Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Jayden Daniels ends up the top fantasy QB
The Washington rookie is off to an historic start to his NFL career, completing a record (through four games) 82.1% of his passes, but he is also averaging 55 rushing yards per game with more rushing touchdowns (4) than passing ones (3).
Two reasons why we can expect Daniels to continue performing at such a high level: Washington's new, successful offensive approach -- myriad low-risk plays, running the ball with potential RB1 Brian Robinson Jr. -- and by looking at the team's schedule. The Baltimore Ravens have already faced three of last season's playoff teams (Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo), but Baltimore has a first-place schedule after winning 13 games in the 2023 season. The team still has to face the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Texans, along with playing six games against the other three strong AFC North squads. It is challenging, but we expect Jackson to continue thriving.
The mature (more than many expected) Daniels faces three more AFC North teams (already beat the Cincinnati Bengals), but we will expect great things when he plays his six NFC East games. Just look at this mess of an underachieving division, not including the Commanders. The Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants not only look anything like defensive juggernauts, but they are among the worst defenses so far. In fact, the Cowboys and Eagles are two of seven teams allowing at least 350 total yards and 24 points per game. The Commanders don't have a strong defense either, but Washington's games figure to be high-scoring ones, and we like that in fantasy.
Don't be surprised if ... the Buccaneers deliver two WR1 options
Yeah, more Mike Evans love from me, but doesn't he deserve it? Evans has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his 10 NFL seasons, and he finished as a top-10 wide receiver in seven of them. Despite disappointing numbers in Weeks 2 and 3, Evans is right there in the race to earn WR1 honors yet again. We expect greatness from Evans, and while Baker Mayfield may not be a future Hall of Famer and winner of myriad Super Bowls, this current version is certainly more than competent, and he has never been more efficient, accurate and quicker to release his passes. Just ask the Eagles from Sunday.
That other Tampa Bay WR, veteran Chris Godwin, has finished as a WR1 option in only one of his seven NFL seasons. He enters Week 5 as the No. 5 WR scorer, averaging more than 80 receiving yards per game and 9.5 yards per target, his highest since the 2020 campaign. Godwin scored 10 touchdowns over the previous three seasons, falling short of WR1 status, and fantasy managers presumed his skillset was the issue. Godwin is now on pace for his first double-digit touchdown season and far more than 1,000 receiving yards, a mark he barely squeaked by the last two seasons. Mayfield -- and Tom Brady before him -- supported this pair of 1,000-yard fellows the last three seasons, but now Godwin is scoring touchdowns, too. It all looks legit in Tampa Bay.
You may be wondering, is there any other team that can support a pair of WR1 options this season? The San Francisco 49ers came close last season with Deebo Samuel Sr. and Brandon Aiyuk. Perhaps Jauan Jennings complicates things. The Eagles were not far off with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but now injuries pose a challenge. The Texans may be an obvious one, as star Nico Collins paces for a cool 2,000 yards and Stefon Diggs has been to WR1 territory before, obviously. Keep an eye on the Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions here.
Seattle QB Geno Smith looks far more like the 2022 version (4,282 passing yards) than the 2023 one (3,624 yards, much inefficiency). We know DK Metcalf is awesome, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba feels on the verge of a major breakout. Minnesota surprise Sam Darnold is legit with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as targets. Jameson Williams is a breakout choice for the Lions, and he can thrive with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Don't be surprised if ... the top-drafted rookie RBs don't help us
It seems like a bad sign for the rookie running back class that two of the top five players in rushing yards through four games are ... quarterbacks (Daniels and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix), and another is the undrafted Carson Steele. The Buccaneers' Bucky Irving and Jets' Braelon Allen (breakout coming) are on the verge of bigger workloads, but the crew of third- and fourth-round choices are showing up on ESPN's most dropped list, and for good reason. Arizona's Trey Benson, the Rams' Blake Corum, the Packers' MarShawn Lloyd, Miami's Jaylen Wright and Buffalo's Ray Davis are either not producing or are not healthy. Either way, they aren't helping.
With October arriving, bye weeks start this week (no Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers), and it becomes tougher to roster running backs and wide receivers that aren't seeing volume or seeing the field at all. Corum, a star at Michigan, was pick No. 83 in the NFL draft, behind only Carolina's Jonathan Brooks and Benson at running back. Corum saw eight rushing attempts in a Week 2 blowout loss in Arizona, and that was it. His other snaps have come on special teams. Kyren Williams boasts 80% of the Rams' rushing attempts from running backs. There is no sharing here, at all.
Brooks remains likely to eventually produce numbers for the Panthers and fantasy managers, but this is far from assured. The Texas product tore his ACL last November, and the Panthers have a solid fill-in, as Chuba Hubbard has averaged 5.4 yards per tote and is on pace for 1,000 rushing yards. Why rush Brooks? Perhaps Hubbard is a Cowboy by the trade deadline, but if you need the bench spot -- assuming your IR spot is filled -- in the next few weeks, you may have to move on from Brooks. He probably does not debut with Carolina for another month, at least.
Don't be surprised if ... we have a new, top weekly TE each week
A strange season at tight end continued in Week 4, as for the fourth consecutive week, there was a new name scoring the most PPR points. For the second time, it was a name most people would not expect. To recap, the Ravens' Isaiah Likely won Week 1, then it was the 49ers' George Kittle, Eagles' Dallas Goedert, and this past week, the Packers' Tucker Kraft, rostered in 3.3% of ESPN standard leagues, scored 17.3 PPR points. Because, of course he did.
At some point, we should expect Chiefs star -- yes, still a star! -- Travis Kelce to score the most points, and Raiders rookie Brock Bowers and Cowboys veteran Jake Ferguson are reasonable choices to do so as well. How about Steelers veteran Pat Freiermuth, incredibly the lone tight end to achieve the low bar of four receptions in each game? Saints hybrid Taysom Hill scored two touchdowns in under 17 minutes on Sunday, then left with a rib injury. He is a candidate, when healthy. It is mass chaos at tight end.
It is getting difficult to find 10 tight ends worthy of the top 10, either for a given week or for the rest of the season, so take some chances. Play matchups. One would think the worst teams/defenses are the proper streamers, but the Chiefs and Ravens have been notably poor against tight ends so far, permitting the most PPR points to the position, though that may be misleading. Likely tore up the Chiefs in the season opener but has done little since. We are looking for 18 different tight ends to win a week. Let's make this happen, fellows. In a strange season, it feels like Jaguars backup Brenton Strange is a shoo-in.