Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're diving into Week 14 bocking matchups in the ground game, plus some team mismatches through in the passing game via our Receiver Tracking Metrics.
Matchups in the Trenches
One tool we like to rely on in this space is our win rates: specifically, run stop win rate (and the converse, run block win rate) to evaluate matchups for running backs. While we have very good production-based matchup data (yards per carry against or fantasy points against), I think run stop win rate adds to the conversation. The way I think of it: run stop win rate is process, and yards per carry against is result. Both are useful. So with that in mind, let's take a look at upgrades and downgrades for running backs this week, based on the RSWR of their opponents.
Upgrade: Latavius Murray vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs RSWR Rank: 32nd
In many ways this is an unideal matchup for Murray given that the Broncos will almost surely find themselves trailing and will have eventually have to abandon the running game. But, controlling for extremely disadvantageous anticipated game script, Murray - who had 17 carries last week against the Ravens - has a chance here.
The Chiefs have the worst run stop win rate in the league, which suggests they are more vulnerable than the 4.5 yards per carry by running backs (rank: 21st) indicates. Rookie defensive end George Karlaftis is a weak point: his 13% run stop win rate at edge is second-worst among all qualifiers. And Chris Jones, as incredible as he's been in pass rush, is has been below-average in run stop.
Upgrade: Miles Sanders at New York Giants
Giants RSWR Rank: 27th
There are other teams slightly worse in run stop win rate than the Giants, but they're mostly good teams - which means their opponents won't have a favorable game script against them.
However, for Miles Sanders and the Eagles, they have the benefit of both being a favorite and facing a weak run stuffing unit from Big Blue. Oshane Ximines is a weak link for the Giants in the run game: while he doesn't technically qualify for our leaderboard he would be just one spot ahead of the aforementioned Karlaftis if he did.
Downgrade: Travis Etienne at Tennessee Titans
Titans RSWR Rank: 1st
One thing the Titans definitely can do is stop the run, and the process and result are in firm agreement on that point. Not only do the Titans lead the league in RSWR, but they are third in yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs.
The Titans boast not one but two defensive tackles that are top in RSWR along the interior: Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart. The result is that it could and should make for a tough day on the ground for Etienne, who had 13 carries last week.
Downgrade: Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette at San Francisco 49ers
49ers RSWR Rank: 4th
The 49ers strength against the run stems from its linebackers: Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw both rank in the top 15 in RSWR at the position. Samson Ebukam's 35% at Edge is well above average (mean: 25%) for the position, too.
White was inefficient on the ground (nine carries for 28 yards) against the Saints in the Bucs' comeback win on Monday night, but Fournette was better (10 for 49). Both catch a break game-script wise with Brock Purdy expected to start as the Bucs aren't as big underdogs as they would have been, but this still could be a tough game for them based on the matchup.
Team Receiver and Defense Tracking Metrics
We've used our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (updated through Week 13 right here!) in a number of ways in this space this year. Let's try a new one: looking at the offensive advantage (or disadvantage) for each team relative to the defense they are facing. In other words, how much is an offense better or worse at Open Score compared to the defense they are playing? And how about Catch Score?
This chart shows it all: the placement of each team's logo indicates how that offense is in comparison to the defense it is facing. The lines on the chart indicate the opponent they are facing. It's a little confusing, I get it! But you'll get it with a few examples.
Upgrade: Cowboys receivers vs. Texans secondary
This is all about openness. We can see on the chart that the Dallas receivers have over a 30-point advantage in Open Score on Houston's secondary. The Cowboys' collective Open Score is 55 - a bit above average - but the Texans' defensive Open Score is 24, the worst in the league.
So the Cowboys should be able to get even more open than usual this week. Dallas' Open Scores are driven by CeeDee Lamb (81) and Dalton Schultz (61), but presumably this matchup advantage should play out across the board, so it ought to help Noah Brown (39) and Michael Gallup (38), too.
The advantage only is in Open Score, we should note. Again, from the chart we can see that there is no meaningful Catch Score advantage for Dallas here.
Upgrade: Seahawks receivers vs. Panthers secondary
What a mismatch! Seattle's receivers are the RTM darlings: Tyler Lockett (89) is all the way up to third (third!) in Overall Score and Metcalf is very strong at 71, too. Together, Seattle's receivers are the top-ranked Overall Score team in the league.
Carolina? They are tied for the worst-ranked Overall Score (39) team on defense. We don't have individual RTMs for defensive backs, but I suspect the issue for Carolina is not Jaycee Horn. The second-year corner has very strong nearest defender numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats: 0.7 yards per coverage snap allowed and -14 EPA allowed.
Putting aside who exactly is the issue for Carolina, Seattle's advantage here is in both Open Score and Catch Score.
Upgrade: Vikings receivers vs. Lions secondary
Detroit's defense has been better in recent weeks. But on the whole of the year, the secondary has struggled: it has an Overall Score of 41, tied for fourth-worst, struggling in almost equal parts on Open Score and Catch Score.
Enter the Vikings, who are above average in almost equal parts in those same two categories, and Minnesota's receivers look like they could be in for a good day.
Obviously Justin Jefferson leads the way here (84 Overall Score) while the rest of the receivers - T.J. Hockenson (53), Adam Thielen (52) and K.J. Osborn (43) are middle of the pack.
Downgrade*: Cardinals receivers vs. Patriots secondary
The battle for worst RTM Overall Score receiver in the NFL is currently between two Cardinals wideouts. A.J. Green (15) and Robbie Anderson (23) literally rank 110th and 111th out of 111 qualifiers at WR and TE.
That's also why I put the asterisks above. I don't think this is really a huge downgrade when the Cardinals are at full health at receiver. DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore (who could return to action this week) are a strong trio.
I wanted to point it out because the Cardinals stand out on the weekly chart, but I think the openness disadvantage against the Patriots is being overstated by Green and Anderson. At full strength this should be fine for Arizona.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player and every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.