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By the time you're reading this, the NFL trade deadline will be within mere days, as any potential deals must be consummated by 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
The NFL doesn't usually rival the NBA, MLB or NHL in terms of trade deadline activity, but since the last edition of Field Pass was published, two fantasy-relevant deals were swung, as Christian McCaffrey is now a 49er and James Robinson is now a Jet.
Let's dive into the various tentacles connected to these trades, noting that while McCaffrey's is the biggest domino to fall, we'll treat it last given the fact that it happened a week ago and we've dug into it pretty substantially elsewhere.
Jets act fast to replace Hall
Sunday was a really tough injury day around the NFL, which included the awful news that Jets rookie sensation Breece Hall is out for the season because of a torn ACL. Hall was smashing in fantasy this season, scoring at least 10 points in every game and at least 15 in the four games prior to Week 7 (despite just four carries, he still managed 13.8 points in Week 7). He looked like a flat-out star.
Within hours of the final diagnosis of Hall's injury, the team had acquired James Robinson in a deal that sent Jacksonville a late-round draft pick. Robinson is a rock-solid player whose role had quickly -- and I mean quickly -- diminished in Jacksonville (more on that in a moment). He provides New York with a lead back once fully acclimated to the offense. Robinson joins Michael Carter, who opened the season as the starter, as the new one-two punch.
While Robinson's upside isn't nearly that of what Hall was showing (Hall is a special player), volume should be on his side and he has been a fantasy standout before. Robinson's role might not be to serve as the feature back right away in this offense, but I suspect an opportunity at around 15 carries per game with some passing game utilization, good enough to make him roughly a top-20 option.
Carter is my preferred option for Week 8 given that Robinson's role will be uncertain. Carter is an excellent pass-catching back and could well lead the team in rushing attempts this week. He is a top-20 RB play for me in Week 8, and while I think for the rest of the season his value grows relative to what it has been since Hall emerged on the scene (essentially a deep-league flex option), the trade for Robinson pushes Carter out of must-start territory. I'd stack Robinson over Carter for the rest of the season, but both are at least flex considerations weekly.
Meanwhile in Jacksonville ...
The writing might have been on the wall in Jacksonville, as Robinson had exactly zero touches in Week 7. Zero. Not one. He played just 11 snaps, a mere blip on the radar compared to the 53 played by Travis Etienne Jr.
Robinson is undoubtedly a quality back, but it's hard to blame Jacksonville for its decision to feature Etienne. He provides a more explosive element to an offense that can use it, as he now has at least 70 rushing yards in three straight games, which includes one rush of 30-plus yards in each of those games. He's now third in the NFL in yards per rush among running backs and tied for third in terms of runs of at least 20 yards this season.
Though current general manager Trent Baalke's influence during the 2021 draft might have been less significant than it is now, he was still in the room when the team took Etienne as the 25th overall pick following one of the most decorated careers by any offensive player in ACC history. Watch him for one game and you can see the potential stardom.
And Jacksonville looks ready to unleash that stardom for Etienne, as we saw signs of that in Week 7: He recorded his first career touchdown, handled 14 of 15 running back rushing attempts (good enough for 114 yards), played 81.5% of the snaps and saw five targets. That isn't good usage -- that's elite.
What would make the possible Etienne role that much more tantalizing is if Jacksonville unlocks him as a pass-catcher. He was among the best college receiving backs during his time at Clemson and is a major problem for a defense when he has the football in space. To this point, Etienne's routes run percentage (even in Week 7) has not been overwhelming. If that changes ... watch out.
The upside is serious here, as Etienne immediately becomes a lineup lock.
The fallout of the CMC trade
Let's now dive into the McCaffrey trade, as while we're nearly a week removed from the deal being completed, we also have the benefit of a one-game sample to evaluate some things.
The McCaffrey part of the equation is straightforward: He has upside as the best player in fantasy football and prior to the trade had ripped off three straight games with at least 22.8 fantasy points. He played 22 snaps in his 49ers debut and saw 10 opportunities. You don't trade four draft picks -- especially when you already were without your first-round pick in 2023 -- for the right to make CMC a role player. It would be malpractice not to play him a ton and to his strengths, and last I checked, Kyle Shanahan is an excellent coach. McCaffrey is still a top-five back for me.
Teammate Jeff Wilson Jr. played just four more snaps than McCaffrey (who had practiced for about one total hour with his new team prior to the game) and while Wilson did see seven rushes, he figures to be the player whose role decreases most. He'll see a handful of carries per game, I suspect, but is likely headed toward being only an insurance back and not a flex play.
