Each Friday during the 2022 NFL and fantasy football season, Eric Karabell will bring his always-reasonable perspective to highlight the biggest fantasy football storylines heading into the weekend's games.
As soon as the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off a Super Bowl championship led by Patrick Mahomes and featuring an unconventional running game, selected LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd pick in the 2020 draft, fantasy managers salivated over the possibilities. Edwards-Helaire was an instant hit, though rather inconsistent as a rookie, and big things were expected in his second season as well. Injury stopped him, but, in general, Edwards-Helaire figured to again be a valuable fantasy flex asset in this his third season.
This Sunday night's home game with the Tennessee Titans is a rather important one for those aiming to pinpoint what Edwards-Helaire is really worth in the fantasy world. In Kansas City's most recent game two weeks ago, CEH didn't start in what became a blowout victory over the supposedly defensive-minded San Francisco 49ers. Former Rutgers star, rookie Isiah Pacheco, started instead. It may be time for fantasy managers to re-evaluate whether Edwards-Helaire remains a safe flex option, putting him on the proverbial hot seat this week.
Edwards-Helaire scored on a cool 16-yard run in the third quarter of the 49ers rout, but if he hadn't, he may not have been presented with a goal-line touch. Who knows? Pacheco looked good, turning a modest (for a starter) eight rushes into 43 yards, including a 17-yard run. CEH was no less effective on his six rushes, scoring a TD. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman, incredibly, rushed for the first two touchdowns of his disappointing career, further clouding the running back picture here, at least a little bit. Few will rely on Pacheco or Hardman this weekend. Edwards-Helaire may not have his normal ESPN low-20s ranking at running back, but he's not far off.
The concern with Edwards-Helaire is not only that it sure looks like a timeshare is happening with Pacheco, who averages nearly 5 yards per carry, but also at how the original expectation was that there would be significant volume in the passing game. Edwards-Helaire is 5-foot-7, 207 pounds, built low to the ground, and he relies on vision and agility in the open field to accrue yards. He caught 36 passes on 54 targets over 13 games his first season. This season, Edwards-Helaire has 16 catches in seven games, and only one target in the past two games. Single-digit touches in consecutive games, with no action when Mahomes throws, is a new problem.
How Andy Reid utilizes his running backs Sunday will be interesting, and perhaps instructive to fantasy managers on whether they can count on Edwards-Helaire -- or someone else -- in the second half of the season. Does Mahomes really need a running game? Perhaps not. No Chief rushed for 500 yards in the Super Bowl-winning season, though Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy (remember him?) caught passes. Veteran RB Jerick McKinnon seems like the pass-catcher from the backfield these days. He has nine targets, split evenly, over three games. Will his value increase? Some crowd in this backfield.
Perhaps we should've noticed the potential reduction for Edwards-Helaire's usage months ago when the Chiefs eagerly added former Tampa Bay Buccaneers underachiever Ronald Jones. (We eagerly await his Chiefs first touch, but not really.) Now Edwards-Helaire has to deal with others. Sure, he is the No. 21 PPR running back this season, at 13.5 points per game, but he hasn't reached double-digit points since Week 4. The Chiefs come off their bye, presumably with a clearer plan on how to use the running backs. Fantasy managers should prepare for anything, and it may not be great for the 32nd pick in the 2020 draft.
Quarterback
Speaking of the Titans-Chiefs game, we think Ryan Tannehill returns from an ankle injury, though many fantasy managers may have moved on months ago., but this is important. Rookie Malik Willis barely needed to do anything other than hand the football to Derrick Henry last week, but he boasts significant running upside. The Titans are 5-2, having won five in a row, but the QB may change. ... Las Vegas Raiders starter Derek Carr looked like a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues, but then he scored 1.9 points at New Orleans last week. He needs to throw on Jacksonville -- and he should -- this week or fantasy managers may move on. It doesn't take much. ... It's tough to say New England's Mac Jones is on the hot seat since there aren't many fantasy managers paying attention to him, but in deep leagues, every starting QB matters. ... Jets struggler Zach Wilson was on the hot seat weeks ago. Few expect much now. Should Joe Flacco get his arm warmed up?
Running back
It's reasonable to wonder if Detroit Lions star D'Andre Swift can remain an RB2 on such low volume. The Lions seem to realize he's not 100% healthy. Can we make the case Jamaal Williams is the better play? Perhaps not yet. ... Miami Dolphins starter Raheem Mostert is doing fine, but when the team dumped Chase Edmonds and traded for Jeff Wilson Jr., it reevaluated the backfield picture. Mostert needs to keep performing well to avoid the hot seat. ... Some view the Jets' Michael Carter as an RB2 choice versus the Bills, and perhaps he rebounds after a rough Week 8. It's easy to be skeptical, too. Can't make a case to play James Robinson, though. ... Is this the week the Bears' Khalil Herbert "out-volumes" David Montgomery? ... The Patriots' Damien Harris continues to move closer to waiver wire fodder. ... Will fantasy managers stick with Washington's Brian Robinson Jr. as Antonio Gibson reclaims a relevant role?
Wide receiver
Buffalo's Gabe Davis is viewed in numerous ways. He has three big games, including one monstrous one, and three wee-little ones. We'd like to see fewer little ones or he'll move further away from flex range. ... Whoever plays wide receiver for the Chargers is on the hot seat, to some degree. Mike Williams is out. Can the other fellows produce and stay healthy? ... Same with the Jets receivers not named Garrett Wilson. ... The Ravens' Devin Duvernay is expected to produce with Rashod Bateman injured. Duvernay still hasn't reached 55 receiving yards in a game this season and the Saints allowed little of anything last week to the Raiders.