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Fantasy football rookies: What to expect in 2023 and beyond

Bijan Robinson is expected to put a smile on the face of Falcons fans and fantasy managers alike in his rookie season. AP Photo/Ben Gray

Every year, the NFL draft ushers new talent into the league, which provides fantasy football managers new names to speculate on. The potential these players possess and when they are expected to receive the opportunity to produce is what separates the rookies you should consider drafting from those you will need to be more patient with. In this draft, some players' landing spots weren't as fantasy-friendly as they could have been for their redraft value. Here are the top players who could be factors in redraft leagues of varying sizes, followed by those best viewed as dynasty targets.

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

With Richardson, it's the physical tools at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, the big-time arm talent and the 4.4 speed, which creates rushing totals from the quarterback position. Under new head coach Shane Steichen, who called the plays for Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia last season, Richardson will be set up in a system that caters to his rare dual-threat ability. The playmaking element Richardson brings to the table gives him an extremely high fantasy ceiling. He's a top dynasty target and he has the upside to produce top-12 QB numbers in redraft leagues this season if he wins the starting job in camp.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Despite his undersized frame at 5-foot-10, 204 pounds, Young is pro-ready given his pre/post-snap field vision, plus the movement traits inside the pocket. He's quick to find space in traffic and reset the throwing window. There's enough arm talent here for Young to make all the throws required in the playbook, and he will create off second reaction to extend plays or pick up rushing yards. Young is a really good fit for new head coach Frank Reich's system, and he can produce as a rhythm passer with an upgraded group of receiving targets in Carolina. Young should be targeted as an upside QB2 in redraft formats, with excellent dynasty value as well.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

The most accurate pocket passer in this class, Stroud has the arm strength to target all three levels of the field, and there's enough mobility here for the Ohio State star to create outside of structure. In a Houston offense that will utilize defined throws with motion, movement and play-action, Stroud will be set up to deliver a runner's ball to schemed voids. In redraft formats, Stroud should be targeted as a QB2 in his rookie season, with the potential to start in your lineups based on weekly matchups. His real value, however, points to dynasty formats given his pro frame and throwing traits.


Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

I saw Robinson as the best overall prospect in the 2023 class. He's an all-purpose playmaker who can produce in any game situation, and Robinson has all the traits. Run with speed and power and catch the ball out of the backfield. He can shake defenders or run right through contact. In Atlanta's run-heavy system, Robinson steps in as a volume back with explosive play ability, who can also be deployed from various alignments as a pass-catcher. A prime dynasty target, Robinson also has the upside of a top-five running back in redraft formats.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

With the Lions trading D'Andre Swift to Philadelphia, the door is open for Gibbs to produce in a backfield rotation with David Montgomery in Detroit. Gibbs has an electric skill set that translates well to the NFL. Perimeter juice in the run game with big-play chops. He can scoot in the open field. And the receiving traits allow Gibbs to win matchups from backfield releases or to flex outside in the route tree. Gibbs should be targeted in PPR redraft leagues as a RB2/flex due to his pass-catching upside.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

Charbonnet is at his best when playing on a downhill track, where he can use his contact balance at the point of attack to break tackles or shake defenders in tight quarters. And I see future three-down ability for him, too. He can release out of the backfield and create after the catch. With Kenneth Walker III leading the Seahawks' run game, Charbonnet's fantasy ceiling is lowered in redraft formats. He's still a target on my board, however, as an insurance play behind Walker.

Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins

Achane will start training camp behind veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. in Miami, but I expect the rookie to see weekly touches as a motion/movement player in Mike McDaniel's offense. Fly sweeps, screens and more. Achane has blistering top-end speed, and his receiving skill set will create more opportunities for early-season reps. Given the injury history of both Mostert and Wilson, Achane has some late-round value in redraft formats, as he could emerge this season in a rotational backfield role for the Dolphins.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

With his decisive, one-cut running style, Bigsby is an easy fit for Doug Pederson's zone run scheme in Jacksonville. Press the line of scrimmage and bend the ball to daylight. It's all over his college tape. Bigsby has some finishing power, too, in addition to the ability to produce as a receiver. With Travis Etienne Jr. leading the backfield in Jacksonville, Bigsby will compete for that No. 2 role, where he could be targeted as an insurance play behind the Jags' starter.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

With Samaje Perine leaving via free agency, Brown has a real opportunity to compete for the No. 2 role in Cincinnati behind starter Joe Mixon. A highly productive runner at Illinois, Brown has the foot speed and vision to find open daylight, with the lower-body balance to rip through defenders. Plus, I see an extra gear from Brown on the tape once he gets through the linebacker level. He can produce on swings, screens and checkdowns in the pass game, which could create weekly fantasy production in his rookie season as a complement to Mixon.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

We know this is Derrick Henry's run game in Tennessee, but let's keep Spears on the radar, because he has a pro skill set at the position. I watched Spears up close at the Senior Bowl workouts. He had a big-time week in Mobile. And it matches the tape, too. Second-level elusiveness, explosive play ability and the receiving traits. Spears has more dynasty value as a future starter, but he will compete for the No. 2 role behind Henry in '23.


Wide Receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

The best route-runner in the 2023 class, Smith-Njigba projects as a slot target in Seattle -- with outside flex -- due to his lateral speed and change-of-direction juice. Make yourself available to quarterback Geno Smith, with the skills to produce after the catch. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still the top targets in Seattle, Smith-Njigba's rookie ceiling takes a hit here, but he can still be targeted as an upside WR3 in redraft formats.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Addison is a detailed route runner, with the separation speed to uncover at the break point. And he can track the ball vertically, too. In Minnesota, Addison has a real opportunity to win that No. 2 spot opposite of Justin Jefferson in the Vikings' heavily schemed pass game, which will create weekly volume for the rookie. I have Addison tagged as a steady WR3 in my initial rankings.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

At 6-foot-3, 208 pounds, with straight-line speed, Johnston has the physical tools to develop into a multiple-level target for quarterback Justin Herbert. Yes, Johnston's route tree will need to expand in the pro game, but the traits and vertical juice will put the rookie in a position to post some WR3/flex-worthy weeks this season.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

One of the most explosive receivers in this draft class, Flowers can stretch defenses vertically and create after the catch. He's a rapid accelerator with the ball in his hands. And there's a serious playmaking element to his game -- from multiple alignments. He and Odell Beckham Jr. provide upgrades for Lamar Jackson. Flowers has the juice to produce some breakout games this season.

Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers

Mingo's powerful 6-foot-2, 220-pound frame and his alignment versatility should create opportunities for the rookie on verticals, crossers and unders in the Panthers' route tree. And I see a path for Mingo to quickly establish a fantasy presence in this offense with rookie quarterback Bryce Young. He's a physical, three-level target who can produce on catch-and-run throws.


Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox is still in the mix for Buffalo, but Kincaid provides a unique skill set as a pass-catcher, with the formation flexibility to work out of the slot. This is where Kincaid can stretch the seams for quarterback Josh Allen, uncover underneath and run after the catch. Like with all rookie tight ends, we have to manage fantasy expectations, but Kincaid can be targeted as an upside TE2 in one of the NFL's most explosive offenses.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

A tight end who is rugged after the catch, LaPorta can play in-line or flex outside as a boundary target in 3x1 sets. He has the route traits to win as a dependable target for quarterback Jared Goff. In Detroit, LaPorta projects as the Lions' No. 1 tight end, and he brings TE2 value in fantasy with streaming upside based on weekly matchups.

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

Mayer has some old-school traits to his game. He's a chain-mover on middle-of-the-field throws, with the frame and toughness to make catches in traffic. In Vegas, Josh McDaniels will scheme for the tight end, too, with play-action concepts that open up the seams and second-level windows for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Target Mayer as a TE2 this season.

