With the end of September approaching and offensive production down across the NFL, fantasy football managers have real concerns and questions about their lineups.
Trust me, I'm thinking the same about my home league squad, Sweet Chin Music. We're 1-2 to start the year. Not great. Sure, like many other managers, my team is dealing with brutal injuries to high draft picks at running back and wide receiver. But I also have players in my lineup who simply aren't producing.
So, is there still time to show patience with those players registering low-level numbers, or do we need to hit the panic button? Today, we'll look at 13 players and decide how to act moving forward, because we all need a win this week.
Show patience with these players
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Through three weeks, Kelce has seen only 12 targets and he's yet to post more than 7.0 fantasy points in a game. That's rough. However, Kelce has run more than 24 routes in every game, and the tape tells us there have been opportunities for Patrick Mahomes to target his tight end. It's there. Yes, opposing defenses will rotate coverages to Kelce and dedicate defenders to limiting his ability to uncover. I get it. But I also trust what I'm seeing in terms of how Kelce is being deployed, and the answers that Andy Reid can draw up to counter defensive game plans. Kelce stays in my lineup for the Chiefs' Week 4 game versus the Chargers.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Wilson has averaged just 12.2 fantasy PPG. You expected more, right? I did, too. Despite the lower numbers, I still see positives for Wilson. Through three games, Wilson has seen 26 targets (on 95 routes run). The volume is there. And despite his average depth of target sitting at 9.0, which meshes with the Jets' West Coast pass game, Wilson has a vertical route rate of 33.7%. So, there are vertical throws to be made in this game plan with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Plus, Wilson did snag his first touchdown of the season in the Week 3 win over the Patriots. While the tough matchup versus the Broncos and Pat Surtain II -- the best cover corner in the league -- doesn't point to breakout numbers for Wilson this week, the arrow is pointing up as the season progresses.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickens will remain a flex player for me despite a Steelers offensive game plan that can be somewhat archaic at times. Mike Tomlin's team is going to run the ball. Pickens, however, has logged two games with double-digit fantasy production and more than 20 routes run, plus he has three explosive-play receptions on the season. Sure, I want Pickens to see more looks in scoring position (only one end zone target), and he could really get a boost if the throwing volume remains up with Justin Fields (32 attempts in Week 3). But I know having Pickens in the lineup creates upside due to his ability to stretch the defense, which pairs with the arm talent of Fields.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
Dell put together his best game of the season in Week 3, scoring 11.2 points by catching five of six targets for 62 yards. However, Dell was still the third option behind Stefon Diggs (12 targets) and Nico Collins (10) and while I don't see that really changing, there's still value here for Dell. Even with the lower target volume, Dell can be schemed as a third-level/isolation option for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Just go back to the dropped ball on the seam throw versus the Bears in Week 2. That was six points. Plus, he has seen multiple carries in two of three games thus far, so the Texans are scheming opportunities to get the ball in Dell's hands. He's dealing with a couple injuries heading into this week's meeting with the Jaguars, but if he's able to go, he can be used as a deeper league flex. He has the potential to climb in the rankings as the season plays out.
Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, WRs, Green Bay Packers
If you roster Reed or Watson, the anticipated return of Jordan Love (knee) is the story here. Look, I thought Matt LaFleur did an outstanding job of scripting a game plan for backup quarterback Malik Willis the past two weeks. That's big-time coaching. But it also limited the production for the Packers' wide receivers, as Reed totaled 17.5 points during that stretch and Watson logged only 8.7 after being shutout in Week 2. The Packers do have a tough Week 4 matchup versus a Vikings defense that is creating conflict for opposing quarterbacks, but if Love is back under center, the pass game opens up, which makes Reed a flex option and Watson a better fit in deeper leagues.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk's 7.6 PPG does create some concern, and I'm not really surprised at his slow start given that he missed camp. You need to practice in August. It's that simple. But Aiyuk is seeing consistent volume through the first three weeks of season. On 89 routes run, Aiyuk has 20 targets, including 10 last week versus the Rams. He's also seen three end zone targets. While it was Jauan Jennings, stepping in for the injured Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring), who posted a ridiculous 45.5 points on the L.A. defense, Aiuyk is still the 49ers wide receiver I want in my lineup. It's about the route-running and the overall scheme fit with Kyle Shanahan. I'll play Aiyuk as a fringe WR1 this week against the Patriots.
