Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both side of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
Heading into Week 4, we'll look at a veteran quarterback -- in a prime matchup -- who jumps into the QB1 mix for the first time this season. Plus, I have questions on multiple running backs here. And there's a rookie wide receiver with vertical-play ability we need to monitor this Sunday, too.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Week 4 upgrades
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
This is a matchup play against a Bears defense that is allowing an average of 21.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Wilson has produced back-to-back weeks of at least 300 yards passing, plus he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of three games this season. Remember, the Bears are the league's most zone-heavy team (73.6% of coverage snaps), and they can't get to the quarterback. Chicago has produced a league-low one sack on the season, with just nine quarterback hits. Play Wilson this week as a low-end QB1.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
Thielen produced a breakout game in Week 3, dropping 31.5 points on the Seattle defense, as he caught 11 of 14 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. Yes, Thielen's play speed has diminished. We can see that on the tape. However, he's still a crafty route runner who can create space underneath or use his coverage awareness to find open grass on schemed concepts. And I like the matchup for Thielen in Week 4 versus a Vikings defense that is allowing an average of 53.3 fantasy points to wide receivers. Play Thielen here as a solid WR3.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
We have to look at Engram's recent production and offensive deployment, plus the positive matchup versus an Atlanta defense that ranks 29th against opposing tight ends. Engram has seen eight targets in each of his past two games, posting double-digit fantasy production in both. The key here is the Jags' route structure that allows Engram to produce after the catch. In those past two games, Engram is averaging 8.08 yards after the catch. Boot, screen, crosser, pivot. That's where you'll see fantasy production on high-percentage targets. Engram is a midtier TE1 this week.
Players I have questions about in Week 4
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon fits as a midtier RB2 this week, but I don't love the Week 4 matchup versus the Titans' defensive front. Tennessee is surrendering just 2.6 yards per carry -- best in the league -- and this unit is allowing an average of only 14.4 fantasy points per game to running backs. Mixon did add a second-half touchdown in the Week 3 win over the Rams and finished with a season-high 14.0 fantasy points. But he has failed to rush for more than 65 yards in a game and sits at just eight receptions on the season. Manage your expectations for Mixon this week.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
Njoku has caught four passes in each of the past two weeks, but he has failed to post more than seven points in a game this season. Now, I roster Njoku in one of my home leagues because he has the receiving skills to work the seams and produce in the low red zone. However, Njoku has run only five red zone routes this season and has yet to log a single target on them. Without the scoring upside, plus a really tough Week 4 matchup against a Ravens defense allowing just 4.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends, I'll be looking to stream a replacement here.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White is seeing the volume of a lead back, with at least 17 touches in all three games this season. However, if you take out the Week 2 numbers versus a suspect Bears defense (21.3 fantasy points), White's production has been subpar. He rushed for less than 3 yards per carry against the Vikings (Week 1) and Eagles (Week 3). I also expected more receiving usage. I would drop White down into the flex range for the Week 4 matchup against a Saints defense that ranks in the top 10 versus running backs this season.
Players to monitor in Week 4
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots
Elliott had season highs of 16 carries and 80 yards in the Week 3 win over the Jets. Sure, game flow played a role here, but let's see whether Elliott's run-game usage stays up for the Week 4 game in Dallas, which would also impact the fantasy profile of backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
With Mike Williams out for the season with an ACL injury, the door is open for Johnston to play a much more defined role in the Chargers' route tree. On the season, Johnston has caught just 5 of 8 targets for 26 yards. However, he has the vertical stretch ability to mesh with the arm talent of quarterback Justin Herbert.
Calvin Austin III, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Austin flashed his big-play juice in the Week 3 win over the Raiders, catching a 72-yard touchdown on a deep post route. And with Diontae Johnson still on IR, Austin should see more opportunities Sunday against the Texans, which might set him up as a viable deeper-league, non-PPR option in the Week 5 game against the Ravens.