Making tough lineup decisions week over week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (at Lions)
He stepped up with a big-time comeback performance against the Ravens in Week 12, delivering 24.94 fantasy points almost entirely fueled by his 321 yards and three touchdowns passing. What's more, he did it against one of the league's better pass defenses. It was Lawrence's second consecutive game with at least 20 fantasy points, which positions him well for these next two fantasy-friendly matchups, beginning with this week's against the Lions and following with a game against the Titans.
The Lions have surrendered three straight games of 24-plus fantasy points, and all three of them were against quarterbacks who can run, as Lawrence certainly can. It's important to note that the Lions have recorded an interception in each of their past four games, for a total of seven in that time, so Lawrence will need to maintain the sharpness he has had in completing 76.9% of his pass attempts in his past three games. Still, he's in good shape here to deliver top-10 positional numbers.
Others to like:
Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers, versus Dolphins) could be drawn into a pass-heavy game script, as the past five quarterbacks to face the Dolphins have averaged 36.6 passing attempts and 19.58 fantasy points.
Should Aaron Rodgers (Packers, at Bears) play in Week 13, and he claims that he will, he'll face a Bears defense that has allowed an average of 21.4 fantasy points to quarterbacks the past five weeks, fifth most in the league. Rodgers himself scored 16.36 fantasy points against the Bears in Week 2,l before they traded Roquan Smith and lost Eddie Jackson to injury.
Matchup to avoid: Geno Smith, Seahawks (at Rams)
Sure, the Rams are merely playing out the string, but they still boast stellar names on defense (Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner) and have presented problems for opposing quarterbacks all year. Putting aside Josh Allen's 31.48 fantasy-point performance in the NFL Kickoff game, the Rams have seen only one quarterback reach the 20-point plateau, Andy Dalton (22.20 in Week 11), and they just held Patrick Mahomes to his third-lowest output of the season in Week 12 (18.40 points).
Smith has had an excellent, and generally mistake-free campaign, but this is one of his lowest-ceiling matchups.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Dameon Pierce, Texans (versus Browns)
His season has come to a screeching halt just as the entire Texans offense has, as the rookie running back has totaled 8.3 PPR fantasy points on 20 touches the past two weeks. While it's difficult to be confident in a running back for a team that has Kyle Allen as its quarterback, not to mention will be facing its former quarterback in Deshaun Watson, this matchup provides some hope of a rebound.
The Browns, after all, have seen five different running backs score at least 14.5 PPR fantasy points against them in the past three weeks alone, and during that time have surrendered a total of 103.5 points to the position on 97 touches. The Texans aren't likely to dish out 30-plus touches to their running backs in this one, but given 20-plus, a threshold Pierce has reached in seven of 11 games, he should deliver RB2 numbers.
Others to like:
Kyren Williams (Rams, versus Seahawks) has played more offensive snaps than Cam Akers in each of the past three weeks and had more touches then Akers in Week 12 (14-8), a sign that the team might be giving him an extended audition for 2023. Williams is a worthwhile add-and-start from the flex against a Seahawks defense that was just shredded by Josh Jacobs.
Najee Harris (Steelers, at Falcons) had been seeing an uptick in usage the past two weeks before getting hurt in Week 12, but if he's able to play following an abdominal injury, he'll be a strong RB2 against a Falcons defense struggling recently against the run. Jaylen Warren would be next up, but as he's dealing with a hamstring issue of his own, Benny Snell Jr. would be a worthwhile plug-and-play should both Harris and Warren be unable to go.
Matchup to avoid: Devin Singletary, Bills (at Patriots)
It shouldn't be exceedingly difficult to find a stronger flex play for your lineup, considering Singletary's modest fantasy production coupled with this extremely unfavorable matchup. The Patriots haven't afforded a single running back more than 15.7 PPR fantasy points in a game this season, and most recently they held Dalvin Cook to a mere 9.6 points on a whopping 26 touches in Week 12.
