Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if... Saquon Barkley is fantasy's top player
Barkley has keyed the Philadelphia Eagles' two wins, scoring 33 PPR points in Weeks 1 and 3, and he added 17.6 in Week 2 (although he had a brutal drop late in the game), as he plays the signature role Christian McCaffrey did for last season's San Francisco 49ers. Plenty has gone wrong for the Eagles (quarterback, injuries, coaching, run defense), but not with Barkley. One can argue that no other offensive player is as important to his team, and in the real-life MVP discussion -- non-quarterback section, of course -- Barkley now leads the way.
Barkley playing great is hardly a surprise, though. The Eagles are more talented -- by any relevant measure -- than the recent New York Giants teams he toiled for, and excellent performance was a given. What wasn't clear, of course, reminds us of McCaffrey: Can Barkley stay healthy with this high volume? McCaffrey isn't healthy. Both players have a track record of missing games, but then again, Barkley has played in 13 or more games in five of his six seasons. He was fourth in the league in rushing attempts in 2022, playing in 16 of 17 games. He was healthy then and for much of last season, averaging 17.6 carries.
McCaffrey averaged 24.5 PPR points last season, tops in the league (he missed one game). Barkley enters Week 4 averaging 28.1 PPR points. He cannot sustain that level, and perhaps he doesn't play in every game. Still, he's performing even better than expected while suddenly erratic QB Jalen Hurts turns the football over, the offense deals with injuries to the wide receivers and the line, and we all witness some curious playcalling. It isn't like McCaffrey last season in that respect, but if you want last year's McCaffrey for fantasy, this is the fellow.
Don't be surprised if... Jauan Jennings remains relevant
Speaking of the 49ers, what fifth-year WR Jennings achieved Sunday, catching 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns, arguably the best game for a San Francisco wide receiver since Terrell Owens proudly roamed for the franchise, is quite a trick. Jennings is no rookie, nor was he a top draft pick. He is 27, a seventh-round pick in 2020. The 49ers previously haven't given him great opportunity for good reason. Just look at the depth chart. Deebo Samuel Sr. is good. Brandon Aiyuk is good. McCaffrey and TE George Kittle catch passes, too.
Why is this season going to be different? Perhaps Jennings heads back to relative obscurity once Samuel and Kittle return to health, but why wouldn't Kyle Shanahan utilize this big body with these skills? Samuel should miss a few more games and, even if he doesn't, one would think how Jennings performed Sunday will resonate for a team that has lost consecutive games.
Aiyuk hasn't reached 50 receiving yards in a game through three weeks. We can't worry about him yet, but it is reasonable to expect Jennings to finally see a decent target share -- a three-headed WR monster, perhaps -- for a while. Perhaps no 49ers WR reaches 1,000 receiving yards, but three fellows will approach the number. Jennings is already 27.6% of the way there with his 276 receiving yards.
One more 49ers thing, and it is not good: Don't be surprised if we don't see McCaffrey play until at least half this season is over. Even then it's hardly a guarantee, as he seeks medical advice in Germany for his Achilles tendinitis. It's always something, isn't it? Regardless, trading for the fellow we expected to be fantasy's top player is quite precarious.
Don't be surprised if... Anthony Richardson is bound for the bench
What?!? Richardson wasn't just a top-five quarterback in myriad average live drafts, he went ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Hurts in plenty of them. Fantasy managers drooled at his upside after he showed glimpses of super stardom in his four games as a rookie. Most people figured Richardson "couldn't miss" as a statistical monster, combining incredible and punishing running ability with a strong arm. The lone concern was durability. Richardson's style of play seems to invite injury. Could he stay healthy?
After a seemingly solid opener and two highly disappointing games in which he has completed fewer than 50% of his passes -- and his inaccuracy has hardly come just on deep throws -- we must question this situation. Richardson has looked reluctant to take off running, too.
OK, this isn't "Bryce Young with the Carolina Panthers" awful, and the Indianapolis Colts did win Sunday, but this is not good. When Richardson isn't showing off his arm with jaw-dropping deep passes, he looks overwhelmed. He has thrown six interceptions and fumbled twice, and the Steelers are up in Week 4.
It's early, but the Colts seem to boast a sterling defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers do as well, and they have turned their offense over to a veteran running quarterback and demanded he take care of the football. Justin Fields, somehow, is doing precisely that. Richardson surely is not.
It seems improbable that the Colts would sit Richardson so that Joe Flacco can direct the offense, but then again, Flacco was last season's Comeback Player of the Year with the Cleveland Browns, and he started a playoff game. He is here for a reason. I'm just sayin' this might get interesting. Trading for Richardson is also quite precarious.
Don't be surprised if... Bucky Irving rushes for 1,000 yards
This one seems so obvious, that Irving is the better bet to handle the higher volume in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield, that it's a bit surprising the shift hasn't happened yet. The fast, shifty Irving averages 6.2 yards per rush, and he certainly handled pass-catching duties in college.
This might not be a timeshare with struggling Rachaad White at all. Irving might just take over this starting role and, well, run with it. White is averaging 2.1 yards per rush, with no long runs, few broken tackles. Forget about last season, when White was fantasy's No. 4 running back. That was volume and opportunity. We loved it, but it's Week 4 now. White isn't playable in fantasy.
The Buccaneers chose Irving in the fourth round for a reason. He's good. He sure looks better than White. Perhaps the Buccaneers deny the obvious this week against the Eagles. Perhaps not. Either way, Irving must be rostered in more leagues. We await the debut of Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks, but Irving seems to be the best bet among first year running backs to thrive. Most of the others (Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum, MarShawn Lloyd, Jaylen Wright) haven't yet even received a chance.
Don't be surprised if... no tight end approaches 200 fantasy points
OK, so we need some context here, because nobody thinks about total season points as we all tend to focus on the week-to-week numbers. Last season, in order, Sam LaPorta (Lions), Evan Engram (Jaguars), Travis Kelce (Chiefs), T.J. Hockenson (Vikings), Kittle (49ers) and David Njoku (Browns) all surpassed 200 ESPN PPR points.
All of those guys averaged (along with Mark Andrews of the Ravens) at least 12.6 PPR points, with Kelce and Hockenson at 14.6 PPR points. This season? Well, don't ask. Kittle is the only one in this crew who has averaged more than 8.4 PPR points, and he missed Week 3 due to a hamstring injury.
There isn't much a fantasy manager can -- or should -- do about this situation. You can't/shouldn't drop LaPorta, Kelce or Engram. Hockenson may debut in Week 7. You should be stashing him and the others -- not adding Mike Gesicki or Zach Ertz. Think big picture.
Look, Dallas Goedert just had the game of his life, because Hurts had nowhere else to throw the football. If no obvious tight ends are thriving, then we are all in the same, underwhelming situation with nobody enjoying consistent TE production. Be patient and hope the top tight ends all return to health and statistical proficiency -- or at least just the one on your roster.