Welcome to the Week 6 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: Deebo Samuel
Marcus Mariota has a pair of top-10 fantasy outings this season (ninth both weeks), but he's not a streaming option against a 49ers defense allowing the fewest QB fantasy points and touchdowns (2) this season.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (16 carries and two targets on 35 snaps) ceded some backfield work to Tevin Coleman (eight carries and three targets on 17 snaps) last week, but still reached 15 touches, 74 yards and 11 fantasy points for the fourth week in a row. Fantasy's overall RB15 during the four-week span. Wilson is a good RB2 against a Falcons defense that allowed 36 points to Leonard Fournette last week and 21 to Nick Chubb in Week 4.
In their first game without Cordarrelle Patterson, the Falcons' RB usage was as follows: Tyler Allgeier (13 carries and zero targets on 36 snaps), Avery Williams (three carries and two targets on 17 snaps) and Caleb Huntley (eight carries and zero targets on 14 snaps). Allgeier is the top fantasy play here, but he has yet to score a touchdown or surpass 13 touches in a game. He's a weak flex against a 49ers defense allowing the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points and a league-best 3.0 YPC.
Drake London has a grand total of 52 yards over the past two weeks, but he's still sitting at a 33% target share (7.8 per game) for the season and belongs in lineups.
Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most WR fantasy points, but Brandon Aiyuk has yet to clear 63 yards or 12.9 fantasy points in a game and is ideally left on benches.
You'd be hard-pressed to bench George Kittle with Atlanta having allowed the fourth-most TE fantasy points, but he's been held to just 99 yards on 15 targets over his three games this season and hasn't scored 11 fantasy points in any game since Week 14 of last season.
Kyle Pitts (hamstring) was out last week, and his 24% target and 31% air-yard shares are all that's keeping him in the TE1 discussion.
Over/Under: 39.8 (9th highest in Week 6)
Win Probability: 49ers 67% (5th highest in Week 6)
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Rhamondre Stevenson
With Damien Harris out, Stevenson is a lineup lock. He played on 50 of 56 snaps last week and has produced 16-plus touches and 89-plus yards in three consecutive games. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points, as well as at least one touchdown in every game. Stevenson's running mate is unclear, with rookies Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris both potential options. Neither of those two should be in lineups.
Kareem Hunt's usage and production have been incredibly consistent, as his ranges have been 10-13 carries, 2-4 targets, 12-15 touches and 57-74 yards for all five games. He's a fringe RB2, though one must note that the Patriots have yet to allow a RB score this season.
Jakobi Meyers returned from injury and posted a 7-111-1 receiving line on eight targets. He has now caught at least four passes in 23 of his past 25 games and is WR10 in fantasy points during his three active weeks this season. He should be in lineups.
So, too, should Amari Cooper. He has two duds (under 5.0 fantasy points) this season but also three "boom" games (20-plus points). Cooper is enjoying a career-high 28% target share this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones has a 20% target and 25% air-yard share, so although he's a risky play (38.2 yards per game and no TDs), he's a sleeper to monitor in deep leagues.
David Njoku has six-plus targets and 67-plus yards in three straight games and is arguably a lineup lock.
Over/Under: 43.1 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 52% (12th highest)
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers has been between 16.1 and 16.9 fantasy points in each of the past four weeks and is still without a top-10 fantasy outing this season. He's an uninspiring fantasy option again this week.
Zach Wilson has posted a pair of solid QB2 outings since his return from injury, but he's not a good streamer against a Packers defense that has allowed a league-low 971 passing yards.
Michael Carter scored twice last week, but those were his first scores since Week 10 of last season. He's been limited to 11 or 12 touches in four straight games and has taken a clear back seat to Hall (39 touches during the past two games). He's no more than a flex.
AJ Dillon hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1 and was limited to 34 yards on six carries (and zero targets) against the Giants last week. Dillon will be a fringe RB2, at best, as long as Jones is healthy.
Allen Lazard (eight targets in consecutive games and at least one TD in 10 of his past 15 games) and Romeo Doubs (7.0 targets per game and two touchdowns over his past three outings) have separated themselves as the Packers' top receivers. Both are WR3/flex options this week. Randall Cobb is coming off a big Week 5 (99 yards on 13 targets), but he totaled only 150 yards on 12 targets during Weeks 1-4. He shouldn't be in lineups.
Garrett Wilson has been held to 68 yards on 10 targets in his two games with Zach Wilson at the helm, whereas Elijah Moore has yet to reach 60 yards or double-digit fantasy points in any game this season. Both have fallen to flex territory, which is where you'll also find Corey Davis (a 5-74-1 receiving line in Week 4 was bookended by sub-6.0 fantasy point efforts in Weeks 3 and 5).
