It's Week 5 of the fantasy football season, and offenses across the NFL are starting to develop an identity. Player usage and scheme. Key tendencies that give us a jump when setting our lineups. We can see where quarterbacks are distributing the ball, or how wide receivers are being deployed at multiple levels of the route tree. It's more than just volume for running backs, too, as field position and game situation matter.
As these offensive trends develop, the fantasy impact follows suit, both positive and negative. That's why I want to look at some of the emerging talent across the league while also hitting on the higher-profile players who haven't met expectations through four games. Let's start with a quarterback question I would have never anticipated before the season started.
Who has the higher ceiling: Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes?
No one would have asked this in August, right? But after four games, Mayfield has averaged 21.5 fantasy PPG (QB4) and Mahomes is at 14.4 (QB17).
I think Mayfield is absolutely hammering the ball right now, too. Throwing with confidence and location. He has also set up with two top-level targets in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, plus he is using his legs -- situationally -- as he's recorded a touchdown run in two of four games this season.
Yes, Mahomes has made the critical plays to lead the Chiefs to a 4-0 start. We see it. But from a fantasy football perspective, the numbers just aren't there for a player who had the second-highest ADP among QBs.
Mahomes has thrown for over 250 yards just once this season, with only eight attempts of 20-plus air yards, and he has recorded at least one interception in every game played. With Rashee Rice now potentially down for an extended period, which Chiefs wide receiver has the traits to work the dirty areas of the field? That's a question you have to ask for a West Coast-based pass game.
Could you trade Mahomes? Sure, but you aren't getting solid value in return, not after Mahomes has failed to reach the 17-point mark in any game this season. And that's why I go back to Mayfield, because he's a starter in 12-team leagues, with a higher fantasy ceiling than Mahomes as we enter Week 5.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' rushing attack
Jackson has thrown a total of 33 passes during the past two games. That's it. And this Ravens offense suddenly has an old-school feel to it. But Jackson has also been ultra-efficient throwing the ball, completing 75.8% of his passes during this two-game stretch, and the QB run game under coordinator Todd Monken is the best in the league right now.
Jackson, who leads all quarterbacks with 308 yards rushing, has logged 15 carries on designed rushes over the past two games, scoring a touchdown in both, while averaging 8.7 YPC. Plus, with Derrick Henry in the backfield, it creates major conflict for the "read" defender on these designed runs. Can't play both the quarterback and the running back. Pair that with Monken getting added numbers to the play side, which creates an open runway for Lamar to attack, and we are looking at a running system that is extremely tough to defend.
So, while Jackson isn't throwing with heavy volume right now, which could potentially change based on matchups and injuries, the Ravens are rolling again on offense. And Jackson is producing 22.8 fantasy PPG (QB2).
Mark Andrews' rapidly declining value
In Weeks 1 and 2, Andrews ran 52 total routes. Decent number there. And while the production wasn't great -- six catches on seven targets, 65 yards receiving -- managers could at least look at his route deployment, expecting Andrews to eventually see more volume in the pass game.
However, Andrews' usage fell off the cliff in the past two games, as he ran a total of just nine routes, logging two targets and failing to catch a single pass. Rough.
As we talked about above with Lamar and the Ravens' offense, game plans will change as the season progresses, which creates new tendencies as it relates to personnel and scheme. But right now, Andrews is simply being used as a blocker. Not the role fantasy managers anticipated when they drafted Andrews at an overall ADP of 45 (TE3).
So, is it time to cut a tight end who was a locked-in fantasy starter for so many years? I don't think so. He belongs on the bench for now, and you'll need to find a streamer or a waiver pickup in his place. But given how brittle the TE landscape is in fantasy football, I would hold on to Andrews to see if the Ravens get him back in the mix as a seam-stretching target for Lamar.
Aaron Jones off to hot start
I saw Jones as a lower-tier RB2 this summer, which I thought was pretty fair. Here's a veteran, on a new team, heading into his eighth pro season. That's a pass-heavy system in Minnesota, too. And I really wasn't sold on Sam Darnold running the show once the club lost rookie QB J.J. McCarthy due to a knee injury.