Deebo Samuel had just one rushing attempt Sunday and while he's incredible with the ball in his hands, there's a compelling case his fantasy value benefits when he's running less and receiving more. He had seven targets in Week 7 and is just a tick below eight per game this season. Hopefully that number stays stagnant or even grows incrementally.
On the Carolina side, meanwhile, the team handled the first game without CMC quite well: D'Onta Foreman led the way with 15 carries for 118 yards to go along with two catches for 27 yards, while Chuba Hubbard had nine carries for 63 yards and a touchdown to go along with two catches for 10 yards (this came against a stout Bucs defense, by the way). Hubbard did leave the game late because of an ankle injury, but it is not believed to be serious and he could be back in the mix in Week 8.
While Week 7 was inspiring, I'm not overdoing it on these two players for now. This is a committee after all (Foreman played 27 snaps, Hubbard 23), and I'm still skeptical this offense will be as proficient as it was Sunday (the Panthers rank dead last in total offense). Knowing which Panther to lean toward will also be a tricky path to navigate, but I'll give Foreman the edge because I think he's a more talented runner, making him the slightly preferred flex option.
The current royal trio at RB
It wasn't long ago that the running back position was in a desperate place near the top of the heap. There were three players taken atop the board at running back this preseason: Jonathan Taylor, McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, typically in that order.
Through the first two weeks of the season, those three combined for exactly one game with at least 20 fantasy points. Those who drafted any member of that trio were expecting that sort of output on a game-by-game basis, not one in six tries combined.
To compound matters, the next three backs taken on average -- Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Najee Harris -- hadn't yet had a game with more than 13.8 fantasy points in the first two weeks.
Tough times.
While we were hopeful for all those players to get on track, we were also deeply concerned about the position as a whole: Where had all the dominant backs gone?
Some six weeks later, the running back position looks much better, even if a few stars are still struggling to find their way.
But I'm here to focus not on the entirety of the position, but the three backs who have emerged -- at the moment -- as the three most valuable running backs in fantasy: Ekeler, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is nearly lapping the field this season, as he's now averaging 25.0 fantasy points per game, 4.8 more than the next-best back (Barkley). Ekeler is pacing for 128 catches, which would be by far the most ever by a back in a single season, and with several key injuries on the Chargers' offense, this could keep up. After 20 touchdowns last season, Ekeler is on pace for a mere 19 this season. There's no more valuable player in fantasy at the moment.
Saquon Barkley: Barkley's comeback tour continues, as he leads the NFL in rushes, and is second in rushing yards and second in fantasy points among all backs. Barkley ranks in the top three for percentage of team running back touches accounted for and overall touches per game. The eye test aligns with this. He has been exceptional.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is on a tear right now, as he has three straight games of at least 30 fantasy points. That'll be nearly impossible to keep up, but there are some wow metrics in his favor that bode well for his value. He is also in the top three of all backs in terms of percentage of running back touches accounted for and overall touches per game, while he has 18 catches over his past four games. Any concerns about Jacobs sharing duties in a Josh McDaniels-coached offense are gone.
Sam Ehlinger takes over
The Colts made a move that sent ripples across the NFL landscape on Monday when they announced that Sam Ehlinger would take over as the starter for the rest of the season. It's not that Matt Ryan has performed well -- he leads the NFL in interceptions this season -- it's that he was a notable offseason trade acquisition and the team had obvious reverence for him.
Ryan was not on the fantasy starter radar, but there are certainly fantasy ties to this story that should not be ignored.
Anytime you turn the keys over to an untested, inexperienced quarterback, it stands to reason that you might be inclined to ease the burden by handing the ball off to the NFL's reigning rushing champ. Does that really move the needle for Taylor's fantasy value? Not really, but it's worth noting that I believe better days are ahead for JT.
The passing game might suffer a bit, specifically Michael Pittman Jr. He's an awesome talent and will still be in my lineups, but it's worth mentioning Ryan was actually third in the NFL in terms of on-target accuracy so far this season. It wasn't play in and play out that undid Ryan, it was the critical errors. Ehlinger isn't as refined of a passer, so a slight downtick in value for Pittman is logical.
And while there is plenty we don't know about Ehlinger as a player at the NFL level, there are some things we do know about him from his college days, including his strong mobility. He had nearly 2,000 yards rushing during his days at Texas (note: In college, QBs lose rushing yards on sacks taken, so this number would have been even higher), and it has been a while since the Colts had a QB who could be featured as a runner.
Am I advocating for adding Ehlinger now as your starter? I am not. But with three quarters of the league still yet to go on a bye, he has my attention as a potential down-the-line streaming option if he gets to tap into that rushing skill set.