Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars). He's coming off one of the best games of what has been a significant rebound season for him, posting a four-touchdown, 78.9-Total QBR, 29.04-fantasy-point performance against a Green Bay Packers defense that has been one of the position's most favorable matchups over the past five weeks. The Jaguars, however, have been even more fantasy-friendly for quarterbacks during that time, surrendering a 20-plus-point score to each of the past three they have faced, most recently to streaming/fill-in types Jake Browning (Week 13) and Joe Flacco (Week 14).
Others to like: Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions); Tommy DeVito, New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles).
Matchup to avoid: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Chicago Bears). The Bears have been the second-toughest defense against quarterbacks over the past five weeks, thanks in large part to the play of midseason acquisition Montez Sweat. He has brought a new dimension to the team's pass rush, the Bears having totaled six interceptions on 49 pass attempts when the quarterback was pressured during that time. You might think Murray, with his mobility, could nevertheless make plays happen despite being heavily pressured, but he has been only marginally better than league average in those instances over the past five weeks (spanning his healthy games), averaging just 0.31 points per offensive snap (the league average is 0.25).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Indianapolis Colts). Yes, coach Arthur Smith's unpredictable usage of his best offensive asset is maddening and fuels distrust in the player at a critical seasonal stage. That said, Robinson did enjoy touch totals of 23, 19 and 21 during a Week 10-13 span (the Falcons had a Week 11 bye) following similar coaching-related complaints, and the team is now in must-win territory. Robinson couldn't be in a much more obvious needs-20-plus-touches situation, with the Colts' weakness against the run and severely so of late. They've seen a league-most eight different running backs score 10-plus PPR fantasy points against them in the past six weeks, and their 4.9 Adjusted FPTA for the season is third-most in the league.
Others to like: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Washington Commanders); D'Andre Swift, Eagles (vs. Giants).
Matchup to avoid: Ty Chandler/Alexander Mattison, Vikings (vs. Lions). Clarity on Mattison's status (ankle) would certainly help with analyzing this backfield, as Chandler's 81% snap share, 23 rushing attempts and 26 total touches with Mattison absent in Week 15 were all the most by any Vikings running back in a game all season, and they signal a similarly hefty role if Mattison sits again this week. That said, considering he has exceeded 15 carries in a game only 14 times in 75 college plus NFL games, Chandler might not be leaned upon quite as much, regardless. Additionally, the Lions have seen a league-low seven running backs score as many as 10 PPR fantasy points against them this season.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Garrett Wilson, Jets (vs. Commanders). The Jets' quarterbacking situation has certainly held him back from a production standpoint -- the team's 25.2 Total QBR for the season is the league's worst, by the way -- but there's every reason to roll the team's No. 1 receiver out there for this matchup regardless. Opposing WR1s have averaged a league-leading 21.8 PPR fantasy points against the Commanders, with either of the past two they have faced (Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp) exceeding that number. Before last week's four targets, Wilson hadn't seen fewer than seven targets in a game since Week 1, and bear in mind that the Commanders have afforded the position a league-most 2.17 points per target.
Others to like: Chris Olave/Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints (at Los Angeles Rams); Wan'Dale Robinson/Darius Slayton, Giants (at Eagles).
Matchup to avoid: Terry McLaurin, Commanders (at Jets). Across the field, McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, have their work cut out for them. McLaurin is coming off a season-best 26.1 PPR fantasy point performance, but there couldn't be a greater contrast in matchups than between the Rams (bottom-ranked 9.9 Adjusted FPA over the past five weeks), his Week 15 opponent, and Jets (top-ranked minus-14.9). For the season, the Jets have seen only 10 opposing wide receivers score as many as 10 points against them, three fewer than any other defense.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (at San Francisco 49ers). Tight end is a pretty cut-and-dried position at this seasonal stage, with seven clear locked-in weekly options (they comprise the top seven in our rankings), but that still leaves at least three teams in a standard ESPN league mixing and matching the position. Likely is one of the most appealing from outside that group, averaging 6.3 targets and 15.1 PPR fantasy points since Mark Andrews' placement on injured reserve. The 49ers have a strong defensive reputation, but have struggled to contain tight ends of late, surrendering 55.8 PPR fantasy points to them over the past two weeks alone.
Matchup to avoid: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (at Miami Dolphins). He's another one of the more appealing choices from outside the aforementioned locked-in seven, seeing exactly eight targets in each of the past three weeks. Still, the Dolphins have been an above-average defense against tight ends for the season, and they're especially tough against them in the past five weeks, limiting them to a second-least 1.23 PPR fantasy points per target during that time.