Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
It's Week 9 in the NFL and the first of two instances in which six teams are on bye weeks (Week 14 is the other). So, let's get on the tape to find the players you can insert into your lineup -- and those you might want to temper exceptions for this week. As usual, we'll also hit on my notes from the film room.
Week 9 upgrades
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
With two straight games of at least 22 PPR points, and with schemed catch-and-run opportunities, you can elevate Smith-Schuster in your lineup this week versus Tennessee. During that two-game stretch, Smith-Schuster has caught 12 of 13 targets, with three of those receptions going for 40 or more yards. He's an ideal fit for the levels concepts in Kansas City (staples of Andy Reid), and he will bump around the formation as an inside/outside target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. JuJu is my WR21 this week in the PPR ranks, and the matchup plays well for him, too, as the Titans are allowing 39.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (sixth most in the NFL).
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
I wrote about Fields in my streaming pickups column this week given his recent run of production, plus the offensive setup the Bears have utilized over the past two games to feature the quarterback on designed carries in scoring position (two red zone touchdown runs). With four straight games of 17 or more points, and two schemed red zone touchdown throws last week versus Dallas, I see Fields as a fringe QB1 in Week 9 versus Miami. And the addition of Chase Claypool could give Fields a boost in the wide receiver's first game with Chicago. Claypool has the physical profile and speed to play as a boundary target in this offense, one that desperately needs explosive-play juice in the pass game. Fields will be in my Week 9 lineup, replacing Dak Prescott (who is on a bye this week).
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
The numbers and the tape tell us that Moore is back, so let's roll with the veteran as a mid-level WR2 this week against a Bengals defense that just lost its top cover man, Chidobe Awuzie, to a knee injury. In Moore's past two games, with PJ Walker throwing the ball, he's seen a total of 21 targets. That's No. 1-type volume. And Moore has cashed in with 13 grabs and two scores. He dropped 27.5 PPR points on the Falcons in Week 8, after posting 19.6 the week before versus the Bucs. I think Moore carries a pretty high floor in this matchup given the bump in volume and his recent usage as a three-level target in the route tree.
Week 9 downgrades
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Entering Week 9, Brady ranks No. 2 in the NFL in total passing yards (2,267). But the lack of touchdown production, which also points at Tampa's extremely poor red zone efficiency, continues to push Brady down in my ranks. The veteran quarterback has thrown a total of nine touchdown passes this season -- with only three in his past four games -- and he's posted 20 or more fantasy points in only one game. I don't love the matchup here versus the Rams' defense on Sunday, either. The Rams are a heavy Cover 3 zone team, which will allow them to keep the ball in front of them, and they do have defined advantages from a pass-rush perspective. I see better QB options (and matchups) in Week 9, including Fields, Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr has slipped all the way down to QB18 in my Week 9 ranks. Last week was a total bust for the Raiders quarterback, as he logged a season-low 1.94 fantasy points in a shutout loss to the Saints, and Carr is simply too inconsistent to trust right now. He has failed to throw a touchdown pass in two of his past four games, and he's reached 15 fantasy points only once during that stretch. Even with a decent matchup versus the Jags on Sunday, I can't put Carr in the lineup until I see him start to cut it loose as a thrower.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Robinson and the Commanders get a tough defensive front seven this week in the Vikings, and I have concerns on the overall usage for the rookie running back. Robinson posted back-to-back games with 17 or more carries, and 10 or more PPR points, in Weeks 6-7. But with just eight touches in the Week 8 win over the Colts, he has slipped in my ranks. I'm all-in on Robinson as a runner, now. That's what you want here -- a back who can lower the pads between the tackles. Without the volume, however, in a committee backfield approach for the Commanders, Robinson is a lower-tier flex play in deeper leagues for me.
Players to monitor in Week 9
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers
My interest in Marshall goes back to his college tape at LSU, where he played as a big slot target. Work the seams, run deep in-breakers and more. And the volume and production did spike for Marshall in the Week 8 game versus the Falcons. Marshall posted season highs with nine targets, 87 yards receiving and 12.7 PPR points. Let's keep an eye on his offensive deployment Sunday against the Bengals, as Marshall could be worth a roster add in deeper leagues.
Nyheim Hines, RB, Buffalo Bills
I have an idea of how Hines will be utilized in the Bills' system, but that's still just speculation until we see him in game action. Hines caught 25 of 28 targets in his seven games with the Colts. He's a sudden mover who can win underneath pass-game matchups in space. And we could see Hines deployed on manufactured touches as well. If you play in a league with 12 teams or more, Hines is worth exploring as a pickup.
More notes from the tape
• In the Week 8 win over Detroit, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 13 of 16 passes, at 11.9 yards per attempt, on throws with play-action and movement. This is when he's at his best. Hit the back foot and decisively deliver the ball. I like Tua again this week as a mid-tier QB1 versus the Bears.
• Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has seen at least 13 targets in his first two games back on the field. And coach Kliff Kingsbury is moving him around the formation, too. Multiple alignments. You can lock Hopkins in as a WR1 for the Week 9 game against Seattle.
• Devin Duvernay's usage in the run game boosted his fantasy totals in the Week 8 win over Tampa. The wide receiver logged 33 yards rushing -- and a touchdown run -- on just two carries. That's the influence of Lamar Jackson as a ball carrier. When the Ravens run their power-read scheme (with Duvernay on the fly sweep), it creates defensive hesitation, which opens up the perimeter.
• The Titans' offensive game plan in Week 8 versus the Texans was very similar to the schemes I see as a high school coach against wing-T teams. Tennessee finished with 45 rushing attempts in that game. And Derrick Henry (who logged 32 of those carries) racked up 219 yards rushing in the win. Hammer the ball downhill. And then do it again. And again. Old-school stuff here. Henry is my RB3 this week for the Sunday night game in Kansas City.
• The Week 8 tape on Dalvin Cook might be his best of the season. Cook, who posted 25.1 PPR points in the win over Arizona, hit the perimeter with speed, made defenders miss at the point of attack and finished runs at pad level. Physical on contact. Cook is my RB8 for this week's matchup versus Washington.
• There shouldn't be any debate on Travis Etienne Jr. as a feature back in the NFL. He's playing at a different speed on tape. And his short-area acceleration changes the dynamic of the Jags' run game. Etienne gets the Raiders' defense on Sunday.
• The Broncos are on a bye this week, but I would go pick up tight end Greg Dulcich if he's available in your league. Dulcich has posted three straight games with double-digit PPR points. He can stretch the seams, and Denver will scheme him open versus zone looks, too.
• The Cowboys are on a bye this week, but Tony Pollard played like the No.1 back in Dallas on Sunday. Pollard cooked the Bears defense in that one, posting 33.7 PPR points. More speed, more explosive-play juice. He's an upgrade over Ezekiel Elliott.
• The Rams can't protect quarterback Matthew Stafford. It's all over the tape.
• Cleveland is on a bye this week, but don't sleep on wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones. He has posted three straight weeks of double-digit PPR production, while catching 14 of 15 targets during that stretch. A player with high-level physical tools, Peoples-Jones is a possible waiver add in deeper leagues.
• Aaron Rodgers has yet to record a single game this season with 300 passing yards. Does that change this week versus a subpar Lions secondary? Maybe. I have Rodgers as my QB9 in the ranks.
• Kyle Pitts caught his second touchdown pass of the season in Week 8 -- on a low red zone, play-action concept. That's easy money. We need more of that.