Welcome to the Week 17 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention shallow or deep leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins
Tyler Allgeier set new career-high marks in snap share (60.3%), carries (18) and targets (5) last week, which came just one week after he posted career-best showings in rushing yards (139) and fantasy points (22.6). Allgeier has had 18-plus touches and 117-plus yards in two straight games, and the boost in receiving work pushes him into the RB2 discussion, especially against an Arizona defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points -- including 38-plus points to Denver and Tampa Bay's backfields over the past two weeks.
Drake London has delivered at least 9 targets, 6 catches, 70 yards and 12 fantasy points in three straight games. Sitting at WR22 in fantasy PPG since Week 13, London's newfound heavy volume is enough to push him back into the WR3/flex discussion.
Over/Under: 36.4 (15th highest in Week 17)
Win Probability: Falcons 59% (9th highest in Week 17)
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff is a quality streaming option this week. He has finished as a top-five scorer in three of the past four weeks and Chicago has allowed the most QB fantasy points over the past four weeks, as well as the third-highest YPA this season.
D'Andre Swift played on 56% of snaps last week -- his highest usage since Week 1's 65% -- but it didn't pay off in fantasy. The third-year back was held to only 25 yards on five touches and has been over 12.5 fantasy points in just one of his past eight games. Both he and running mate Jamaal Williams (14 scores this season, but under 4.0 fantasy points in three straight contests) are flex options against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fifth-most RB fantasy points and the second-most RB touchdowns (18) this season.
Cole Kmet is arguably a lineup lock this week. He's averaging a fine 6.0 targets per game since Week 9 and had his best game of the season against these same Lions back in Week 10 (4-74-2, 7 targets). Detroit has allowed the fifth-most TE fantasy points and the most TE touchdowns (10) this season.
Over/Under: 52.4 (highest)
Win Probability: Lions 59% (10th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Zay Jones entered last week's game fresh off a 6-109-3 receiving line and having seen seven-plus targets in five straight games (10.2 per game). His dud was not unexpected, given the poor weather conditions and going up against the Jets' elite pass defense. Life will be better (though not ideal) against Houston in Week 17. The Texans have surrendered the second-fewest WR targets, the fewest WR receptions and the fewest WR touchdowns (5) this season. The last wideout to reach 19 fantasy points against them was Mike Williams, way back in Week 4. Jones is a WR3.
Brandin Cooks returned from injury and handled nine targets (a 4-34-1 receiving line) last week. Cooks hasn't reached 14 fantasy points in any game since Week 4, but with Nico Collins now out for the season, the veteran receiver should remain heavily targeted. He's a WR3/flex this week.
Over/Under: 40 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 64% (7th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Jerry Jeudy, Travis Kelce
Isiah Pacheco has produced 15-plus touches and 82-plus yards in seven consecutive games. Jerick McKinnon returned to earth with just 38 yards on his eight touches last week, but the veteran back has found the end zone in four straight games. The two-player committee keeps both backs in the flex mix.
Latavius Murray was a disappointment with only 40 yards on nine touches (28 snaps) in last week's blowout against the Rams, and while he remains Denver's lead back, he has more company now with Chase Edmonds (25 snaps) back from IR and Marlon Mack (10 snaps) also in the mix. Murray is no more than a low-ceiling flex.
Over/Under: 43.8 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 80% (2nd highest)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
We're avoiding Miami's backs in a tough matchup this week. New England has allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points and a league-low four touchdowns to the position this season. Jeff Wilson Jr. (27 snaps last week) and Raheem Mostert (22) are splitting the backfield workload and neither is a safe RB2/flex in this matchup.
Is Jakobi Meyers back? After producing no more than 6 targets, 62 yards or 9.2 fantasy points in five straight games, New England's slot man posted a 6-83-1 receiving line on seven targets last week. Meyers' target share is trending up, so he's a viable flex option.
Over/Under: 37.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 52% (14th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Michael Pittman Jr.
Daniel Jones has delivered 17-plus fantasy points in five of his past seven outings. He has struggled for passing scores (13) but has made up for it with a 109-617-5 rushing line, which puts him in the top five in all three of those categories among quarterbacks. He remains a fringe QB1 option.
Zack Moss has replaced Jonathan Taylor (IR) as the Colts' lead back. Moss played on 35 snaps (12 carries, 1 target), compared to just eight snaps (0 carries, 3 targets) for Deon Jackson and seven snaps (1 carry, 1 target) for Jordan Wilkins last week. Moss ran 18 routes, compared to a combined 14 for Jackson and Wilkins. The Giants are poor against the run, allowing the third-most RB rushing yards and the second-highest YPC (5.3), so Moss is a viable flex this week.
