfield continues to put up top-five fantasy numbers without injured WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and it's not because of their WR replacements. TE Cade Otton has starred, of course, but Mayfield keeps looking for White and Irving, as each does damage in open space. They didn't do much through the air in the Chiefs' loss, but White caught 11 passes for 109 yards and three touchdowns during Weeks 8 and 9, and Irving caught 10 passes for 94 yards in that span. Perhaps fantasy managers rostering each cannot choose between them, but maybe they don't need to. Each is a reasonable flex play.
The Buccaneers serve their bye in Week 11, and after that, the schedule looks promising. Evans should return by then, but it might not affect the running backs so much. It probably affects Otton more. Tampa Bay still has a pair of games against the terrible Panthers, and the Bucs get to play the Raiders, Cowboys and Saints. Irving seems better suited for early-down duty and more rushing attempts than White, but snaps and touches have been relatively even in the past three weeks. It might continue, but it might not be such a bad thing.
Do continue to rely on Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard
The Panthers made Texas RB Jonathan Brooks the first at his position off the draft board this year, and while they have been patient in rushing him back from an ACL tear, fantasy managers -- bastions of patience, for sure -- had high expectations. They drafted Brooks in most leagues, on the assumption he would sit out only a month of the season and then run wild like the obvious superstar everyone agrees he is. Even today, Brooks -- with nary a rushing attempt -- remains rostered in nearly 60% of ESPN standard leagues. It is optimistic and unusual.
Perhaps everything works out, but it is Week 10, and the barely competitive Panthers and emerging Hubbard just agreed to a new four-year contract and, well, this probably does not bode well for Brooks having an extensive workload this season. The new deal hardly guarantees Hubbard sticks around for four years -- he won't, of course -- but we must give this player credit. He is fifth in the NFL in rushing for an offense 29th in scoring, and the No. 9 RB in ESPN PPR scoring. He's not going away. Continue relying on Hubbard, and lower expectations for Brooks for this season.