Tyler Conklin bottomed out with zero catches on two targets last week, while Robert Tonyan has yet to reach 40 yards in any game this season. Neither is a good starting option.
Over/Under: 42.4 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 60% (6th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk
Trevor Lawrence has a pair of top-12 fantasy outings this season but also three 22nd-or-worse finishes. He's not a streaming option, nor is Matt Ryan (zero top-10 fantasy weeks and a 1.8-point effort against these same Jaguars in Week 2).
Travis Etienne Jr. has taken the lead in the Jaguars' backfield, surpassing James Robinson in snaps (63-51), routes (37-26) and targets (6-2), while matching him in carries (18) over the past two weeks. Etienne delivered his first top-25 fantasy outing last week and is back in the flex discussion. Robinson has posted back-to-back duds, but he's seeing enough work to sustain flex production.
Nyheim Hines handled all three of the Colts' offensive touches in Week 5 before having to leave play with a concussion. He should be in lineups only if Taylor is out again this week.
The Colts have allowed the fewest WR yards and fantasy points this season, but Zay Jones has seen eight-plus targets in eight of his past nine games. The exception was Week 2 against these Colts, but his overall usage is enough to keep him in the flex discussion with four teams on a bye. Marvin Jones Jr. is best left on benches in this matchup despite last week's 104-yard effort, as he was kept under 40 yards in each of his first four games.
Although Alec Pierce has produced 80-plus receiving yards in consecutive games, he needed a career-high nine targets in Week 5 to do so. He belongs on benches.
The Colts have allowed the fifth-most TE fantasy points, but Evan Engram has converted 26 targets into just 168 yards and zero TDs this season. He was targeted eight times in the Week 2 meeting (and 10 times last week), but simply hasn't proved himself to be a viable fantasy starter.
Over/Under: 33 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 67% (4th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle
Kirk Cousins has delivered three top-12 fantasy outings and is a worthy streamer against a Miami defense that has allowed the second-most QB fantasy points and fifth-most yards this season.
Tua Tagovailoa is out this week. Minnesota has struggled to stop quarterbacks -- its 8.2 YPA and 70% completion rate both rank among the three worst across all defenses -- but seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson (166 yards on 33 passing attempts last week) won't be a streaming option in his place.
Raheem Mostert again dominated snaps (68%) in the Miami backfield last week -- and, this time, it finally led to a good fantasy showing (122 yards and a score on 19 touches). Mostert has now handled 17-plus touches in consecutive games and is in the RB2 mix against a Minnesota defense that has allowed five RB rushing touchdowns this season (third most). Chase Edmonds had one touch last week and remains way off the fantasy radar.
Adam Thielen's Week 5 dud was expected, but he has now seen seven-plus targets in four straight games and is a candidate for a bounce-back affair against a Miami defense that has allowed the eighth-most WR fantasy points and sixth-most scores (6). Thielen is a fringe WR3.
Irv Smith Jr. has yet to clear 42 yards in any game and, although Miami hasn't been great against tight ends, he's not an ideal starting option.
Over/Under: 46.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 53% (12th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Chris Olave has found the end zone in consecutive games, but he saw a total of just 13 targets during the span -- despite Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry both missing time. Thomas could be back this week, and this is a tough matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest WR fantasy points and only one touchdown to the position this season. Olave (concussion) will be a WR3 if he's able to play. Thomas (three TDs in his first three games) will also be a WR3 if he goes. He can be bumped up to the WR2 mix if Olave is out.
Tyler Boyd should be considered for a flex spot only if Higgins (ankle) is out. Hayden Hurst has posted his two-highest yardage totals in the games Higgins left with an injury (Weeks 1 and 5) and has scored in his past two games. He'll be a viable starter if Higgins is out, although note that no tight end has reached 8.0 fantasy points against New Orleans this season.
Taysom Hill is a hot waiver add this week after his 4-TD Week 5, but let's be clear. He's not a starting option in PPR formats. Hill is not a passer (one passing attempt this season); he's not a receiver (one target); he hasn't been much of a goal-line option (one carry inside the 5); and he's used sparingly as a rusher (21 carries in four games). Hill's extreme and unsustainable efficiency (10.9 yards per carry and 5 TDs, compared with 1.3 expected) does not match his career per-play production. Plus, if we exclude QB starts, he's averaging just 5.8 fantasy PPG since taking on his current role, clearing 9.5 points in only 12 out of 57 games during the span. Last week was his first game over 18.5 points. He has never once had more than nine touches in any game in this role. A crash back to earth is a near lock, although note that he does have substantially more appeal in non-PPR formats, as the lack of receptions is his main deficiency in PPR.
