Making tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Mike White, Jets (versus Lions). You'd hope to have a more proven quarterback helming your team during the fantasy playoffs, but with the position having lost Kyler Murray, Marcus Mariota and Jimmy Garoppolo to season-ending injuries in just the past two weeks (Mariota's a presumed, season-ending IR move), not to mention in danger of having Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Kenny Pickett sit out Week 15 because of ailments of their own, you might need to get creative with filling the spot.
White stands out as a viable fill-in, in part because of his matchups success against the Bears in Week 12 (24.80 fantasy points), in part because of his hefty workload in two weeks since (101 combined pass attempts in Week 13-14), both of which signal good things ahead if he's healthy enough to face the Lions following a rib injury he suffered last week. The Lions have been the position's most favorable matchup, with league highs in Adjusted Fantasy Points Added (5.4) and fantasy points per game allowed (23.3).
Others to like:
Dak Prescott (Cowboys, at Jaguars) has only four more pass attempts (124) than Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have rushing attempts (118) in the past four weeks combined, but he could shoulder more of the load in this matchup against a Jaguars defense weaker against the pass than the run.
Matt Ryan (Colts, at Vikings) has averaged 18.58 fantasy points against the league's eight most favorable matchups for quarterbacks for the season. The Vikings have played like one in the past five weeks, surrendering at least 17.46 points to each of their past five individual opponents with a 21.7-point average allowed during that time span.
Matchup to avoid: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (versus Cowboys). He's coming off the most productive, promising five-game stretch of his entire career, but it's also important to note how fantasy-friendly his matchups during that time. Lawrence faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Titans, defenses that rank 31st, 29th, 20th, 32nd and 30th against quarterbacks for the season (schedule-adjusted). This isn't to say that he can't put up another productive game against the Cowboys, who have struggled against perimeter receivers in recent weeks, but it'd be nice to see Lawrence prove his mettle against a tough defense before giving him a hearty endorsement in a fantasy playoff matchup.
He'll need to follow the Jalen Hurts (16.90 fantasy points, Week 6) or Justin Fields (26.04, Week 8) paths to success against the Cowboys, getting things done with his legs, to be a positional top-10 performer.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens (at Browns). His return to action in Week 14, following a seven-week absence due to a knee injury, couldn't have gone much more smoothly. Dobbins played 43% of the Ravens' offensive snaps, had half (15-of-30) of their carries that went to running backs, had a 44-yard run that Next Gen Stats clocked with a 20.1 mph top speed, and totaled 18.0 PPR fantasy points in the process. Yes, he ran in a partnership with Gus Edwards, one that should be expected to extend through season's end in order to keep Dobbins' knee healthy, but Dobbins brings a more explosive dynamic to the Ravens' backfield between the two.
That's a good thing when facing a matchup like this one, against a Browns team that, in addition to surrendering the second-most Adjusted Fantasy Points Added in the past five weeks (6.8), has allowed 21 rushes of 10-plus yards, tied for second-most in the league. With the Ravens' top two quarterbacks likely to be on the injury report heading into this game, this could be a run-heavy game plan as well.
Others to like:
Miles Sanders (Eagles, at Bears) has scored 28.5-plus PPR fantasy points in two of his past three games, has played 60.2% of his team's offensive snaps for the season, and will be facing a Bears defense that saw six different running backs score in double-digits in their four games preceding the bye.
Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs, at Texans) has averaged 16 carries and 13.7 PPR fantasy points the past four weeks, and he'll be facing a Texans defense that has afforded the second-most points per rushing attempt to running backs (0.77).
Matchup to avoid: Najee Harris, Steelers (at Panthers). While his five-game performance since the team's bye has offered hints of encouragement, specifically his 17.4 touches and 14.3 PPR fantasy points per-game averages, Harris remains nowhere close to the impact performer he was during his rookie 2021. He's a RB2 when the matchup is right, but this one isn't so much, as the Panthers have performed rather well against running backs since Joe Mixon dropped the season's best individual PPR fantasy point total (55.1) on them in Week 9.
