Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't compare the value of Josh Allen to Patrick Mahomes
While each star quarterback is underwhelming fantasy managers so far, we should not treat how Mahomes is performing the same as what is occurring with Allen. To briefly recap, Mahomes hasn't scored 20 PPR points in a game since last Thanksgiving. He is averaging 14.2 PPR points per game this season, which, for context, is worse than the Saints' Derek Carr and barely ahead of Broncos rookie Bo Nix, who is rostered in 9% of ESPN leagues.
Meanwhile, Allen was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in Weeks 1 and 3. He wasn't close to that level during the other weeks -- he completed only 9 of 30 passes versus the Texans last week! -- but at least we see how he can be great and carry fantasy teams. These were two of the three top quarterbacks in most fantasy leagues, along with the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, whom nobody is whining about.
If you had asked most fantasy managers what would have concerned them about Allen, most people would point to the turnovers. Allen threw 18 interceptions last season, second to then-Commander, now-Seahawks backup Sam Howell, but we didn't care because Allen also was fourth in passing yards, was tied for fifth in passing touchdowns and had 15 rushing touchdowns, which was quite a feat. Through five games this season, Allen is 22nd in passing yards and has two rushing touchdowns. He has tossed nary an interception, which is wild, since 34 other QBs have thrown one, and not at all in line with his history.
While Mahomes underwhelms every week but with a reasonable floor, Allen has been the quintessential all-or-nothing fantasy QB so far. We rank him among our top 10 for this Monday against the Jets. Will he score 30 fantasy points or just 10, though? We think Allen is worth the risk. Sure, I ranked some players ahead of him I would not have thought about a month ago, such as Kirk Cousins and Jayden Daniels, but that risk is based into the shocking ranking.
In an odd way, this is a bit like Steelers QB Justin Fields -- though comparisons should end there -- another runner with a high statistical ceiling who outscored Allen in Weeks 2, 4 and 5: the scoring variance is rather wide. It isn't for Mahomes, who saddens us (and is on the bye this week), but at least provides double-digit fantasy points each week. Allen has not done that. We seem OK with some variance because of the upside, and the upside remains.
Do notice how that other Giants WR is performing
We all acknowledge how great Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers is, but we have been too slow to react to third-year option Wan'Dale Robinson. I wrote about the Giants earlier this week, noting that QB Daniel Jones is not the same statistical fellow from either of the past two seasons, but Nabers isn't the only reason. Robinson is key, too, and perhaps few realize how special his role has become.
Nabers and Robinson each rank in the top five in percentage of team targets, which helps prove the team's lack of receiving depth when each is active, but they are not getting there the same way. No other offense boasts a pair of players among the top 20 in this metric. Robinson did not see more volume and produce bigger stats with Nabers absent in Week 5 at Seattle. He just did his normal thing, and we'd all take 13.8 points per game.
Percentage of team targets tells us which quarterbacks have taken a whopping liking to certain receivers, and it also gives us hope for some of the struggling ones, such as Steelers starter George Pickens, the Panthers' Diontae Johnson and Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey. There were no surprises among last year's leaders (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown). The only team to feature a pair of pass catchers -- since it could be a tight end or running back, although it never is -- in the top 20 was the Buccaneers, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Perhaps they'll get there again.
However, Robinson's value is quite different in non-PPR formats. Entering this week, he is on pace for 108 receptions, which is terrific (only six fellows caught 108 passes last season), but only 782 receiving yards, which is not (43 fellows reached that mark). It is quite difficult to catch that many passes and gain so few yards, but Robinson averages a mere 4.9 yards per target and a paltry 7.2 yards per catch. The latter figure ranks 125th out of 141 wide receivers, and the only wide receiver with a lower average is the Browns' Elijah Moore, and with less than half the receptions. Last season, 23 players caught 80 passes. Only six of those 23 didn't surpass 1,000 receiving yards, all of whom were tight ends you are familiar with.
What Robinson is doing is valuable -- in PPR leagues -- but also a bit misleading. The Giants have kind of turned this 5-foot-8, 185-pound guy into their tight end, their version of last season's Evan Engram or T.J. Hockenson. There is nothing empirically wrong with that if it works and rejuvenates the quarterback and the offense, and it might continue. But we should be aware, because what Robinson is doing also lacks some statistical upside for wide receivers. In an odd way, he is the wide receiver version of the safe but disappointing Mahomes. Robinson came with less fanfare. Enjoy these "tight end" numbers.
Don't assume the Patriots' offense will remain dormant
On the surface, it seems the Patriots are placing rookie QB Drake Maye in precisely the difficult situation they wanted to avoid. Veteran Jacoby Brissett started the first five weeks, barely threw the football and was under constant pressure by opposing defenses. The Patriots have lost four games in a row. Starting Maye versus a strong Texans pass rush appears peculiar. How can the No. 3 pick in the draft succeed this week and for the next few months?
Maye's baseline to succeed for fantasy purposes is low, but for others around him it is higher. The offensive line remains, well, offensive, but Maye boasts a big body with a strong arm, and he rushed for more than 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns over his last two seasons at North Carolina. He can throw. Patriots rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk should be one of the most-added wide receivers, but he remains available in nearly 90% of ESPN standard leagues. WR DeMario Douglas and TE Hunter Henry also look better with at least the threat of a downfield passing game. Brissett averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, second worst among qualified QBs (second to Deshaun Watson, of course).
Maye is a must-add in superflex formats. All reasonable quarterbacks are, especially during these bye weeks, but there is noteworthy upside here. No, he probably will not perform like Jayden Daniels, but we also must stop comparing all rookie quarterbacks. Daniels is clearly special, as C.J. Stroud was last season. The Bears' Caleb Williams might be. The Panthers' Bryce Young might not be, but as a rookie even he made WR Adam Thielen quite relevant for fantasy for the first half of last season. Even in a challenging situation, Maye might thrive, but watch how Polk, Douglas and Henry, as well as RB Rhamondre Stevenson improve, too.
Those concerned about Saints WR Chris Olave producing should look at the Derek Carr injury not necessarily as a positive, but not as a negative, either. Spencer Rattler was not the high pick Maye was, but he can throw the football down the field. Arm strength is not an issue, but decision-making might be. Carr was airing things out to WR Rashid Shaheed this season, but Olave is also averaging a career best in yards per target. He simply wasn't getting enough targets. Perhaps this will change with Rattler playing, or perhaps Alvin Kamara will get 30 rushing attempts. Be open to the potential here. Take Maye over Rattler in superflex, but take them both.