Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both sides of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
As we head into the second week of the fantasy playoffs, we'll start with a quarterback who can be schemed up to win a defined coverage matchup Sunday. Plus, I have two flex targets below with opportunities to produce positive numbers for your lineup. As always, we will discuss three players I have questions on, along with three more to put on your radar in dynasty formats.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Players to upgrade in Week 16
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa hasn't produced more than 20 fantasy points in a game since back in Week 8, but I'm taking the coverage matchup versus Dallas on Sunday, along with Mike McDaniel's ability to scheme for his quarterback. Remember, the Cowboys play man coverage on a league-high 64.9% of opponent dropbacks. And Tagovailoa has registered a QBR of 84.0 -- with 16 touchdown passes -- versus man coverage this season. With the expectation that Tyreek Hill (ankle) is up and healthy for this game, I expect McDaniel to attack the Cowboys with motion, movement and formation variation to give both Hill and Jaylen Waddle free access off the ball. You can play Tua this week as a lower-tier QB1.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
In an Eagles offense that is looking to establish a more consistent identity after losing three straight, I'm going to focus on the run game. Yes, Swift hasn't produced double-digit fantasy points since Week 11, but he did log 18 carries (and 20 touches) in the Monday night loss to the Seahawks. While we know Jalen Hurts is the goal line runner in Philadelphia, Swift saw four red zone carries against Seattle and he finished with 78 yards rushing. He's a slasher in the Eagles' zone-run schemes, with the vision to bend the ball to daylight. I like Swift here as a flex play for the Week 16 game against the Giants.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Johnson has caught a touchdown pass -- and scored 13 or more fantasy points -- in three straight games, doing so with subpar quarterback play from Mitch Trubisky. Now, I don't see Mason Rudolph, the expected Week 16 starter, as a major upgrade here, but he can provide more poise and pocket management. That's a plus for Johnson ahead of Saturday's matchup with the Bengals. Let's get some more catch-and-run targets for Johnson here -- on accurate throws with good timing. You can start Johnson this week as a solid flex play in the lineup.
Players I have questions about in Week 16
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
I roster Williams in a deeper league, and he'll be in my lineup this week as a flex option. It's really about the volume here, as Williams has seen at least 16 touches in three of his past four games. But I don't love the run-game matchup versus the Patriots, a defense that has surrendered just 53 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, the lowest total in the league. Manage your expectations this week with Williams, who will need to see carries in the low red zone for scoring opportunities and create some production as a receiver, too.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
I still see Murray as a starter in leagues of 12 or more teams. Take his dual-threat traits and the rushing volume, as Murray has at least six carries in four of his five games played this season. And we know he has the second-reaction ability to extend plays and create as a thrower. However, I think his ceiling is a little lower this week, given his need to score rushing touchdowns, plus the matchup versus Chicago. In the two games in which Murray hasn't rushed for a score, he's produced fewer than 14 fantasy points. This Bears defense also has four sacks in back-to-back games, in addition to creating three or more turnovers in four straight. They are really going after the football.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans
With Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud expected to sit out again this week (concussion), I have concerns about Schultz -- and the Houston pass game, for that matter -- versus the Browns. That defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and this also feels like a matchup where Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz dials up a lot of heat to create conflict for backup quarterback Case Keenum. I have Schultz, who has produced fewer than 10 fantasy points in each of his past two games, down in the TE2 ranks for Week 16.
Players to monitor for dynasty formats in Week 16
Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
It's been a true committee approach in the Chicago backfield, as Johnson shares touches with both Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman. However, Foreman is set to be a free agent, while Herbert has not been impressive on the tape this season. Johnson, who has scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his past three games, has the traits to handle downhill volume and catch the ball.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Pierce has seen at least five targets in three of his past four games, and he posted 19 fantasy points in the Week 13 matchup against the Titans. He can win on the boundary and stretch defenses over the top. A better fit in Indianapolis for the arm talent and second-reaction throwing ability of injured quarterback Anthony Richardson, Pierce is a player to keep on the radar in '24 in a more aggressive (and vertical) Colts passing game.
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Tucker has recorded just 11 receptions on the season, but he's averaging 20 yards per catch. Plus, Tucker just dropped 20.7 points -- and two touchdowns -- on the Chargers last week. He's a true burner who can track the ball vertically. There is potential non-PPR upside here if Tucker can develop a larger role in the Raiders' offense next season.