Singletary might've had a good performance in the Bills' dominating 47-17 victory in last year's wild-card matchup against these Patriots, but he otherwise has averaged 9.1 PPR fantasy points and 14.4 touches in his five career meetings with Bill Belichick's defense.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Garrett Wilson, Jets (at Vikings)
The switch at quarterback from Zach Wilson to Mike White didn't only rejuvenate the Jets' offense, it did so while maintaining Garrett Wilson's go-to status in the passing game, as the rookie had a 28.6% target share in Week 12 to boost his seasonal rate to 22.7%.
Wilson is running more of his routes from the perimeter in recent weeks -- he has done so 72% of the time in just the two games since the bye -- which provides a matchups benefit, considering the Vikings have gone from Cameron Dantzler Sr. (ankle) to Akayleb Evans (concussion) to Andrew Booth Jr. (knee) to Duke Shelley as their starting cornerback across from Patrick Peterson on the outside, with Evans standing a chance to return this week but Shelley again serving as the fallback.
The Vikings have allowed a second-most 44.7 PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the past five weeks, and that's including their disastrous 40-3 loss to the Cowboys in Week 11 in which they saw only 30 pass attempts.
Others to like:
Drake London (Falcons, versus Steelers) might be hampered by the Falcons' run-heavy approach -- their 56% run rate is second highest in the league -- but he could be a big factor in a matchup against a Steelers defense that is much worse against the pass than the run.
Christian Kirk (Jaguars, at Lions) runs the vast majority of his routes from the slot, making him a must-start against a Lions defense that has allowed the most PPR fantasy points to slot receivers over the past five weeks, including most recently Isaiah McKenzie (21.6 of his 22.3 points from the slot).
Matchup to avoid: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (at Cowboys)
The Cowboys might have been a middling-to-below-average defense against wide receivers during the past five weeks, but for the season, their minus-2.3 adjusted fantasy points added against the position is eighth best. Additionally, this defense, behind largely the play of cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown, held opposing WR1s Darnell Mooney (Week 8), Allen Lazard (Week 10), Justin Jefferson (Week 11) and Darius Slayton (Week 12) to a combined 35.1 PPR fantasy points on 19 targets during the past five weeks.
Pittman has seen nine or more targets in five of his past seven games, but the two in which he fell short were against similarly tough defenses to this one (six for 5.2 points in Week 9 against the Patriots, seven for 13.5 points in Week 11 against the Eagles).
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: George Kittle, 49ers (versus Dolphins)
Should Garoppolo be lured into frequently throwing, as hinted earlier, Kittle would assuredly be one of his go-to targets early and often against this defense. The Dolphins have struggled mightily against tight ends during the past five weeks, their 18.0 PPR fantasy points per game afforded to the position third most in the league.
Among the individuals responsible for the were lesser-known names Cole Kmet (22.0 points on six targets, Week 9), Harrison Bryant (10.5 on three, Week 10) and Jordan Akins (15.1 points on five targets, Week 12). Despite his modest 17.5% target share in his nine healthy games this season, Kittle is a far more integral part of the 49ers' offense than any of those three, meaning that a top-three positional output is a distinct possibility.
Others to like:
Evan Engram (Jaguars, at Lions) has had his share of big games, and while he's a tough player to predict week over week, a matchup against a Lions defense allowing 3.5 adjusted fantasy points added for the season is one to exploit if you're in a pinch.
A key factor to watch in Week 13 is how often Watson looks in David Njoku's (Browns, at Texans) direction, but as Njoku had a 17.3% target share in his nine healthy games working with Jacoby Brissett, he still has good odds of TE1 production against a Texans team that has afforded tight ends 33.2 PPR fantasy points on 16 targets in the past three weeks alone.
Matchup to avoid: Cole Kmet, Bears (versus Packers)
While the Packers did surrender 17.4 PPR fantasy points to Dalton Schultz (Week 10) and 19.6 to Austin Hooper (Week 11) during the past three weeks, on the whole they have performed above-average against tight ends for the season. The Packers' minus-0.8 adjusted fantasy points added is 13th best during the full-year span, and the defense did shut out Kmet on one target over 35 offensive snaps played in their Week 2 meeting.
Justin Fields' health has a bearing on Kmet's fantasy appeal, as Fields was frequently looking in his direction in the red zone, but either way, this is a borderline-TE1 matchup.