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers

Musgrave jumps in as a big-body target for quarterback Jordan Love. Create leverage to the ball. Work inside the numbers. And Musgrave has the ability to stretch defenses at the third level, too -- especially in the Packers' play-action route tree. With plenty of opportunity for Musgrave to see early reps in Green Bay, fantasy managers should keep an eye on his volume/production as a potential matchup play as the season progresses.


Dynasty Targets

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans

Starter Ryan Tannehill is slated to start this season for the Titans, but he's also heading into the final year of his contract. That makes Levis a prime dynasty target given his traits at the position, plus the offensive setup in Tennessee. Levis has outstanding arm talent and he's a good mover who has the toughness to be schemed situationally as a runner. And Levis will be working in a system with heavy play-action elements.

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints

Miller is a sturdy runner with the patience to set up blockers and find open lanes. And he can be utilized more as a pass-catcher in a pro offense. But with Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams in the Saints' running back room, Miller could see limited volume as a rookie. He's a dynasty target to jump on, however, given his ability to produce as an early-down runner with big-play chops.

Hendon Hooker, QB, Detroit Lions

You can write in Hooker on your dynasty board as a potential future starter in Detroit. With a natural over-the-top release and efficient mechanics, Hooker projects as a pocket thrower with the dual-threat ability to produce rushing totals in the league. As he transitions from Tennessee's Air Raid system, Hooker will get the time to develop with Jared Goff as the No. 1 currently in Detroit.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers

Slippery off the ball and quick to separate from coverage, Reed will have productive fantasy weeks as a rookie. But he's better served as a dynasty target who can accelerate his overall game in Year 2 with Jordan Love.

Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears

Johnson played behind Bijan Robinson at Texas, but don't sleep on his pro frame and his powerful, north/south running style. Robinson faces veteran competition in Chicago from Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman, which lowers his expectations as a rookie. But with Foreman playing on a one-year deal, Johnson has the skills to push for a volume role in 2024.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs plays with some juice out of the slot, where he can get loose underneath or press the third level. With the Colts, Downs is a good fit in 11 personnel with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, but he doesn't factor in as a weekly volume target in his rookie season.

Darnell Washington, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

There isn't a clear path for Washington to produce viable fantasy numbers as the No. 2 tight end in Pittsburgh behind Pat Freiermuth. But you are betting on his 6-foot-7, 264-pound frame and potential matchup ability, especially in the red zone.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

With veteran starter Evan Engram playing on the franchise tag this season, Strange could potentially elevate to the Jags' No. 1 TE in 2024. He projects as a "move" tight end in Doug Pederson's offense with catch-and-run traits. Strange has the skill set to be deployed like Engram in the route tree: multiple alignments and work all three levels.

Jalin Hyatt, WR, New York Giants

Hyatt brings a vertical stretch element to the Giants. He can absolutely roll, and the game speed is faster than the stopwatch here. He can be aligned on the boundary or in the slot. The fantasy impact in New York, however, is pretty limited for Hyatt in redraft leagues given the wide receiver depth in New York and his anticipated role in the route tree.

Eric Gray, RB, New York Giants

With Saquon Barkley slated to play on the franchise tag, I would take a look at Gray. He's a slasher with decisive, quick-cutting ability. There's pass-catching upside here, too. I like the college tape.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns

Tillman has the size and traits to align as a boundary X receiver in the Browns' offense with his 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame, physical play style and ball skills. But with Tillman likely playing in a rotational role as a rookie, he's better suited as a dynasty target.

Nathaniel "Tank" Dell, WR, Houston Texans

A sudden and dynamic receiver, Dell can separate versus man coverage, with the catch-and-run ability to slice up defenses in space. He's a future playmaker in Houston who can also see the ball on manufactured touches.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

A receiver with inside/outside flex, catch-and-run traits, plus the ball-tracking skills to finish, Rice joins one of the NFL's best pass games with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. While you shouldn't bet on Rice to produce consistent fantasy totals as a rookie, he's set up as a solid dynasty target in Andy Reid's route tree.