After doing weekly fantasy football mock drafts this summer at ESPN, now is the time when I really start to focus on my top draft targets. Sure, the numbers play a role here. So does the tape. I want playmakers and upside on my roster. And sometimes I just go with my gut based on offensive schemes, anticipated deployment and exceptional traits, which can create fantasy production.
Today, I'm giving you four players per position from my draft board, in multiple tiers. There are quarterbacks with elite mobility, dual-threat running backs, explosive-play pass-catchers, late-round fliers and more.
So, let's get into it. Here are my favorite fantasy draft targets for the 2023 NFL season.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (32.7 ADP, QB4)
Jackson averaged 19.6 fantasy PPG in 12 games last season, in an offense that leaned on reduced formations and multiple-TE sets. However, with new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken calling the plays in a system that will create much more space for Jackson as both a runner and thrower, I'm all-in here. Even with the availability concerns -- Jackson has missed five games in each of the past two seasons -- his electric, dual-threat traits can be maximized in Monken's spread, trips and empty sets. And Baltimore upgraded the pass-catching talent on the perimeter, too.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (50.3 ADP, QB7)
With an anticipated boost in Fields' passing numbers, I see top-three upside for a quarterback with his playmaking ability. Fields logged 17 explosive-play rushes last season (15 yards or more), while averaging more than 19 fantasy PPG. He has breakout-game ability, too, after posting games of 39.3 and 42.7 fantasy points in '22. As with Jackson, I'm targeting quarterbacks with mobility much earlier in my mocks. Gotta have it. And the arrival of wide receiver DJ Moore in Chicago gives Fields a prime target -- with catch-and-run juice -- on high-percentage throws in the Bears' route tree.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (68.2 ADP, QB8)
Lawrence is a breakout candidate who posted five games of 18 or more fantasy points during the second half of last season. It's about the offensive fit for Lawrence in Doug Pederson's QB-friendly system, with triangle reads in the pass game, defined play-action and the schemed unders that create production after the catch. Plus, Lawrence rushed for 291 yards and five scores last season. He can be deployed situationally as a runner (27 designed carries in '22), and he has the movement traits to escape pressure. With wide receiver Calvin Ridley also now in the mix for Jacksonville, Lawrence has pass-catching threats at all three levels of the route tree. If you wait on the quarterback position, I see excellent value at Lawrence's ADP.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (154.7 ADP, QB18)
One of my top targets as a QB2 in superflex leagues, Goff finished last season with at least 20 fantasy points in four of his final six games played. Goff is a pocket thrower who leans on schemed throws. He completed 71% of his passes and had 18 TDs on play-action concepts in '22. And Detroit will get a bump this season with two rookie pass-catchers in running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta. Focus on the scheme here, with an offensive front that can protect. And that sets up Goff with clean platforms to distribute the ball and create fantasy production.
Running backs
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (10.5 ADP, RB3)
Robinson is a playmaker who can produce in any game situation and that's why I've been targeting the rookie in as many mocks as possible. Yes, the run-game volume will be there for Robinson, especially on zone schemes. Downhill power to push through traffic, plus the shake in the open field. Robinson averaged 4.1 yards per carry after first contact at Texas. He can go, too. Home run ability here. He also projects as a premier dual-threat back who can separate and create receiving production from multiple alignments. Robinson caught 60 passes for 805 yards in college and I think he will be featured much more in the pass game as a pro. He has the potential to lead all RBs in PPR scoring.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (43.3 ADP, RB15)
I had Stevenson as high as RB9 in my ranks this summer because of his anticipated rushing volume, plus the pass-catching ability we saw on his '22 tape -- in a very disjointed New England offense. Now, with the Patriots signing Ezekiel Elliott, who is still one of the best short-yardage runners in the league, Stevenson could miss out on goal-line opportunities. That has caused his value to take a slight dip. But I'm still in on Stevenson as a solid RB2. He averaged 13.6 PPG in 2022 and will play in a much more structured system this season under new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills (76.6 ADP, RB24)
I'm taking the upside with Cook given his pass-catching ability and perimeter speed in one of the league's most explosive offenses. Yes, Cook could lose goal-line touches in Buffalo to Damien Harris or Latavius Murray. But with the Bills expected to deploy more double-TE sets, Cook can play a lead role in the run game while contributing as another target for quarterback Josh Allen. Cook logged only 21 receptions as a rookie, but with an increase in offensive snaps and pass-game usage, he fits as a potential RB2/flex in my lineup.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (158.2 ADP, RB46)
