Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 18, which kicked off Saturday with the Steelers at the Ravens.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals -7
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase
The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and are expected to rest key players for all or most of this meaningless game. Joe Flacco will not play and Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper and David Njoku figure to see little to no playing time and will be risky fantasy plays. Jeff Driskel will start at quarterback and Pierre Strong Jr., Cedric Tillman, David Bell, James Proche II, Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins are likely to see extended work. The Bengals have been eliminated and should treat this as a normal game.
Over/Under: 40.4 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 61% (7th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions -3.5
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Sam LaPorta
Both of these teams have something on the line this week, as the Vikings have a long shot chance at a wild-card berth and the Lions can potentially move from the No. 3 to the No. 2 seed with a win (if the Eagles and Cowboys both lose). That's a long shot, but Dan Campbell indicated the starters will play as usual, so play your Lions with confidence. The same goes for the Vikings, though note that Ty Chandler has a brutal matchup against a Detroit defense that has allowed the fewest RB yards and fantasy points. Johnny Mundt was, as expected, the T.J. Hockenson replacement and posted a solid 4-39-1 receiving line on seven targets last week. He's a streaming option.
Over/Under: 45.4 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 80% (2nd highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars -5 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Evan Engram
The Jaguars will be highly motivated to win this game, as a victory clinches the AFC South and a home game in the playoffs, whereas a loss ends their season. Christian Kirk is a candidate to return from IR and, considering the high stakes, he'd likely be a full go in a plus-matchup, which would put him on the WR3/flex radar. The Titans are eliminated and will treat this like a normal game. Don't be surprised if Henry gets extra run in what may be his final game with the Titans.
Over/Under: 40.5 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 51% (14th highest)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots -2
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Ezekiel Elliott, Garrett Wilson
Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention, so expect things to be business as usual. DeMario Douglas has yet to score an NFL touchdown, but he is averaging 6.9 targets and 10.1 fantasy PPG in his eight games since being promoted to a larger role in Week 7. Douglas has at least five touches in seven of those eight outings. He primarily works from the slot and won't see a ton of Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed, so he's a viable flex option.
Over/Under: 24.9 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 57% (8th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints -3
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave
Both of these teams are battling for a playoff spot and/or the NFC South division title, so expect all healthy players to be a full go. Kamara (ankle) is in doubt after going down on his 23rd snap Sunday. With Kamara sidelined, Jamaal Williams soaked up 19 carries and four targets while Taysom Hill added two carries and two targets. If Kamara is sidelined, Williams would make for a flex option against a tough Atlanta run defense that has allowed a league-low three RB rushing scores.
Over/Under: 39.4 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 62% (6th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
The Buccaneers clinch the NFC South with a win and miss the playoffs with a loss, so they'll be highly motivated. Baker Mayfield has been a viable streamer at times and has two-plus passing scores in four straight games, but this is a tough matchup. Carolina has allowed the fewest passing yards and second-fewest QB fantasy points, with only three reaching 17 points against them. Mayfield was limited to 9.9 points (his second-lowest total of the season) when these teams met in Week 13. Consider aiming higher for a Week 18 streamer. Carolina, by the way, has been eliminated and will treat this as a normal game.
Over/Under: 38.5 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 75% (3rd highest)
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -3
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Aaron Jones, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet
The Packers are battling for a wild-card berth, so all healthy players will be a full go. We'll need to monitor the statuses of Christian Watson (hamstring), Jayden Reed (chest) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest), who were all out in Week 17 (or left that game due to injury). Chicago has been eliminated and will look to play spoiler. Kmet is a major rebound candidate after being held without a target on 13 snaps while clearly not at full health last week. Kmet had produced 11-plus fantasy points in four straight games prior to the dud. Khalil Herbert (20-plus touches, 120-plus yards and a score in two straight games) will be a fine flex play assuming D'Onta Foreman remains a healthy scratch.
