The inconsistent Buffalo Bills impressively won consecutive games over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, and while they are not currently in an AFC playoff position, things are looking good if they continue to play well. QB Josh Allen enters Week 16 second in the league in fantasy points, behind only San Francisco 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey, while RB James Cook has blossomed in his second season, with the two best fantasy games of his career coming in the past two weeks, as he scored a combined 61.2 PPR points.
Three other Bills known for catching passes, however, are also rostered in at least 75% of ESPN standard leagues, and the fantasy managers who rely on WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Gabe Davis have not enjoyed the past fortnight nearly as much. Diggs is the highlighted player here, of course, as he was a first-round selection in nearly every fantasy draft. Even today, only six wide receivers enter Week 16 having scored more PPR points than him this season.
The problem is,
Allen and Cook were the lone Bills to reach double digit PPR points in the Week 14 win over the Chiefs, with the quarterback rushing for a touchdown and the running back catching 83 yards worth of passes, easily leading the team. He also caught Allen's lone touchdown pass. Diggs caught only four of 11 targets in that game, and he showed his frustration. Davis caught as many passes as you and me that day. Things barely changed in the blowout win over Dallas last week. Allen completed only seven passes with Cook hauling in the lone touchdown.
Things have to change this Saturday night for a road tilt against the noncontending, short-handed Chargers, as only two defenses permit more fantasy points to wide receivers. Diggs started his season by scoring double-digit PPR points in nine consecutive games. Fantasy managers never had to consider his place in lineups. Diggs has reached double digits in only one of the past five games, falling short of 50 receiving yards in four of them. His target share is down, as Cook is the one who has caught touchdown passes in three of four games.
Kincaid, the rookie first-round pick from Utah, scored double-digit PPR points in five consecutive games starting in Week 7, partially coinciding with the Dawson Knox injury, but Kincaid has not had a big game since. He saw only two targets against the Cowboys, catching nary a pass. He is dealing with a shoulder injury, and the veteran Knox has returned to the lineup. Kincaid was a clear top-10 fantasy tight end a month ago. Things look mighty different today.
Davis, the big-play option who averaged 17.4 yards per reception a season ago (second in the NFL to Miami's Jaylen Waddle among qualified WRs), is down to 15.3 yards per catch this season, and he hasn't caught a pass in three of the past four games. His 22.5 PPR points on 12 targets against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 looks aberrant for the past two months. Davis has likely played himself out of fantasy consideration but, then again, the Chargers seem unlikely to stop this passing game and Davis should feast on a defense such as this one. The question is who will Allen target?
Diggs remains a must-play, even as his star has fallen recently and ESPN Fantasy cumulatively ranks him only at No. 10 at wide receiver, but Kincaid is outside TE1 range and Davis is barely ranked at all. The Bills should have fun with the Chargers' defense, but if it is merely Allen and Cook having all the statistical fun, surely fantasy managers will not be pleased.
Quarterbacks on the Hot Seat
In our weekly Tua Tagovailoa update in this space, we notice the Miami Dolphins QB has reached the low total of 13 PPR points in one of four games. The Cowboys play good defense in home games. This game is in Miami. Tagovailoa is ranked No. 10, but he may not deserve it. He's No. 14 in QB scoring this season.
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray scored rushing touchdowns in his first three games. He averaged 20 PPR points. He has scored 25 PPR points over the past two games, failing to rush for a score. The Arizona passing game is not flourishing. It should against the Chicago Bears, but fantasy managers should be wary.
The Seattle Seahawks expect Geno Smith to return from a groin injury against the Tennessee Titans, and the worry here would be completing the game, either because of injury or performance. After all, backup Drew Lock beat the Eagles on Monday. He is ready. Smith has not played well this season after finishing as the No. 5 QB last year.
Running backs on the Hot Seat
Titans star Derrick Henry is No. 10 in PPR season scoring at running back, but the path to getting there has been anything but consistent. Henry scored 5 PPR points in Week 15, and he scored similarly in Weeks 11 and 12. In between, Henry ripped off an average of 21 PPR points over three games. These are the playoffs. We need to know big numbers are coming against the Seahawks.
The Chargers' Austin Ekeler is similar to Henry in that they were high draft picks, there is little statistical consistency here, and their teams are not playoff-bound. The Chargers got embarrassed by the Raiders last week. Ekeler had nine touches. Will things improve against the Bills? This is an RB2, maybe.
Wide receivers on the Hot Seat
Jacksonville Jaguars star Calvin Ridley hasn't been a star lately, with three consecutive single-digit PPR performances. He hasn't stepped up with Christian Kirk gone. Ridley at Tampa Bay feels like a 20-point PPR game waiting to happen. With this fellow, who knows?
Atlanta Falcons star Drake London also hasn't starred much lately. He went off for 29.2 PPR points in Week 14. He caught three passes for 32 yards and scored 6.2 PPR points in the games before and after. We crave consistency. The Falcons, with endless quarterback changes, offer little of it.
Tennessee Titans veteran DeAndre Hopkins scored 4.1 PPR points last week, with two catches on nine targets. He should top that scoring number against the Seahawks, but relying on his rookie QB Will Levis feels perilous.