Warren is a top insurance back behind Najee Harris, and he also has value in deeper leagues because of his usage in the Steelers' offense. Last season, Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry with 11 of his 77 carries going for 10 yards or more. He logged 28 receptions, too. While I would like to see Warren deployed on more schemed routes, he has the ability to produce receiving numbers out of the backfield. I like the traits here with Warren, and that's why he has been a consistent late-round target for me this summer in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Wide receivers
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (18.8 ADP, WR8)
During his rookie season in '22, Wilson had nine double-digit scoring efforts, including three games with 24 points or more. And remember, he did that with low-level quarterback play in New York. This season, with Aaron Rodgers now running the offense, we should expect a major boost to Wilson's production with a much more efficient and explosive pass game. The playmaking traits are there for Wilson, which includes the sudden movement ability after the catch and the body control to finish down the field. With a numbers bump here, including more touchdowns, I see Wilson as a WR1 in '23.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (86.0 ADP, WR30)
It's really all about the tape for me on Aiyuk -- in a 49ers offensive system that schemes for fantasy production. He's an explosive mover, with the refined route traits to uncover. And that works in Kyle Shanahan's offense on play-pass throws, plus the formations that create the winnable one-on-ones. Aiyuk caught 78 passes last season and averaged 13.4 fantasy PPG. Even if we see a dip in touchdown production (Aiyuk had eight last season), I still like him for my lineup as a flex/WR3.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (109.4 ADP, WR39)
Dotson has been one of my favorite targets later in drafts given his ADP, plus the tape and production at the end of his rookie season. Over his final five games in '22, Dotson posted four games of double-digit fantasy production, with a touchdown grab in three of those. He can get loose at the second level and there's plenty of juice here for Dotson to separate down the field. He did miss five games last season, but with an increase in targets this season, Dotson can fit as an upside WR3 in your lineup.
Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs (156.1 ADP, WR58)
At the beginning of the summer, I tagged Toney as my breakout candidate for this season based on how he would be deployed as a motion/movement player in a Chiefs offense that lives in the red zone. Fly sweeps, screens, the backfield touches -- plus Toney's ability to win in the route tree. It's all about the schemed touches here. The availability concerns with Toney, however, are back again, as he missed the majority of camp with a knee injury. At this stage, teammate Skyy Moore is probably the safer play if you are looking for a late-rounder with breakout ability, but I'm still going to take one more chance on Toney in my drafts. I'm betting on the talent here as a flier.
Tight ends
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (46.6 ADP, TE3)
I rarely jump at tight ends early in drafts. But if I do, it's been Hockenson after watching how he was used in Minnesota's pass-heavy offense. Motion, movement and formation versatility. That allowed Hockenson -- in 10 games played with the Vikings last season -- to average 13 PPR PPG while logging 60 receptions on 87 targets. He can work the dirty areas of the field between the hashes and catch the unders, and he will be schemed open as a red zone target. Hockenson is a Tier 1 tight end on my board.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (70.2 ADP, TE7)
There are some injury concerns here for Goedert, as he hasn't played a full season since 2018. But at his current ADP, in a high-scoring offense that deploys him as a top-three target, I can roll with Goedert given his fantasy floor. He averaged 11.8 fantasy PPG in 12 games last season and scored in double figures seven times. He's a primary option for quarterback Jalen Hurts on quick RPO throws and we know he can separate or win with leverage when working the middle of the field. The lack of touchdown production -- he hasn't caught more than five in a season -- keeps Goedert out of the top tier at the position, but he's a player I can draft later and still get TE1 numbers.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (89.1 ADP, TE9)
A lower-tier TE1 who made an appearance in this column last summer, Freiermuth will have top-five upside if we see that touchdown count climb back to where it was during his rookie season (seven). Freiermuth posted double-digit production in eight of his 16 games played last season, finishing with an average of 9.3 PPG. He's a seam stretcher, with the 6-foot-5, 258-pound frame to box out defenders in the low red zone. The second-year development of quarterback Kenny Pickett works here, too, as Freiermuth can be that high-percentage target between the numbers. And like Goedert, I can wait on Freiermuth in 10-team leagues.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (143.0 ADP, TE15)
In 12- and 14-team leagues, I consistently eye Kincaid as a late-round target, despite the recent history of rookie tight ends. In Buffalo, we have to see Kincaid as a versatile player in the pass game who can flex outside in multiple-TE sets or even align as a backside X receiver/power slot. He can work the seams and verticals at the third level, catch and run underneath. Kincaid had 70 receptions in his final college season at Utah. I'll take a chance here late with him running routes for Allen in the Bills' offense.