Over/Under: 44.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 56% (10th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders -3
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton
Both teams have been eliminated, so expect "business as usual" in the season finale. If Jacobs (quad) remains out, Zamir White will leap back into the RB2 mix. White has produced 20-plus touches, 85-plus yards and 14.5-plus fantasy points in each of the three games without Jacobs. He'd be in a good spot against Denver's shaky run defense.
Over/Under: 36.3 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 56% (9th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert
The Eagles have clinched a playoff spot, and the only way they won't be the No. 5 seed is if they win and the Cowboys lose. It's possible some key players don't play the full game, but any resting of players would likely come late in the game if the scoreboard shows heavily favored Dallas is well ahead of Washington. That means some additional risk for the likes of Hurts, Swift, Brown, DeVonta Smith (who may not play anyway due to an ankle injury) and Goedert, though they'd likely do plenty of damage in the first three quarters or so. You can feel reasonably comfortable with them in your lineup against New York's struggling defense. The Giants have been eliminated, so they'll treat this as a normal divisional game.
Over/Under: 43 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 70% (4th highest)
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Trey McBride
The Seahawks are competing for a wild-card berth, so they'll be a full go. Smith has produced 16.9-plus fantasy points in three straight games and should be in lineups for an elite matchup against an Arizona defense that has allowed the third-most passing scores (30) and the fifth-most QB fantasy points. Arizona was eliminated a while back, but, as we saw in last week's upset in Philadelphia, the Cardinals still have plenty of fight in them.
Over/Under: 50.4 (Highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 51% (16th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers -3.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Keenan Allen
The Chiefs are locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed and are expected to rest key players. Patrick Mahomes will not play and Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce may not play much, if at all. Expect significant usage for the likes of Blaine Gabbert (who will start at quarterback), La'Mical Perine, Justyn Ross, Richie James and Noah Gray. Expect business as usual for the eliminated Chargers. Allen and Joshua Palmer were both out last week, which allowed Alex Erickson, Quentin Johnston and Keelan Doss to handle the bulk of the WR reps. Johnston should only be considered a flex option if Kansas City does rest starters and Allen/Palmer remain out.
Over/Under: 39.6 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 54% (11th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers -4
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: None
The 49ers are locked into the top seed in the NFC and are likely to limit or deactivate several key players. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey have already been ruled out and the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle may not see much work, if any. Sam Darnold, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Ronnie Bell and perhaps rookie Brayden Willis will be among those seeing extended action. The Rams are locked into the playoffs and will either be the No. 6 or 7 seed. Matthew Stafford will not play (Carson Wentz will start) and it's very likely that the likes of Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Higbee will be out or limited. Monitor reports on their status throughout the week.
Over/Under: 42.6 (8th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 71% (3rd highest)
Dallas Cowboys -13 @ Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Jake Ferguson
The Cowboys need a win to lock down the No. 2 seed and NFC East title, so expect them to be a full go. Washington has been eliminated and will be looking to play spoiler against their divisional rivals. Brian Robinson Jr. returned from injury last week and produced 76 yards on 13 touches. Robinson has eight touchdowns in 14 games, but he's been boom/bust, registering 20-plus fantasy points three times, but falling short of 12 points in eight games.
Over/Under: 46.1 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 84% (Highest)
Buffalo Bills -3 @ Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle
This game will decide the AFC East champion and, while Miami has clinched a playoff berth, Buffalo could miss the playoffs with a loss. Needless to say, both teams will be a full go. With Mostert sidelined last week, De'Von Achane led the Miami backfield with 14 carries and five targets on 32 snaps (48%). He produced 137 yards and a score on 18 touches. Jeff Wilson Jr. matched Achane's snap count, but he was limited to 34 yards on three carries and four targets. If Mostert returns, he should be in lineups and Achane will be a viable flex. If Mostert sits, Achane leaps into the RB1/2 mix and Wilson will be an uninspiring flex.
Over/Under: 48.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Bills 52% (13th highest)