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Fantasy football shadow report: Can Chiefs WRs dominate in Week 9?

Mecole Hardman scored three total touchdowns last week and draws and even favorable matchup in Week 9 against the Titans. AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.


Advantageous matchups

Packers' Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins vs. Lions' Jeff Okudah, AJ Parker and Amani Oruwariye

Following a rough Week 8 effort against the Dolphins, the Lions have now allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (most over expected) this season. Detroit has allowed the highest yards per target (9.7) and catch rate (71%) to the position, which led to the team firing defensive back coach Aubrey Pleasant on Monday. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle produced 30-plus fantasy points on Sunday and they comprise two of the nine wideouts that have reached 17 points against Detroit this season. Lazard (assuming he's back from injury) and Doubs (who aligned in the slot quite a bit last week) are the two Green Bay receivers on the fantasy radar who make for strong plays in this matchup.

Eagles' A.J. Brown vs. Texans' Derek Stingley Jr. (Shadow)

Stingley shadowed Courtland Sutton in Week 2, Mike Williams in Week 4, Davante Adams in Week 7 and Robert Woods in Week 8, which suggests he may travel with Brown this week. The 2022 third-overall pick has struggled thus far. Sutton (7-122-0 receiving line on 11 targets), Williams (7-120-0 on 11 targets) and Adams (8-95-0 on eight targets) all had big games against Houston, as did the player Stingley covered most often in both Weeks 1 (Michael Pittman posted a 9-121-1 on 13 targets) and 5 (Marvin Jones Jr. posted a 7-104-0 line on 11 targets). Through eight weeks, Stingley has allowed 507 yards (second most among defenders) and 86 fantasy points (14th). Brown appears to be in a good spot here despite the fact that Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Chargers' Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter and Keenan Allen vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell, Isaiah Oliver and Darren Hall

The Chargers are fresh off their bye week and will benefit from a terrific Week 9 matchup against a struggling Atlanta defense. The Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers, as well as the third most to the perimeter and fourth most to the slot. Casey Hayward remains on IR and Terrell is uncertain for this week after missing Week 8 with a hamstring injury. Even if Terrell returns, the likes of Hall, Oliver, Dee Alford and/or Cornell Armstrong will get run and set Los Angeles' receivers up with a good situation. With Mike Williams out, Allen figures to get more perimeter run opposite Palmer, with Carter manning the slot. Upgrade the three wide receivers.

Titans' Cody Hollister, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods vs. Chiefs' Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed and Jaylen Watson

The Chiefs are one of the league's top teams, but they haven't been able to slow opposing wide receivers. Kansas City has allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs, including the ninth most to the perimeter and most to the slot. Of course, that may not matter much this week against a Titans' wide receiver group that has produced 118 fantasy points. That's fewest in the NFL by an almost-unbelievable 49.3 points. Woods is the only Tennessee WR you're considering for your lineup, but considering he has zero top-25 fantasy outings this season, he's not a very enticing play even with the good matchup.

Chiefs' JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Titans' Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Terrance Mitchell

The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (third most over expected), as well as the eighth most to the perimeter. They've also allowed the 11th most to the slot over the last four weeks. The Chiefs move their wideouts all over the field, so we can't easily identify any one-on-ones here, but the Kansas City passing game can be upgraded across the board in one of their better matchups of the season.

Other notable upgrades:

Vikings' Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen vs. Commanders' Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste

Commanders' Curtis Samuel vs. Vikings' Chandon Sullivan (Slot)

Tough matchups

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Jaguars' Tyson Campbell (Shadow)

The Jaguars may have found something in Campbell. The 2021 second-round pick has shadowed twice this season and both were against standout perimeter receivers in games missed by Shaquill Griffin (now on IR). The first shadow (Week 3) went well, with Mike Williams limited to one catch (a 15-yard TD) on six targets. The second shadow (Week 8) went even better, with Courtland Sutton held to one catch (13 yards) on four targets. Including all games, the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to left perimeter receivers, which is where Campbell has aligned 89% of the time. This week, it makes sense to expect Campbell to travel with Adams, which puts the heavily targeted receiver in jeopardy of a second-straight down game. Adams aligns in the slot 29% of the time, however, so he will dodge Campbell and see Darious Williams occasionally. Lower expectations for Adams a bit.