Over/Under: 38.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 52% (13th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Mark Andrews
J.K. Dobbins was inexplicably outsnapped by Kenyan Drake and ended up with only 44 yards on eight touches last week. It was a big step back after a 17-touch, 63-yard, 2-TD effort the week before. Dobbins seems likely for a larger role and better production this week against a New York defense allowing 5.1 RB yards per carry (fourth worst). Dobbins is a back-end RB2.
Rashod Bateman (foot) missed Week 5 after averaging a weak 5.5 targets per game during his first four outings. If he returns this week, he'll be no more than a flex option against a New York defense that has allowed the third-fewest WR fantasy points and the lowest catch rate (55%) to wideouts this season. Devin Duvernay has yet to clear 54 receiving yards in any game but had a career-high 78 scrimmage yards with Bateman out last week. He'll be a flex only if Bateman remains sidelined.
New York is 4-1, but not a single Giant at wide receiver or tight end can be trusted in lineups right now.
Over/Under: 46.3 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 55% (10th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth
We removed Najee Harris from the "lineup lock" category for the first time ever last week, and he followed suit with ... a sad 36 yards on 14 touches against Buffalo. Harris' usage and effectiveness are down significantly from last season, and the results have been one top-20 fantasy outing (12th in Week 2). Harris is averaging 17.0 opportunities per game, which keeps him in the RB2 mix with four teams on a bye, but he has another tough matchup this week against a Tampa Bay defense allowing the second-fewest RB fantasy points.
George Pickens has posted 6-102-0 and 6-83-0 receiving lines on exactly eight targets apiece in the past two weeks, but he and Chase Claypool (under 55 yards in all five games) are tough to justify as flex options in a tough matchup against Tampa Bay.
Pittsburgh has allowed the most WR yards, touchdowns (9) and fantasy points this season, but Julio Jones has appeared in only one of his team's past four games and was severely limited when active in Week 4. Even in a great matchup, he's a very risky flex.
Freiermuth (concussion) should be in lineups if he's able to play, but if not, this is a situation to avoid. Zach Gentry ran 13 routes and Connor Heyward ran eight after Freiermuth departed last week's game.
Over/Under: 39.5 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 82% (highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee
Matthew Stafford has still yet to produce any top-10 fantasy outings this season and, even worse, he has finished 23rd or worse in four out of five weeks.
Cam Akers is averaging 12.0 carries per game during his past four outings, but he went without a catch in three of those games and RB30 is his best weekly fantasy finish. Similarly, Darrell Henderson Jr. has finished outside the top 40 in RB fantasy points in three straight weeks. He has fallen short of 40 yards in each of those games and didn't have a single carry in Week 5. Neither Rams back is a safe start, but there is some deep-league flex appeal here against a Carolina defense that has allowed the seventh-most RB yards and fantasy points (as well as six scores) this season.
PJ Walker (who will fill in for Baker Mayfield) has distributed 127 targets during his two-plus seasons with the Panthers. Out of those throws, 36 (28%) went to Robbie Anderson and 30 (24%) to DJ Moore. Moore was substantially more productive, however, and although his 2022 is off to a slow start, he has seen 19 targets over the past two games. Perhaps Walker will help him toward his first big game of the season. He's a WR3 option against a beat-up Rams defense that has allowed the most WR receptions and fourth-most fantasy points this season. Anderson, by the way, hasn't cleared five targets or 32 yards in any game since Week 1 and remains a very risky flex.
Allen Robinson II has been held below 5.0 fantasy points in four out of five games and shouldn't be near lineups.
Over/Under: 35.2 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 69% (3rd highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Zach Ertz
Is Geno Smith a lineup lock? You can certainly make the case considering he has finished no lower than QB7 in three consecutive games. Among the 23 qualified QBs, Smith sits first in completion rate (75%) and second in YPA (8.3). The "Year 10 breakout player" has a decent matchup this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the eighth-most QB fantasy points (10 TDs) this season.
Week 5 saw Conner leave yet another game with an injury, and the veteran back has failed to clear 77 yards in any game this season. If he plays, he'll see enough work in a good matchup (every lead RB Seattle has faced has scored 12-plus fantasy points, and four of the five scored over 18) to keep him in the RB2 mix. If Conner is out, Eno Benjamin (eight carries and four targets on 37 snaps last week) will see enough work to find his way into the RB2 mix. Darrel Williams is out.
