Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
With a defined pass-game matchup versus the Detroit Lions defense in Week 8, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a top-five play in my ranks. Schemed concepts, catch-and-run throws, and he'll get the ball out quick on RPOs. He's an upgrade for me, along with a couple backs I have on the radar this week. As far as downgrades for Week 8, there are some bigger names listed below. And, as we do every week, I'll run through a couple players to monitor, plus my notes from the tape.
Let's get into it.
Week 8 upgrades
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I bumped Tua up to my QB4 this week because of the Dolphins' matchup with the Detroit. The Lions will play some two-deep and bring pressure, but they are also a heavy man-coverage team (41.3% of coverage snaps). So, let's focus on Tua, who leads the NFL with 9.6 yards per attempt versus man coverage. Look for RPO reads, schemed in-breakers and crossers -- with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle "running away" from defenders. Remember, Tua is a short-to-intermediate dart thrower, who delivers the ball with timing and location. That fits here versus Detroit.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
Singletary shot up in my rankings this week (RB15) due to his increased usage in the offense and a slight shift from the all-in, QB-centric playcalling in Buffalo. The Bills were on a bye last week, but if we go back to the Week 6 win over the Chiefs, Singletary saw a total of 21 touches (including 17 rushing attempts). He has produced double-digit PPR points and at least four receptions in three of his last four games. That makes him a solid play as an RB2 this week versus a Green Bay run front that is allowing 4.8 yards a carry this season (25th in the league). And his receiving numbers are a boost for managers in PPR formats.
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Carolina Panthers
Did you see Foreman's two long runs against the Bucs in Week 7? Big man was rumbling, now. And he looked pretty explosive, too. In a split backfield rotation with Chuba Hubbard last week, Foreman logged 118 yards rushing on 15 carries, and he also added 27 yards on two receptions. Even if Hubbard is up and ready to go on Sunday (ankle), I still see Foreman as the back to roster on this Carolina team, which will continue to be run-heavy based on their current personnel. Foreman is a flex play for me this week versus the Falcons defense.
Week 8 downgrades
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Dillon hasn't produced a double-digit PPR scoring game since all the way back in Week 1. And his limited usage in the Week 7 loss to the Commanders (four carries) should create even more concern for fantasy managers. The receiving totals are down, too. You can point to the talent with Dillon, and the perceived offensive fit in Green Bay (just like I do), but the numbers tell the story. So does the Week 8 matchup versus a nasty Bills defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, best in the league. I need to see a major bump in volume -- and scoring opportunities -- before Dillon is back in my lineup.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
You're still starting Pittman this week versus the Washington defense. We all understand that. But I did drop the Colts wideout down in my WR2 ranks given the quarterback change in Indy. Now, I can speculate that the Colts run more RPO, play-action and boot to utilize the movement/throwing traits of Sam Ehlinger. Maybe we see that to offset the sub-par pass protection in Indianapolis, too. My hesitation here, however, is about the volume for Pittman. With Matt Ryan under center, Pittman saw at least eight targets in five of six games played, with two games of 13 or more targets. I'm going to temper my expectations until I see the pass-game structure with Ehlinger at the controls.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
I roster Pitts in my home league. It's 10-team PPR setup. And I'm still going to start him, because of his fantasy ceiling. I'm hoping for a red zone throw on a schemed matchup (like we saw in Week 6). Or more usage from wide receiver alignments. But this Atlanta team continues to operate like a Wing-T offense, with a dedicated run-game approach regardless of the game or clock situation. Last week, in the loss to the Bengals, Pitts logged just nine yards receiving on three targets. And he's posted double-digit PPR scoring games only twice this season. Given the low throwing volume and the lack of creative deployment with Pitts in the offense, he continues to slide down in my ranks, sitting now as a fringe TE1.
Players to monitor
Harrison Bryant, TE, Cleveland Browns
With starter David Njoku set to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury, I want to see how Bryant is deployed in the Cleveland pass game. Remember, Njoku was used as a movement/flex player, working the underneath areas of the field, while seeing isolation throws from wide alignments. Bryant, who has posted five receptions in his last two games, does have some seam-stretching ability and can be schemed as a target on leveled concepts.
Dare Ogunbowale, RB, Houston Texans
Ogunbowale, who was inserted into the lineup at the end of the Week 7 game versus the Raiders, logged five receptions for 54 yards, with a rushing attempt that netted eight yards. That's a quick 11.2 PPR points. Just something to file away here if that late-game production earns Ogunbowale more reps (and targets) as the No. 2 behind Dameon Pierce against the Titans on Sunday.
More notes from the tape
• Raiders running back Josh Jacobs has racked up 30 or more PPR points in three straight games. And I really like this Vegas run game out of 21 personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE). In the Week 7 win over the Texans, Jacobs rushed for 65 yards -- and a touchdown -- on his nine carries with a fullback on the field. Old-school stuff. Jacobs (my RB3 this week) gets the Saints defense on Sunday.
• Utilizing Bears quarterback Justin Fields as a runner -- on designed carries -- will boost his weekly fantasy value. In the Monday night win over the Patriots, Fields registered 55 yards and a touchdown on designed runs, finishing with a total of 82 yards on the ground. Multiple concepts, too (zone read, QB counter, QB draw, QB sweep). Fields has now logged three straight games with 17 or more fantasy points. He gets a tough matchup versus the Dallas defense in Week 8, though.
• Let's see how much pressure the Bucs dial up versus Lamar Jackson in the Thursday night game. Over the last three weeks, Jackson has seen a defensive blitz rate of at least 45% each game. That's a big number. And he's struggled when opposing defenses send five or more rushers, completing just 19 of 44 passes during that stretch.
• We should anticipate more pass-game volume (and creative deployment) for 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey in his second game with the squad. Last week, in a reduced role, McCaffrey caught both of his targets for 24 yards, with one reception on a quick screen from a slot alignment. He's a top-five play for me this week against the Rams.
• The Chiefs are on a bye this week, but let's hit on wide receiver Mecole Hardman here based off the Week 7 tape. Hardman, who has recorded four touchdowns in his last two games, is being deployed as a horizontal stretch option in the red zone. And the fly sweep is a big part of the Chiefs' offensive package in scoring position.
• Giants rookie wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson has posted back-to-back games with double-digit PPR points, and he's being schemed open in the Giants' system. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands, too. He should be rostered.
• If you drafted Kenneth Walker III and stashed him on your bench to start the season, then he might just win you your league. The rookie is legit and he's now scored a touchdown in three straight games.
• It's too quiet right now on Derrick Henry. He's rushed for 100 or more yards, with at least 22 carries, in three straight weeks. And this Titans run game is rolling.
• It's starting to look like a true backfield split in Chicago with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. And I still stand behind my belief that Herbert is the better fit given his decisive running traits and underrated receiving ability.
• We all saw the George Pickens touchdown catch versus Miami in the Sunday night game, right? Elite body control there. Now, I don't love the matchup for Pickens in Week 8 versus the Eagles, but the rookie gets some pretty solid matchups in the second half of the regular season. I think he can produce consistent WR3 numbers soon.