Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has posted at least 19 or more fantasy points in five straight games. And I really like the scheme matchup for Smith in Week 14 versus the Carolina defense. The veteran quarterback is one of my fantasy upgrades here. I'm looking at a wide receiver and a tight end, too.
Plus, we will hit on a couple of players that I bumped down in my weekly rankings due to offensive usage and some unfavorable matchups. So let's get into it.
Upgrades for Week 14
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
My QB6 this week, Smith dropped 22.98 fantasy points and three touchdowns on the Rams in Week 13. Going to work on single-high coverages there. And with those three scoring passes, Smith has now posted multiple touchdown throws in six straight games. He's an easy start this week against a Carolina defense that plays single-high schemes (Cover 3, Cover 1) on over 50% of opponent dropbacks. And Seattle will have pass game answers here.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Take the recent run on production with Kirk, plus the pass game matchup versus the Titans defense. Kirk has posted 100 or more yards receiving in two of his last three games -- with 29 total targets during that stretch. And you want to play your wide outs versus this Tennessee defense, a unit giving up an average of 41.9 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (the most in the NFL). Kirk will be able to work shallow areas of the field and the second-level of the Titans zone coverages in this one. Remember, Tennessee is a zone heavy team (65.7% of coverage snaps), with a good mix of single-high and split-safety shells. You can scheme that up.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't write about tight ends often in this weekly piece because it's been a pretty rough year for the position in fantasy. But I like Freiermuth in this spot versus Baltimore in Week 14 as a pass game target for Kenny Pickett -- with formation flexibility. The Steelers tight end has registered double-digit PPR production in three of his last six games, with at least three receptions in each matchup. And we saw last week that Freiermuth can get loose in the open field on his 57 yard reception. Just a simple stick route. Rugged after the catch, with the ability to stretch defenses up the seams. Freiermuth is my TE4 this week.
Downgrades for Week 14
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fournette split touches with rookie Rachaad White in the Monday night comeback win over the Saints, logging 49 yards rushing (on 10 carries), with six receptions for 32 yards. And I would expect that split backfield approach to continue, as White brings pass game upside to the offense, plus more perimeter speed as a runner. Given the shared volume for Fournette here, plus an extremely tough matchup versus the 49ers defense in Week 14, I dropped him down to RB25 in my ranks. Fournette should be viewed as a Flex play in your lineups.
Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
I roster Davis in multiple leagues. And I might still start him this week given the amount of teams on a bye. But I don't love the matchup versus the Jets, and the Bills wide receiver has posted double-digit PPR production in just two of his last six games. Remember, the Jets (allowing only 28.3 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers) are very defined from a coverage perspective, and they will put a tent on top of the secondary to limit the opportunities for Josh Allen to push the ball down the field. Looking at Davis' low floor here, plus the defensive matchup, I have him ranked as my WR28 this week.
Players to monitor in Week 14
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
In his first pro game after recovering from an ACL injury, Williams played only eight snaps and finished with just one target. But we can pull up his college tape at Alabama right now to see how he can create big plays. Sudden. Explosive. Game-changing ability there. Rostered in only 28.6% of ESPN leagues, Williams could quickly become a waiver add if his usage increases versus the Vikings this week.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
One of my top streaming options for Week 14 (rostered in 40.4% of ESPN leagues), Cook adds some juice to the Buffalo offense. It's the play-speed that jumps on the tape here -- both as a runner and receiver. The rookie posted over 100 total yards versus the Patriots in Week 13 (on 20 touches). And I picked him up in a league this week. If you're still hesitant to play Cook as a possible flex in deeper leagues, then let's check him out on Sunday versus the Jets' defense.
More notes from the tape
The Bears are on a bye this week, but let's go back to the Week 13 tape on Justin Fields. That might have been his best game as a pro versus the Packers. Fields showed his arm talent on the deep ball throws. He hit the second-level windows. Made some plays off-script, too. And his rushing ability continues to create conflict for opposing defenses. Fields and the Bears get the Eagles in Week 15.
I wrote about Lions wide receiver DJ Chark in my Week 14 streaming column because of the big play upside he brings to the Detroit pass game. Chark posted 14.8 PPR points last week in the win over the Jags. He's a vertical stretch target who can also be schemed on deep in-breakers. Good matchup for the wide receiver this Sunday versus the Vikings zone heavy defense.
Did you see Alec Pierce's touchdown catch versus the Cowboys? Isolated as the boundary target in the red zone. Fade ball throw. And a contested catch. We saw that on Pierce's college tape ... consistently. I roster the Colts rookie wide receiver in two dynasty leagues. Figure out that quarterback position in Indianapolis next year, and Pierce's production will jump.
The lack of a tight end element in the Bucs pass game has limited Tom Brady's production this season. Tampa Bay needs a seam-stretcher, a middle-of-the-field post-up option here.
Christian McCaffrey caught eight passes for 80 yards in the Week 13 win over the Dolphins. And I would expect the target volume to stay pretty consistent with rookie Brock Purdy now starting at quarterback for the 49ers. Lot of quick game throws here with McCaffrey releasing underneath or flexing out wide on screens. The pass game will be heavily schemed for Purdy versus the Bucs defense on Sunday.
Dallas really attacked the perimeter in the run game versus the Colts last week. Toss schemes. Use formation and alignment to seal the edge -- with the big men pulling outside. It opened the door for Tony Pollard on his 30 yard touchdown run, who is my RB10 in a prime matchup versus the Texans defense in Week 14.