Texans' Brandin Cooks vs. Eagles' Darius Slay (Shadow)

Slay shadowed Justin Jefferson in Week 2 (6-48-0 receiving line in the game) and Terry McLaurin in Week 3 (6-102-0), but did not follow Marquise Brown, CeeDee Lamb or Diontae Johnson in recent weeks. It's not a lock that he'll will travel with Cooks this week, but it's a definite possibility considering Cooks primarily aligns out wide (75%) and is easily Houston's No. 1 wide receiver. Slay has been terrific this season, having allowed a 20-229-1 receiving line on 41 targets (230 coverage snaps). Of course, even if Slay doesn't shadow, this will be a tough matchup for Cooks and the rest of Houston's passing game. The Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points over expected to wide receivers, as well as the fourth-fewest points to perimeter receivers. Downgrade the whole crew.

Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle, Trent Sherfield and Tyreek Hill vs. Bears' Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and Kindle Vildor

Considering how explosive they are, I don't think we can really downgrade Hill and Waddle much (if at all), but it's worth a mention that Chicago simply hasn't allowed much WR production this season. Minimal volume is the primary reason (they've faced 120 WR targets, second fewest), but the Bears have nonetheless allowed the second-fewest receptions, fourth-fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. They've allowed the fewest fantasy points to the perimeter and the second fewest to the slot. Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb are the only WRs to clear 12.6 fantasy points against them this season. Hill and Waddle may not get the hefty volume we're grown accustomed to, but they obviously both remain lineup locks.

Patriots' Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton vs. Colts' Isaiah Rodgers, Kenny Moore II and Stephon Gilmore

The Colts have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the sixth fewest to the perimeter and seventh fewest to the slot. Gilmore has shadowed in most games this season, but especially with DeVante Parker out, it's unlikely that he will against a New England team that doesn't have an established No. 1 perimeter receiver. Thornton, Bourne and Nelson Agholor will primarily see Gilmore and Rodgers on the boundary, with Meyers facing off with Moore in the slot. Lower expectations for the New England receivers.

Seahawks' DK Metcalf vs. Cardinals' Byron Murphy (Shadow)
Seahawks' Marquise Goodwin vs. Cardinals' Antonio Hamilton (Slot)
Seahawks' Tyler Lockett vs. Cardinals' Marco Wilson

Murphy has shadowed Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson on their perimeter routes this season. In those games, Adams posted a 2-12-1 receiving line on seven targets, Kupp was held to 4-44-0 on six targets and Jefferson managed a 6-98-0 line on eight targets. All in all, Murphy and Arizona have done a nice job in these scenarios, and they also did well against Lockett and Metcalf when these teams met in Week 6. Metcalf was limited to a 2-34-0 receiving line on seven targets, with Murphy in coverage on 12 of his 31 routes. Lockett was also quiet, totaling a 2-17-0 receiving line on five targets. What's interesting about all of that success is that Arizona hasn't been good overall against boundary receivers, having allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the perimeter this season. There's no need for major alarm here, but consider lowering expectations a tiny bit for Metcalf this week.

Other notable downgrades

Bills' Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis vs. Jets' D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner

The Jets have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (fewest over expected over the last four weeks) and the second fewest to the perimeter. Diggs (62% perimeter) and Davis (90%) primarily align outside and will see Reed and Gardner often this week.

Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore and A.J. Green vs. Seahawks' Tariq Woolen, Coby Bryant and Michael Jackson

Seattle has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, as well as the third fewest to the perimeter.

Rams' Allen Robinson II vs. Buccaneers' Jamel Dean

The Buccaneers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to left perimeter receivers (Dean's side), which is where Robinson has aligned 45% of the time this season.

Other notables

Buccaneers' Mike Evans vs. Rams' Jalen Ramsey

It's tough to say whether Ramsey will shadow Evans this week considering his volatile usage this season and against Tampa Bay in recent years. In Week 11 back in 2020, Ramsey shadowed Evans on 30 of his 42 routes, including 30 of 32 on the perimeter. In Week 3 of 2021, Ramsey aligned all over the field, including against Evans on seven of his 51 routes and Chris Godwin on 16 of his 56 routes (all slot). In a playoff game last season, Ramsey shadowed Evans on 35 of his 52 routes, including 32 of 40 on the perimeter, but Godwin was out for that game. The most likely outcome includes Ramsey essentially prioritizing Evans or Godwin in coverage, meaning that he'll be on one of them on a majority of his coverage snaps. Of course, Ramsey has aligned in the slot only 26% of the time this season, so Godwin (74% slot) likely won't see him a ton. Evans also moves around quite a bit (27% slot), so while he's more likely than Godwin to draw the shadow, he'll likely dodge him quite a bit. There's no need for major adjustments.