Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're diving into Week 14 bocking matchups in the ground game, plus some team mismatches through in the passing game via our Receiver Tracking Metrics.
Matchups in the Trenches
One tool we like to rely on in this space is our win rates: specifically, run stop win rate (and the converse, run block win rate) to evaluate matchups for running backs. While we have very good production-based matchup data (yards per carry against or fantasy points against), I think run stop win rate adds to the conversation. The way I think of it: run stop win rate is process, and yards per carry against is result. Both are useful. So with that in mind, let's take a look at upgrades and downgrades for running backs this week, based on the RSWR of their opponents.
Upgrade: Latavius Murray vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs RSWR Rank: 32nd
In many ways this is an unideal matchup for Murray given that the Broncos will almost surely find themselves trailing and will have eventually have to abandon the running game. But, controlling for extremely disadvantageous anticipated game script, Murray - who had 17 carries last week against the Ravens - has a chance here.