Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and food for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager so perhaps you would.
Don't be overeager with Lions, Vikings TEs
Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta, a major statistical underachiever much of this season after leading all tight ends in PPR scoring last season, comes off his biggest game yet, a 16.8-point outing in Week 8. Fantasy managers are excited, because they saw what LaPorta was capable of last season as a rookie. Meanwhile, the player he ostensibly replaced in Detroit, two-time Pro Bowler T.J. Hockenson, is also on the minds of many a fantasy manager this week as he prepares for his season debut. People are excited about this one, too.
We certainly do not aim to suppress excitement, but the league is coming off literally the best week ever for the tight end position, and fantasy managers should not presume LaPorta and Hockenson deliver big fantasy point totals this week. It is dangerous. You've already added the Buccaneers' Cade Otton, Packers' Tucker Kraft and Ravens' Mark Andrews, while the Commanders' Zach Ertz, Bears' Cole Kmet and Patriots' Hunter Henry remain productive and available in many leagues. This position suddenly has depth.
LaPorta remains rostered in more than 94% of ESPN leagues, thanks to his 2023 achievements when he averaged 14.1 points per game, but this season, even after his big game last week, LaPorta averages 8.5 points per game. He caught all six of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown in the Week 8 blowout against the Titans, but the Titans, if you haven't noticed, are terrible. Some may view LaPorta as trending upward, on a trajectory similar to last season, but it's more likely this was a short-term blip with WR Jameson Williams suspended (though he is out this week as well).
Hockenson is finally ready to play after tearing his ACL and MCL the day after Christmas last season, though it is noteworthy he didn't have the surgery until nearly a month later. The Vikings, with 21 receptions from their tight ends in seven games, look forward to having Hockenson as a viable option, but it is foolish to expect a full workload initially or high attention from the quarterback. The Vikings, even on a two-game losing streak, will be cautious. Hockenson still hasn't played with Vikings QB Sam Darnold, either.
Ultimately, fantasy managers should also focus on another statistic that lessens the chance LaPorta and Hockenson become consistent fantasy options at all this season: This season's Lions and Vikings rank as two of the bottom-three teams in pass attempts this season, and each employs a top-3 wide receiver and a running back who catches passes. These teams, and the Philadelphia Eagles (second-fewest pass attempts), are run-first teams. Goff and Darnold are not throwing much. Their teams (and the Eagles) are winning this way. LaPorta and Hockenson may be nice stories today -- and Dallas Goedert when he returns -- but you may not feel this way next week.
Do pay close attention to WRs left behind in trades
Good for Diontae Johnson, kind of. The Panthers are going nowhere and now Johnson, after this week's trade, gets to play with league MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and presumably appear in a Ravens playoff game or two. Fantasy managers get excited when veteran wide receivers end up in October trades. There are Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, big names, for sure, but not-so-big numbers. And look at the teams they left behind. Several of those fellows are outperforming the eventual Hall of Famers.
Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers, an actual top 25 WR in PPR formats last season, remains available in more than 30% of ESPN standard leagues. Meyers was a lot better than most people realize last season. He couldn't compete with then-teammate Adams for catches or targets, but Meyers was a terrific value for fantasy managers, averaging 13.7 points per game (more than Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, etc.). Last week, Meyers returned from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury and he caught one of two touchdown passes thrown by Gardner Minshew. There are WR2 possibilities moving forward here.
Panthers WR Xavier Legette was the final pick of the first round this past summer, and he isn't some raw, thin slot option. Legette is 230 pounds and a clear red zone target, as we have seen recently with touchdowns in three of the past five games, despite challenging quarterback uncertainty. The Panthers have to keep pushing QB Bryce Young and see if he improves, and Legette should help. Even with veteran Adam Thielen on the way back to the lineup, Legette should produce.
As for Johnson, again, not to worry anyone, but he saw a 22% target share with the Panthers, which placed him among the top 20 wide receivers. Last season, with the Steelers, fantasy managers were frustrated when he was targeted only 18% of the time. Sorry, managers, but the Ravens -- like the Lions, Vikings and Eagles -- are one of the few offenses that execute more running plays than passing ones, and the Ravens still have Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Andrews, etc. Look for Legette to outproduce Johnson the rest of the way, and Meyers may do the same when compared to Adams, the new Jet.
Don't give up on Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. yet
Some/many may be wondering why ESPN Fantasy initially projected Etienne, who has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury, for more fantasy points than Tank Bigsby in the Week 9 game in Philadelphia. As of this writing, we weren't even sure Etienne was a sure thing to play. Bigsby was fantasy's top running back in Week 5 (25.9 points), and he came close to that number in a solid Week 7 (23.8 points). The Auburn product, in his second season, boasts 46 touches over the past two games, averages 5.8 yards per carry this season, and is averaging 15.3 points per game over the past four games. How can the Jaguars not keep playing him, everyone wonders?
The reason why Etienne projects better is because Jaguars coach Doug Pederson -- yes, still the coach for now -- has repeatedly said Etienne will not lose his starting job due to injury -- one of those old-school coach, former player things that shouldn't matter, but it does. Should Etienne return this week, he will be a key part of the offense (or next week, if he returns then). While we can understand the loyalty and sentiment, it feels silly because Etienne is not having a great season, averaging 4.1 yards per rush and single-digit fantasy points per game. The Jaguars seem better with Bigsby handling big volume.
Perhaps they are, but we should remember Etienne is a good player, and reports of his demise are premature. Last season, only two running backs scored more PPR points, and he averaged 16.6 points per game. This season, even as he was struggling a bit, he scored double-digit points in four of the first five games, with an inconsistent but occasional target rate aiding his numbers. Etienne caught 58 passes last season, tied for sixth most among running backs. Bigsby has four receptions in 25 NFL games. A natural timeshare would seem prudent, but it undersells Etienne.
Catches matter in PPR formats, and even if Etienne and Bigsby share touches, this works out positively for Etienne. It may work for Bigsby, too. Bristle at Coach Pederson's comments if you wish, but a healthy Etienne is a likely RB2 option for fantasy, given proper volume. The Jaguars head to Philadelphia sans their top receivers, and everyone is focusing on their coach returning to the town where he won a Super Bowl. Etienne returning to the lineup would be a big deal. You don't have to activate him against an Eagles defense that permits the sixth-fewest points per game to running backs, but you can't ignore him, either.