For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Every week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things might change between this posting and game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Saturday/Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for wild-card weekend.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: Based on the pricing this week, it can be difficult to get to Allen stacks, but in tournaments, it is well worth the potential upside. Allen has -- by far -- the best ceiling of all the quarterbacks on the slate. The Dolphins faced the second-most pass attempts in the league (and the most among playoff teams) with 36.7 per game. Allen has been a wrecking ball against the Dolphins over his career, with multiple TD passes in all 10 games and over 30 rushing yards in eight of those meetings.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers tend to be a good matchup for opposing running backs, but if you're playing the short two-game Saturday slate, Lawrence comes in at a massive bargain. On shorter slates, it's totally within the world of possibility to break certain closely held daily fantasy sports rules such as playing a team's quarterback and running back together in the same lineup. The Chargers allow touchdowns on 4.8% of their passes, and in their Week 3 meeting, Lawrence completed 28 of 39 attempts for 262 yards and three touchdowns.
Daniel Jones ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: Aside from Allen, Jones provides us with the highest rushing upside of any quarterback on this week's slate (assuming Lamar Jackson does not play). In their Week 16 matchup, Jones reached the 300-yard bonus, and his DraftKings price provides a very solid floor-to-ceiling combination this week. Minnesota allows 2.1 points per drive, the worst in the NFL playoffs. Jones has had either double-digit rushing attempts or 35 passing attempts in six of his last seven games.
Also interested in
Kirk Cousins ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants: Cousins is a much better DFS bet at home, with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in Minnesota versus an 11-to-10 ratio on the road in 2022. In the Week 16 game between these teams, Cousins completed 34 passes, which tied for his season high. He also threw three TD passes and missed out on the 300-yard bonus by a single yard.
Running backs
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: There is plenty of value on this slate, as DraftKings chose to "price down" a lot of the mid-level wide receivers and quarterbacks. This allows us to pay up for not just one but possibly two superstar players. Paying up for McCaffrey this weekend on the full six-game slate is not that difficult to do, and he remains the most elite running back in daily fantasy. Seattle allows 6.7 yards per RB target, and in Week 15, McCaffrey logged a season-high 26 carries and caught six passes, totaling 138 yards and a touchdown.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers: While there are way fewer matchups to exploit once we get to the NFL playoffs, there are still certain defense-versus-position matchups that we can use to our advantage. The Chargers allow running backs to catch 84.2% of their targets, and Etienne has had multiple catches in four straight games. The Chargers also give up a league-high 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown on 3.6% of RB carries. Etienne should see over 20 opportunities in this game, and with his big-play ability combined with the Chargers' inefficiency at stopping opposing running backs, he looks to be an absolute smash play.
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: Ekeler led the league in touchdowns this season and, when you add that to his usage in the passing game, he presents a nice pivot off of McCaffrey as a high-volume RB option with big TD upside. Since the return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams around six weeks ago, Ekeler's usage in the passing game predictably dipped. Still, over the past six games, he has managed to reel in 27 catches on 29 targets.
Also interested in
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Since their Week 7 bye, the Bills have really struggled to tackle opposing running backs. They've allowed 2.4 yards after first contact, the highest total in the league. The injury to Raheem Mostert's thumb should lead to a massively increased workload for Wilson this weekend. He could end up being one of the better values on the board -- and at a low percentage of play, since people will tend to look elsewhere for what the standard roster build is shaping up to look like.
Wide receivers
Justin Jefferson ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants: You might not feel like you need reasons to play Jefferson in DFS beyond the fact he's amazing. I wouldn't disagree with you. Nevertheless, I am going to give you a couple of reasons. The Giants allowed the second-most red zone drives per game this season (3.7), with only the Cardinals allowing more. In the 11 games in which Jefferson had double-digit targets, he scored a touchdown in seven of them, had double-digit catches in six, and reached the 100-yard bonus in nine.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DraftKings, 8,600 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: There are a lot of great wide receivers on the slate this week, but Diggs might have the highest projectable ceiling of them all. The matchup against Miami is fantastic, as is Diggs' history against the Dolphins since joining Buffalo. Miami allows the second-most yards per deep completion and the highest among playoff teams. It also allows touchdowns on 22.8% of drives, third highest among playoff teams. Diggs has seen seven-plus targets in all six of his games against Miami with the Bills. Plus, only three players have had more double-digit-target games this season (Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase).
Keenan Allen ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: Allen has seen a fantastic target market share since returning from the injury that held him out for the majority of the season's first half. Mike Williams is dealing with back spasms, and it is still questionable as to whether he will even play this week, let alone be at full strength. This potentially gives Allen a few more percentage points on his target market share of Justin Herbert's throws. Jacksonville is the worst third-down defense in the playoffs, and Allen has received 30.6% of all third-down passing attempts on the Chargers. Since his Week 11 return, Allen has averaged 10.3 targets per game
Also interested in
Richie James ($3,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: James is a glaring value for this weekend and will likely be one of the highest-played players --- both on the one-day slate and the full six-game slate. The Giants just don't have enough wide receivers, the matchup against Minnesota is fantastic, and in Week 16 at Minnesota, James had eight catches on 12 targets for 90 yards.
Tight ends
Evan Engram ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Late in the season, Engram saw a massive role change in the Jacksonville offense. For Weeks 13-18, he was targeted on 26.7% of his routes, compared to just 16.6% in Weeks 1-12. With the very questionable situation at quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens limiting the viability of Mark Andrews, Engram will likely be the most-played tight end on the slate.
T.J. Hockenson ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants: This is a position where you can separate if you can reach a tight end who has a ceiling of 25-plus fantasy points. That's something Hockenson has done twice this season. The Giants allow tight ends to catch 76.1% of their targets, and Hockenson has been targeted early and often ever since the Vikings acquired him in Week 9. Since joining Minnesota, he is tied for fourth in the league in targets and is fifth in catches.
Also interested in
Hayden Hurst ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens: If you're looking for a value option at tight end, Hurst fits the bill -- with multiple TD upside and likely coming in at a lower percentage than most other tight ends on the slate. In his two games against Baltimore, Hurst has run a total of 60 routes with five red zone targets. In his 11 games against all other opponents this season, he ran a total of 293 routes and saw only four red zone targets.
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.