Welcome to the Week 18 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention shallow or deep leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
It's never too late to draft! Sign up for a new ESPN fantasy basketball league today. Play for free
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Travis Kelce
Jerick McKinnon has done the unthinkable, catching at least one TD pass in five consecutive games. He has seven total scores during this span, after managing only one in his first 11 games. Regression to the mean is a lock, but his expected TD total of 7.2 (including rushing) isn't too far off his actual output (9). McKinnon has had a total of 15 touches over his past two games but has cleared 10 touches only twice this season, so he remains no more than a flex option. The same goes for Isiah Pacheco, who has had either 80 yards or a touchdown in eight consecutive games.
Darren Waller continues to play on roughly 50% of snaps but has yet to clear five targets in any of his three games since returning from injury. However, he has scored in two of those three games and put up a healthy 72 yards in Week 17. Waller is a back-end TE1 in what projects to be a pass-heavy game for Las Vegas.
Over/Under: 50.2 (highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 68% (seventh highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Zay Jones has a total of just 35 yards on nine targets over his past two games, but neither is a major shock against good Jets' and Texans' passing defenses. He's a strong bet for a rebound in a must-win Week 18 game against a Titans defense that has allowed the third-most WR yards, the second-most WR scores (19) and the most WR fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 39.1 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 78% (fifth highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup lock: Tyler Allgeier
Tom Brady was fantasy's QB1 in Week 17, which marked his first weekly finish better than QB10 since Week 5. It was Brady's best showing since Week 5 of last season and he has now thrown three TD passes in two of his past three games. Brady, who is 12 passing attempts away from breaking Matthew Stafford's single-season record (727), might see some work on Sunday, but he's a longshot to play for more than a half with Tampa Bay locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC.
The same goes for key skill players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White and Cade Otton, who are all best avoided in fantasy this week. If we were to get a surprise report that the Buccaneers will play their starters for the entirety of Sunday's game, Evans would be a tough bench after exploding for 207 yards and three scores on 12 targets against the Panthers last week. It was Evans first game with a touchdown since Week 4, but it was only a matter of time considering that he has seen eight-plus targets in in four straight outings. Believe it or not, Evans has more targets, catches and yards than he did with Brady in 2020 and 2021 (and in one less game).
Over/Under: 36.9 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 58% (12th highest)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs
In Week 16, Devin Singletary came up big with 125 yards and 20.5 fantasy points (his most since Week 3), but note that he was barely ahead of James Cook in both snaps (33-24) and opportunities (15-13). Singletary had been held below 11.5 fantasy points in his prior four games, and the three-player committee (which also includes Nyheim Hines) will limit the output of all three players. This is an especially poor matchup, as the Patriots have allowed the fewest RB touchdowns (5) and fifth-fewest RB fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 39.5 (ninth highest)
Win Probability: Bills 83% (second highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
David Montgomery was limited to only eight touches last week, which is his fewest in a full game since Week 7 of his rookie season in 2019. Granted it was a low-volume game for the Chicago offense, but Montgomery barely outsnapped Khalil Herbert (28-19). Montgomery has fallen short of 10.5 fantasy points in both games since Herbert's return, so the veteran back is now more of a fringe RB2 rather than a lineup lock.
Over/Under: 41.3 (fifth highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 54% (15th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mark Andrews
J.K. Dobbins produced a healthy 93 yards on 17 carries against the Steelers in Week 17, which brings him to a league-high 397 rushing yards over the four games since his return from injury. Of course, Dobbins sits at only RB19 in fantasy points during the span due to a lack of passing-game work (a mere 3 yards on two targets in those games). Dobbins is a weak flex against a Bengals defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest RB fantasy points and just 3.9 YPC (fifth lowest) this season.
Over/Under: 41.3 (sixth highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 80% (third highest)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: None
Zack Moss has soaked up 51 carries and two targets while playing on 65% of snaps as the Colts' lead back over the past three weeks. Moss has run the ball well, but he has no touchdowns, a minimal receiving workload, and has yet to reach 9.0 fantasy points in any game. He is a flex option this week, however, against a Houston run defense that has allowed the most touches, yards, touchdowns (24) and fantasy points to running backs.
Michael Pittman Jr. is an occasional lineup lock, but he has a tough matchup this week against a Texans defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR receptions, the fewest WR scores (5) and the fourth-fewest WR fantasy points this season. Pittman delivered a 9-121-1 receiving line against Houston in Week 1, but no other wideout has hit 20 points against them since. Pittman's 9.1 targets per game keeps him in the WR2 mix, though do note that he totaled a 10-75-0 receiving line on 15 targets over Sam Ehlinger's previous two starts.
Over/Under: 31.9 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 56% (13th highest)
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle
Jeff Wilson Jr. (15 carries, 7 targets, 44 snaps) and Raheem Mostert (9 carries, 8 targets, 30 snaps) continued in a committee capacity last week and, while we can't count on a combined 15 targets from the duo, note that Skylar Thompson (this week's starter) targeted running backs on 11 of his 21 throws (52%) in Week 17. Wilson's 18 touches make him the preferred flex here, but note that the Jets haven't allowed any back to reach 17 fantasy points since Week 5.
Over/Under: 36.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 55% (14th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, DJ Moore
D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard both predictably crashed back to earth last week and neither makes for a strong flex option. Foreman has reached 20 touches in five of his past nine games, but he has only one reception over his past seven outings and has been held below 11.5 fantasy points in five of those games. Hubbard held a 32-24 snap edge over Foreman last week, but was limited to 65 yards on six touches. He has been under 13 fantasy points in three straight games (and five of his past seven).