Darius Slayton (4-79-0, 6 targets), Isaiah Hodgins (8-89-1, 11 targets) and Richie James (8-90-0, 12 targets) are all coming off solid-to-great showings in Week 16, but note that those performances came against Minnesota's horrific pass defense. Life won't be as easy this week against a Colts pass defense that has slipped a bit as of late but has allowed the fifth-fewest WR fantasy points this season. Slayton remains the top deep-league flex of the trio.
Over/Under: 37.3 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 71% (3rd highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
If Jalen Hurts remains out this week, Gardner Minshew will again be a viable streamer. Minshew threw for 355 yards last week against Dallas and found the end zone three times. This isn't a great matchup, as the Saints have allowed the second-fewest passing yards and sixth-fewest passing scores (16) this season, but the Eagles' elite offense keeps Minshew in the QB1 discussion.
Over/Under: 42.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 70% (4th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin
D'Onta Foreman (a 21-165-1 rushing line) and Chuba Hubbard (12-125-0) both had huge days on the ground last week, but note that the duo combined for zero targets. Tampa Bay figures to bit more competent in slowing the run this week (fifth-fewest RB fantasy points allowed), though both backs did reach 15 points when these teams faced off in Week 7. The committee aspect (which also includes Raheem Blackshear) and pre-Week 16 struggles suggest that Foreman and Hubbard are safest as flex options this week.
Rachaad White has been out-snapped 86-57 by Fournette over the past two weeks, limiting the rookie to just 96 yards and one score on 23 touches. White is trending down and is an underwhelming flex this week.
Mike Evans has now gone 11 straight games without a touchdown and seven straight outings under 14 fantasy points. On the plus side, he has seen at least eight targets in seven of his past nine starts and also managed a 9-96-0 receiving line on a season-high 15 targets when these teams played in Week 5. Carolina is missing top corner Jaycee Horn and has allowed the fifth-most WR fantasy points this season, so Evans remains a WR3/flex.
DJ Moore's receiving lines in the four games with Sam Darnold are as follows: 4-103-1, 0-0-0, 5-73-1 and 5-83-1. The goose egg was tough to swallow, but the Darnold-to-Moore connection has been strong. Moore could draw the Carlton Davis III shadow this week, but he belongs in lineups.
Over/Under: 39.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 53% (12th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, David Njoku
Brian Robinson Jr. is arguably a lineup lock this week. Washington's top rusher had a brutal matchup against the 49ers last week, but Washington stayed committed to the rookie, allowing him 22 carries. His matchup goes from terrible to elite this week against a Browns defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB yards, the third-most RB fantasy points and the second-most RB scores (18). More Robinson targets would be nice (just 11 on the season), but especially with Antonio Gibson not fully healthy, the rookie should be in fantasy lineups.
Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin have been lineup locks quite often this season, but both are fringe WR2 plays this week. The Browns rank last in offensive points per game since Deshaun Watson took over at quarterback, and that has allowed Cooper to average 9.3 fantasy PPG with zero touchdowns. He did see 10 targets last week, but he's set to face a Washington defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points since Week 5. McLaurin averaged 6.0 targets and 11.1 fantasy points per game with Carson Wentz during Weeks 1-6, but was up to 8.1 targets and 15.6 points per game in the nine Taylor Heinicke starts.
Jahan Dotson is trending up. The rookie opened 2022 with four scores in four games (all with Wentz) before missing the middle portion of the season because of injury. Now healthy again, he has found the end zone in three straight games and has 24 targets during this span. Especially with Wentz back under center, Dotson makes for a viable flex.
Over/Under: 36.4 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 60% (8th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Although you can't bench him, we will downgrade Jacobs this week against a 49ers defense has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points, along with the lowest YPC (3.3) and lowest YPT (4.4). The last back to reach 13.5 fantasy points against them was McCaffrey (then with the Panthers) in Week 5.
Since returning from injury in Week 15, Darren Waller has posted receiving lines of 3-48-1 on three targets and 4-58-0 on five targets. That's not quite going to cut it, especially with a new quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) and going up against a 49ers defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest TE fantasy points. Waller is only a fringe starting option.
Over/Under: 41.9 (7th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 65% (6th highest)
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Garrett Wilson
Geno Smith has posted back-to-back duds and is a poor bet for a rebound against a Jets defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and the second-fewest passing scores (13) this season. Unless you're buying into the "revenge game" narrative, Smith should ideally remain on your bench this week.
Zonovan Knight has produced exactly 2.3 fantasy points in consecutive games after previously reaching at least 13.3 in each of his first three pro outings. The slump makes him very risky, but he and Michael Carter both have an elite Week 17 matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-most RB yards, touchdowns and fantasy points this season. Knight is the slightly preferred flex over Carter, who has had under 11 fantasy points in eight of his past nine games.