Time to hit the panic button
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you drafted White, I'm pretty sure you saw him as pass-catching threat who could give you enough production on the ground to post some RB1 weeks. And while White has logged two games with five or more receptions, he's averaged only 2.1 yards per carry. Not good. Plus, he now has competition for touches in the Tampa Bay backfield from rookie Bucky Irving, and this guy can scoot. Irving has averaged 6.2 yards per carry, and he just saw a season-high 12 touches in the Week 3 game versus the Broncos. I would plan for a backfield split here, and that's why I bumped White down to the flex range this week, where he might stay for a while.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews ran just three routes last week versus the Cowboys, but that was an old-school Ravens game plan. Lamar Jackson attempted just 15 passes and Derrick Henry's name was at the top of the call sheet. However, in Weeks 1 and 2, Andrews totaled just six receptions on 52 routes run. The Ravens' usage of Isaiah Likely (49 routes run this season) is playing a role here, plus the ball simply isn't going to Andrews, despite his route deployment. Now, I wouldn't expect managers to trade Andrews this early in the season. Can't do it. He's too talented, and we've seen the past production. High-level stuff. Plus, the fantasy landscape at the tight end position is pretty bare. But I do have Andrews ranked outside my top 10 tight ends this week for the home game versus the Bills.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
With his frame and route-running ability, Pittman is at his best when working the underneath and secondary levels of the field. But he needs volume and a quarterback who can deliver the ball with consistent timing and location. While Pittman has seen a team-high 21 targets this season, he has only 11 receptions, and Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has struggled to throw the ball efficiently. In fact, Richardson's completion percentage (49.8%) ranks last in the league and he has yet to register 215 yards passing in a game. This Colts pass game really needs a jump-start for Pittman to start producing viable numbers. It's likely not going to happen Sunday against a tough Steelers defense, though. That's why I bumped him down to the WR3 range.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
This Bears run game is a really tough watch right now. As always, it starts up front and I'm not seeing nearly enough movement from this offensive line. It gets stonewalled at times. Plus, Swift is starting to press as a runner, looking to bounce or bend the ball. After three games, Swift has averaged only 1.8 YPC, while he has only one rush of 10 or more yards. Even more concerning is his lack of usage in the pass game (six receptions, 10 yards), because he has the skills to produce on backfield releases. With those low-level numbers, plus the potential emergence of Roschon Johnson in the backfield (12 touches in Week 3), Swift's value is rapidly declining. If you want to trade him, the time is now, even at lower rate of return.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
This one surprises me, because Williams, now two seasons removed from an ACL injury, looked explosive on the preseason tape. Decisive with the ball and possessing downhill juice. But three weeks into the regular season, Williams has yet to record a rush of at least 10 yards, and he has averaged 2.2 YPC. Plus, he's seeing competition for carries in Denver from Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie. It was Badie who led the Broncos' rushing attack in Week 3 versus the Buccaneers (nine carries, 70 yards). While Williams did see two carries inside the 5-yard line last week, in addition to securing nine receptions over the past two games, this is shaping up to be a backfield rotation in Denver. And that makes Williams a starter in deeper leagues only for this week's game against the Jets.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
After scoring only 9.4 fantasy points in Monday night's blowout loss to the Bills, Lawrence has now averaged a pedestrian 11.3 PPG. Sure, Lawrence wasn't drafted to be a starter in 10-team leagues, but I saw value -- and potential upside -- for him in superflex formats. The numbers aren't saying that, though, as Lawrence has posted more than 200 yards passing in only one game, and he hasn't been accurate with the football, completing just 52.8% of his throws (31st in the league). What's worse, Lawrence's poor level of play, which does impact offensive tempo, has limited the opportunities for running back Travis Etienne Jr. while also drastically lowering the fantasy value of his wide receivers. At this point, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is the only Jags wide receiver I would potentially play in the lineup.