Chris Olave returned from a hamstring injury last week, but the rookie was limited to just five targets on 42 snaps (64% participation). Olave has now been held below 11.5 fantasy points in four straight games and has cleared 13.1 points in only one of his past eight starts. This is a good matchup as Carolina has allowed the third-most WR fantasy points and will be missing Jaycee Horn, but Olave is safest viewed as a deep-league flex.
Taysom Hill matched a career high with 14 carries, while also handling a pair of passing attempts and one target last week. Hill has now scored in four straight games and hit double-digit fantasy points in all of them. The recent boost in usage is enough to make Hill a fringe TE1 (and a solid starter in non-PPR).
Over/Under: 40.2 (seventh highest)
Win Probability: Saints 58% (10th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Diontae Johnson still has not scored a touchdown this season and is coming off a rough showing against Baltimore, but the veteran receiver has seen at least seven targets in six straight games and had hit 60 yards and 11 fantasy points in four straight contests prior to Sunday. Cleveland has allowed the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points, but Johnson posted a solid 8-84-0 line against them in Week 3. He's a WR3/flex.
Pat Freiermuth has been held to six-or-fewer targets in five of his past six games, one of which was a zero-target showing in Week 15. He's also scored in just one of his past 13 games and has a tough Week 18 matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed only two TE scores this season. Freiermuth is a fringe starting option.
Over/Under: 37.1 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 58% (11th highest)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC and are expected to rest key starters like Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. Monitor playing-time projections up until game time, but assuming they won't play much, all of the Giants' skill-position players should be avoided.
Over/Under: 44.2 (third highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 72% (sixth highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
The Dallas offense remains red hot, but Dak Prescott has managed only two weekly finishes better than QB8 this season and has finished outside the top 12 in four of his past six outings. He remains a fringe starting option.
Washington will start rookie Sam Howell at quarterback, which makes relying on the team's receivers a bit risky. The good news is that Dallas has been poor against the pass, allowing the most WR scores (21) and fifth-most WR fantasy points. Terry McLaurin should remain in lineups, whereas Jahan Dotson (six-plus targets in four straight contests) is in the flex mix.
Over/Under: 39.8 (eighth highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 79% (fourth highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
The Chargers play in the late afternoon window on Sunday and will be locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC if the Bengals beat the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens in the early portion of the schedule, so there's a good chance that the Chargers will rest key starters. The message here is pretty clear: have a backup plan. If the Bengals win, plan on replacing the likes of Justin Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams and Gerald Everett in your lineup. If the Ravens pull off the upset, the Chargers will go all out for a win and can be valued as you normally would (and as these rankings suggest).
That said, even if the Ravens do win, Herbert is a bench candidate this week. First of all, he hasn't been great in fantasy as of late, reaching 20 points in only one of his past 12 outings (including two games of under 9.0 points over his last three starts). Since throwing three TD passes in both Weeks 1 and 2, Herbert has managed to repeat that feat just once in his past 14 outings. Granted they haven't been as good as of late, but the Broncos have allowed the second-fewest QB fantasy points this season and held Herbert TD-less in Week 6.
Denver has settled into a two-headed backfield committee, with Latavius Murray (12 carries, 6 targets, 40 snaps) and Chase Edmonds (7 carries, 3 targets, 39 snaps) splitting the work last week. The Chargers have been good against backs in the passing game, but are awful against the run, allowing a league-high 5.6 yards per carry. Murray is the better RB2/flex option of the pair.
Over/Under: 37.3 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 50% (16th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, George Kittle
After falling short of 14 fantasy points in five straight games, Brandon Aiyuk came through last week with 117 yards and a score on 10 touches. Aiyuk's 12 targets were a season high and well above his 6.5 per-game average, so proceed with caution. Aiyuk is a WR3 who will jump to the WR2 discussion if Deebo Samuel remains out.
Trey McBride exploded for a 7-78-1 receiving line on 10 targets last week, but note that he had not cleared six targets, four catches or 55 yards in his previous 14 games. McBride is safest-viewed as a TE2, although David Blough clearly liked looking his way, so he's not the worst streamer.
Over/Under: 37.5 (11th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 94% (highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: Cam Akers, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Higbee
If he's even able to play this week, Tyler Lockett will be a riskier start than usual after playing on only 22 snaps (31%) and seeing a mere two targets while battling a shin injury last week. It's possible Lockett is a full go, but it's far from certain as he nurses his finger and shin back to full health. Monitor reports on his potential usage and consider him to be a WR3 for now.
Over/Under: 41.6 (fourth highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 56% (12th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Watson
Aaron Rodgers is a streaming option this week going up against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points. Rodgers has yet to produce a weekly finish better than QB9 this season, but the Green Bay offense is averaging a healthy 3.0 touchdowns per game during its past seven outings.
AJ Dillon has scored in five straight games, but the flukiness is strong in this one, as he's fallen short of 15 touches in three straight outings -- including just 12 in Week 17. Dillon barely outsnapped a less-than-100% Jones last week and handled fewer carries and targets. Dillon is in the fringe RB2 mix, but don't expect his TD streak to continue, barring a big boost in usage.
D'Andre Swift had 117 yards and a pair of scores on 15 touches last week, but note that he was on the field for only 36% of snaps -- a big step back from 56% in Week 16. Game script was somewhat of a factor in the blowout win, but Swift remains risky, having fallen short of 13 fantasy points in eight of his last 11 games. Green Bay has struggled against the run, but has been terrific against backs in the passing game, which may limit Swift's upside a bit this week.
Over/Under: 49.4 (second highest)
Win Probability: Packers 60% (eighth highest)