Yes, the schedule was immensely favorable -- Falcons, Ravens without Dobbins, Broncos, Seahawks without Kenneth Walker III -- but the Panthers limited that group to the second-fewest PPR fantasy points per game, eighth-fewest points per rushing attempt (0.46) and fewest PPR points per target (0.90) during that time span.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (at Vikings). He struggled through a tough matchup against the Cowboys last week, and in the past four weeks has only barely outscored Parris Campbell (48.5 PPR fantasy points to Campbell's 44.2), so it'd be understandable if his fantasy managers hesitate to trust him heading into their playoff matchups.
Pittman is aligned for a big-time, bounce-back matchup in Week 15, however, considering the Vikings' recent struggles against wide receivers. Six different individuals have exceeded 15 PPR fantasy points against this defense in just the past four weeks alone, with perimeter receivers Stefon Diggs (24.8 points in Week 10), Nelson Agholor (18.5, Week 12), Garrett Wilson (24.2, Week 13) and DJ Chark (21.4, Week 14) especially productive in their matchups.
Others to like:
Elijah Moore (Jets, versus Lions) stepped up in a big way when Corey Davis (concussion) left Week 14 early, and if he's tasked with a similarly large role this week, he could capitalize with near-WR2 numbers against a Lions defense that has seen multiple wide receivers score at least 13.8 PPR fantasy points against it in three of the past four weeks.
Keep tabs on the Texans' Week 15 starters, as whomever between Nico Collins or Chris Moore (Texans, versus Chiefs) steps up as the team's go-to target in the receiving game could capitalize upon this favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that has seen opposing WR1s average a league-most 19.9 PPR fantasy points against it for the season.
Matchup to avoid: Chris Olave, Saints (versus Falcons). While they didn't face many elite passing offenses during the given time span, the Falcons have been much-improved against opposing wide receivers in the past five weeks, in large part thanks to the play of cornerback A.J. Terrell (four catches on 13 targets for 12.9 PPR fantasy points on 68 coverage snaps).
Overall, the Falcons have afforded wide receivers the fewest PPR fantasy points per game (19.5) and points per target (1.38), and DJ Moore (6.9 points on six targets in Week 10) and Terry McLaurin (9.3 on six targets, Week 12) in particular had forgettable outputs against them during that time span. When these teams squared off in Week 1, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry combined for a productive 41.1 PPR fantasy points on 17 targets against one of the team's most underperforming defenses, but Olave might find success much tougher against Terrell and company in the rematch.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Gerald Everett, Chargers (versus Titans). Despite both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams being in the Chargers' Week 14 lineup, only the fourth time that had been true all season, Everett ran a season-high 36 routes and saw eight targets. It was an encouraging sign for his future usage, as is the fact that Everett's seven red zone targets in the three games in which he, Allen and Williams all played led the team.
This week, Everett draws the Titans, who were just hammered for 39.2 PPR fantasy points, the second-highest output by any tight end all year, by Evan Engram. As the Titans are substantially better defending the run than the pass, expect Justin Herbert to come out throwing, with a high degree of likelihood that he'll look in Everett's direction when in scoring position.
Others to like:
Dalton Schultz (Cowboys, at Jaguars) should feast upon this matchup against a Jaguars team that saw two different Titans tight ends exceed 11.8 PPR fantasy points and five targets apiece against it in Week 14, the only defense that can claim that in 2022.
Greg Dulcich (Broncos, versus Cardinals) has seen eight targets in each of his past two games, and the opposing Cardinals have afforded the position the most PPR fantasy points per target (2.26).
Matchup to avoid: Evan Engram, Jaguars (versus Cowboys). As mentioned, he's coming off a career-best output, and the second-best by a player at his position all season, which helps explain how he's the most-added tight end in ESPN leagues in the past week.
Unfortunately, Engram goes from one of his most-favorable matchups all year to one of his least favorable, as the Cowboys have allowed the second-fewest PPR fantasy points per game (6.6) and fourth-fewest points per target (1.10) to the position over the past five weeks. Tyler Higbee (11.6 points in Week 5) is the only tight end to score in double-digits against the Cowboys all season.