With Lockett out last week, Laquon Treadwell (62 snaps), Marquise Goodwin (36), Penny Hart (18) and Dareke Young (10) were all involved at wide receiver behind Metcalf (66). Granted, Goodwin missed some snaps because of injury, but Treadwell's large role means neither are ideal fantasy starts if Lockett remains out this week -- especially not against an elite Jets pass defense.
Over/Under: 40.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 52% (15th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
AJ Dillon has found the end zone in four straight games, but he has benefited a bit from Jones missing time with a few injuries. Dillon's playing time has generally stayed consistent throughout the season and he has handled 11-14 touches in six of his past eight outings. Minnesota is good against the run (3.9 YPC allowed, sixth lowest), so Dillon remains no more than a flex.
Christian Watson was limited (because of injury) to just 25 snaps last week, but not before he matched a season high with eight targets. Watson has fallen short of 50 receiving yards in three straight contests, but he has seen six-plus targets in six straight outings and obviously has big TD upside (eight scores over his past six games). If he's able to play this week, the rookie will be a "must start" against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR receptions, yards and fantasy points. If Watson sits, Allen Lazard will be a lineup lock, with Romeo Doubs rising to become a viable flex.
Over/Under: 46.1 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 51% (16th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Austin Ekeler, Cam Akers, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Akers a lineup lock? I'm as shocked as you are. Fantasy's RB67 during Weeks 1-12 (which included a month away from the team) currently sits at RB4 in fantasy points since Week 13. Akers produced 147 yards and three touchdowns on 25 touches last week and has had either 100 yards or a score in four straight games. Akers has an elite matchup this week against a Chargers defense that has allowed a league-worst 5.5 yards per RB carry.
Justin Herbert isn't quite "lineup lock" material this week, having posted back-to-back duds following a pair of top-12 fantasy outings. Herbert ranks no lower than third in passing attempts, completions and yards this season, but he has only thrown 21 touchdowns (12th) and has zero rushing scores. The Rams have allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points over the past month, so Herbert is no more than a fringe QB1.
Tyler Higbee has been extremely inconsistent this season, but he's back in the TE1 mix after scoring in Week 15 -- his first touchdown of 2022 -- and following that up with a 9-94-2 receiving line on 10 targets last week.
Over/Under: 39 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 56% (11th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Mark Andrews, Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Huntley was only asked to throw the ball 17 times last week, and he has yet to reach 16 fantasy points in any game this season. He has managed only two total touchdowns during his four games. He is not an ideal streamer if Lamar Jackson remains out this week.
J.K. Dobbins followed a pair of 120-plus yard games with a step back in Week 16 (59 yards) and remains in a committee with both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Dobbins has had 41 carries but only two targets in his three games back from injury, and that major receiving limitation positions him as no more than a flex against a solid Pittsburgh run defense.
Over/Under: 33.9 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 66% (5th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins
Last week, Devin Singletary came up big with 125 yards and 20.5 fantasy points (his most since Week 3), but note that he was barely ahead of James Cook in both snaps (33-24) and opportunities (15-13). Singletary was held below 11.5 fantasy points in his prior four games, and the three-player committee (which also includes Nyheim Hines) limits both him and Cook to flex territory.
Dawson Knox has only five top-10 fantasy outings this season, but three have come during Buffalo's past three games. He doesn't bring much yardage to the table (under 45 yards in 11 of 14 games, including four of his past five), but he has now scored in three straight games and his 20 targets during the span rank fourth at the position. He's a back-end TE1 against the Bengals.
Over/Under: 49.6 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 52% (13th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb
Dak Prescott has produced three total touchdowns in four of his past five games and also has had five-plus carries and 20-plus rushing yards in three straight contests. His fantasy output has been somewhat pedestrian (only two weekly finishes better than QB8), but this week's matchup is excellent, as Tennessee has allowed the second-most passing yards and TD passes, as well as the third-most QB fantasy points. As such, Prescott is a viable starting option.
Elliott has found the end zone in eight consecutive games and is a candidate for more work this week with Pollard (thigh) getting a rest. The Titans' defense has allowed the sixth-fewest RB fantasy points and the second-lowest YPC (3.5), but will be missing a substantial number of starters including elite DT Jeffery Simmons. Elliott will be a solid RB1.
Dalton Schultz has slipped from "lineup lock" status after totaling only 58 yards on eight targets over his last two games. Schultz has been held to six or fewer targets in five of his last six games and has gone without a score in four straight outings. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points and second-most TE yards, however, so Schultz is still a viable starter.
Over/Under: 42.7 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 88% (highest)