Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both side of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
Today, we'll discuss a running back who jumped on the Week 6 tape in an offense where he'll see downhill and perimeter volume. There's a quarterback primed for a bounce-back week, too, and a wide receiver with PPR upside. I'll also highlight three players with question marks -- in tough Week 7 matchups -- and some rookie pass-catchers to monitor over the weekend.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Week 7 upgrades
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Ford had 91 total yards on 19 touches in the Week 6 upset of the 49ers. And the tape really jumped here in the fourth quarter, when Ford had three rushes of 10 yards or more versus that San Francisco front seven. Even with Kareem Hunt seeing carries and operating as the pass-catching back for Cleveland, the Browns' run-game system is a positive for Ford. Perimeter schemes with pullers out in front, and the power concepts that give him daylight to attack inside the tackles. You can go with Ford this week as a solid RB2 versus a Colts defense allowing 23.3 PPG to opposing backs.
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
This is about the target volume for Palmer as the No. 2 in the Chargers' route tree. He has seen at least seven targets in three straight games, with double-digit fantasy production in each. Plus, Palmer logged two end zone targets in the Monday night loss to the Cowboys. With rookie Quentin Johnston still working to adjust to the NFL game, Palmer can continue to operate opposite of Keenan Allen in this LA offense. Run the mid-level routes and find space underneath. I like Palmer this week as a WR3/flex versus the Chiefs.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
I see Smith having a bounce-back week against the Cardinals, in a game where the Seahawks can be much more efficient inside the red zone. Smith has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just one game this season, and this Seahawks team left multiple scoring opportunities on the field in last week's loss to the Bengals. However, the Cardinals have given up nine red zone touchdown passes this season, the fourth most in the league, and they are allowing the fifth-most fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season. With positive matchups on the perimeter for Seahawks wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I like Smith as a lower-tier QB1 in Week 7.
Players I have questions about in Week 7
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Goff has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two straight games, with at least 22 fantasy points in both. The tape is really good, too, on both play-action and dropback throws. Detroit is scheming up opposing defenses in the pass game, but I'm listing Goff in this section because of the matchup against the Ravens' defense. Through six weeks, Baltimore has allowed only four touchdown passes and is No. 2 versus opposing QBs in fantasy at just 9.7 PPG. Yes, you can still start Goff, but I see him more as a fringe QB1/QB2 this week.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Pittman is coming off scoring 19.1 points in the Week 6 loss to the Jags. He saw 14 targets from Gardner Minshew in that game, too. However, with a Week 7 matchup versus a Browns defense that ranks No.1 against opposing wide receivers, I would manage your expectations here. This Cleveland secondary is physical and it challenges wide receivers in man coverage, with a mix of pressure and a front-four rush that creates chaos. This season, the Browns have allowed a league-low 51% completion percentage and only 121.4 passing yards per game. That's why I dropped Pittman down to a lower-tier WR2 this week.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
I'm still waiting on Mattison to have that breakout game. Sure, he's posted double-digit fantasy production in five of six games played and he's logged at least three receptions in four of five, but Mattison has been a volume grinder to this point and has yet to score a rushing TD this season. Yes, you can play Mattison as lower-end RB2 this week -- in a tough matchup versus the 49ers -- but I'm looking for a back with more upside and scoring potential in my lineup.
Players to monitor in Week 7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njigba posted a season-high 48 yards receiving in the Week 6 loss to the Bengals, catching four of five targets. Spread and empty sets here, with Smith-Njigba working the underneath levels and in-breakers. We know he can produce after the catch, so let's see if Seattle can scheme more opportunities for the rookie in a positive matchup against the Cards on Sunday.
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Tucker caught his first two passes of his career in the Week 6 win over the Patriots, displaying his vertical stretch ability on a post route that went for 48 yards. With Tucker seeing 22 snaps in the game, compared to only seven for Hunter Renfrow, he's a player to keep on the radar as a potential non-PPR option in deep leagues.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
McBride posted a season-high 62 yards receiving in the Week 6 loss to the Rams, and he logged more snaps (44) than Zach Ertz (35). McBride can be used in two-TE sets and flexed alignments as a high-percentage target for quarterback Joshua Dobbs. Let's monitor his snap count and target volume again this week, as McBride could potentially elevate to a streaming option at the position.