Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Editor's note: Trevor Lawrence was originally the first player discussed in this column, but he has since been removed due to a shoulder injury, which has put his status for Week 10 in question.
Don't be surprised if ... Travis Kelce again soars past 100 receptions
Fantasy managers were rightly not pleased with Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce during the first two months of the season, when he caught 28 passes in six games. We expected far more production than 4.6 receptions per game from this nine-time Pro Bowl option and future Hall of Famer. Few were cutting Kelce in fantasy -- or his underachieving QB Patrick Mahomes -- but he and Lions TE Sam LaPorta were second- or third-round picks in many ESPN standard leagues, and each was underperforming.
Kelce surpassed 100 receptions in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and here we go with another even-year theme, as he has 52 receptions in eight games. It hasn't been pleasant until the past two games, and a pace for two touchdowns is far below expectations, but myriad receptions sure go a long way toward overcoming that in PPR formats, creating a high floor. Las Vegas Raiders rookie Brock Bowers is the lone tight end with more receptions on the season. In fact, only 20 tight ends have more receptions this season than Kelce has just over the past fortnight. Time to trust this fellow again as he's on his way to catching 100 passes. Now, if we could only get LaPorta on track!
Don't be surprised if ... James Conner finally plays in all the games
Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner wasn't supposed to reach a career high for rushing yards in his age-29 season, not when the organization used a third-round pick in the most recent NFL draft to secure Florida State star Trey Benson as the clear, future option. Benson scored his first NFL touchdown in Week 9, but he has been scarcely used. Conner surpassed 100 rushing yards for the fourth time this season in that easy win over the Bears, and he is on pace to shatter his career mark of 1,040 yards, set just last season.
One reason why Conner has failed to surpass 1,000 rushing yards on an annual basis is because he has yet to play in every game of an NFL season, but he is 9-for-9 so far this season, and the Cardinals lead the NFC West. The organization last earned a division title nine seasons ago in 2015, and they have appeared in one playoff game since then, losing a wild card game in the 2021 campaign, 34-11 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. Conner scored the lone Cardinals touchdown in the loss.
One would think the bruising Conner -- who accrues a strong portion of his rushing yards by breaking tackles and escaping collisions, which often lead to his physical woes -- will do whatever he can to suit up in each game for these Cardinals, looking for his first playoff victory. He played in 15 games during that 2021 season, his first for the Cardinals after four seasons with the Steelers, and in 13 games each of the past two seasons. What is interesting is the games he missed did not come at the end, with the team out of contention. Conner missed three October weeks in 2022, and Weeks 6 through 9 last season. We're already past Week 9 now. This is a good sign!
Conner remains healthy and productive, piling on yards after contact while remaining healthy, or at least healthy enough to keep playing, and he is more than halfway to playing in every regular-season game for the first time. Only 14 running backs boast more PPR points. Conner has finished as a top-10 running back in fantasy scoring in two seasons, but because of the touchdowns, not the rushing yards. This season, he may get there for the yards and touchdowns, but also the durability.