With Darnold producing, however, in an offense that has been moving the ball and scoring points, Jones has quietly posted top-10 numbers at the position. In fact, Jones has averaged 18.1 fantasy PPG, which makes him RB7 heading into Week 5.
The volume is there, as Jones has at least 16 touches in three of four games played -- including 26 in each of his the past two -- and he's totaled 16 receptions on the season. He's always had dual-threat ability. Sure, there's a chance Jones and this offense take a step back. I get it. And the Vikings do have to face a tough Jets defense in Week 5. Nothing easy there. But if you drafted Jones, who had an overall ADP of 63, you got a steal based on his early-season production.
Najee Harris' limited ceiling
In 12-team leagues, Harris is a fantasy starter. He's the clear lead back for the Steelers, and he has averaged 17 carries a game. Plus, he's has seen a recent bump in receiving usage, catching eight passes over the past two games.
However, Harris hasn't found much daylight as a runner, averaging only 3.1 YPC, and he's produced just five rushes of 10-plus yards. That's why he needs scoring opportunities on low red zone carries to boost his fantasy value. One problem: Justin Fields is the Steelers' quarterback.
Harris has just three goal-to-go carries, and only one inside the 5-yard line. Need more there. In comparison, Fields has six goal-to-go carries, with three inside the 5-yard line. Is there a different narrative for Harris if Russell Wilson is starting at quarterback in Pittsburgh? For sure. But as long as Fields remains the starter, which seems pretty set right now, Harris will have to cash in on his limited scoring opportunities as a TD-dependent player.
DK Metcalf's rising production
Metcalf was on my summer draft board as a solid WR2. I looked at the big-play ability. The red zone targets. The straight-line speed and power in the route tree works, too. He can play through contact at all three levels of the field.
Through four weeks, however, we need to talk about Metcalf as a matchup-based WR1 given his numbers and the play of Seahawks QB Geno Smith.
After a slow start in Week 1, against a legit Denver defense, Metcalf has now logged three straight games with 100-plus yards receiving, and he has averaged 21.6 PPG during that stretch. Metcalf also has at least 12 targets in two of those three games.
While I would like to see more end zone targets for Metcalf (only one this season), Smith is reading it out fast from the pocket and throwing the ball as well as anyone in the league right now. That creates even more upside for Metcalf as he heads into the Week 5 home game versus the Giants, where he'll be a mid-to-lower-tier WR1 in my ranks.
Brian Robinson Jr.'s emerging presence
Robinson posted his best numbers of the season in the Week 4 win over the Cardinals, scoring 20.3 points, and he's one of the most decisive runners I've watched this season. One cut and go, with the pop in his pads to average 2.5 yards after first contact.
Plus, with eight goal-to-go carries, which includes four inside the 5-yard line, Robinson is seeing scoring opportunities in a Commanders offense that is thriving with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Now, you shouldn't expect big numbers from Robinson as a receiver. He's a screen and checkdown target who has eight catches on the season, but I'm OK with that since Robinson has seen at least 16 carries in each of the past three games and he has three red zone rushing TDs on his season résumé. It's time to move Robinson up, if you haven't done so already. He's a solid RB2.
Keep Tucker Kraft on the fantasy radar
In the Packers' Week 4 loss to the Vikings, Kraft had 17.3 fantasy points after catching six of eight targets for 53 yards and a score. Those were season-high numbers for Kraft, and the tape was really good, too. Kraft can press vertically. Run after the catch. And he has the big-body frame to work the middle of the field. But we also have to look at the game script in that one, as quarterback Jordan Love attempted 52 passes. That happens when you fall behind 28-0.
But it was Kraft who was featured at tight end over teammate Luke Musgrave. Kraft ran 44 routes in the game compared to Musgrave's 14. For the season, Kraft has 92 total routes run to Musgrave's 39. While I want to see a little bit more from Musgrave this week against the Rams, it's clear Kraft is the Packers' tight end to keep on the fantasy radar moving forward.