Rashaad Penny has been lost for the season, which means Kenneth Walker III is Seattle's new feature back. The second-round rookie played on a season-high 26 snaps last week and turned eight carries into 88 yards and a score. Arizona hasn't faced much run volume this season, but Walker is a good bet for 15-17 touches in this game, positioning him as a top-25 fantasy RB.
Rondale Moore has played on 87% of snaps since his season debut in Week 3. He produced 68 yards on eight targets last week and has a plus matchup against Coby Bryant this week. Seattle hasn't allowed many WR fantasy points this season, but that's from a lack of volume (second-fewest WR targets faced) rather than from good efficiency (an NFL-worst 8.8 YPA).
Over/Under: 50.5 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 51% (14th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce
Devin Singletary followed up a pair of games with 15-plus touches and 90-plus yards with only 46 yards on seven touches against the Steelers in Week 5. Although it would have been nice if he had done more damage earlier in the game, it's worth noting that Buffalo dominated the contest and rested its lead back for the entire fourth quarter. Singletary remains in the RB2 mix, especially this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the third-most RB fantasy points -- including at least 12 points to all five lead backs (19.1 average).
It took a minute, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire finally caught the regression bug in Week 5, producing only 35 yards (no TDs) on 12 touches. Edwards-Helaire has yet to play on more than 56% of snaps in any game and has cleared 12 touches only once. CEH sits 25th in touches but fifth among running backs in expected TDs this season, so he's seeing enough work in a great offense to remain in the RB2 picture. This is a very tough matchup against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the fewest RB scrimmage yards (413) and 3.0 yards per carry (second lowest), so consider Edwards-Helaire as more of a fringe RB2 play. Running mates Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco both belong on benches.
Gabe Davis came up big in a great Week 5 matchup, but he has had a very Mike Williams-like start to the season, posting a pair of top-15 fantasy outings and two outside the top 65. Davis is averaging an ugly 5.0 targets per game, so boom/bust production is likely to continue in Buffalo's pass-heavy, high-scoring offense. Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) missed Week 5, but he has scored in three out of four games and totaled 15 targets over his past two games. He's on the WR3 radar in what projects to be a high-scoring affair.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has seen exactly eight targets in four out of five games, but he has yet to find the end zone and has fallen short of 50 yards three times. He's a fringe WR3. Last week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling finally translated his heavy snap total into a good fantasy performance (90 yards on eight targets). He makes for an underrated flex.
Dawson Knox has yet to score or clear 41 yards in any game this season, but the high-scoring Bills offense keeps him on the TE1 radar.
Over/Under: 53.2 (highest)
Win Probability: Bills 56% (8th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert
Sanders' fantasy output has been a bit boom/bust, but he has handled 15-plus touches in all five games and only 11 backs have more fantasy points this season. He's a solid RB2.
Ezekiel Elliott, on the other hand, has just one weekly finish better than RB29 (RB16 in Week 3). He's eighth at the position in carries, but 53rd in targets and 23rd in scrimmage yards. Elliott is, at best, a fringe RB2. Tony Pollard found the end zone last week, but that's only his fourth score since the start of last season and he has yet to clear 13 touches in any game. Elliott's presence will continue to limit Pollard to fringe flex territory.
DeVonta Smith might soon be a lineup lock, but he has had two major duds (no catches in Week 1, 17 yards in Week 4) to go along with his three strong games of 15-plus fantasy points. Consider the second-year wideout to be a good WR3 option.
Since his return from injury, Michael Gallup has converted eight total targets into a 6-68-1 receiving line. He's best left on benches until Dak Prescott returns, especially against an Eagles defense allowing a league-best 6.2 WR yards per target.
Dalton Schultz left Week 5 with a knee injury. Considering he has only 18 yards on eight targets since Prescott's Week 1 injury, you might not want to start him even if he's active for this game.
Over/Under: 36.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 75% (2nd highest)
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Russell Wilson had an extremely poor game when we last saw him on the field, and he's been limited to only one weekly fantasy finish better than 14th this season. That said, with four teams on a bye and against a Chargers defense that has allowed 10 passing scores (fifth most), Wilson is still hanging on the streaming radar.
In the first full game without Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III handled 15 carries, ran 18 routes and saw three targets on 39 snaps. Mike Boone chipped in with seven carries, 19 routes and three targets on 30 snaps. The duo is set up with an outstanding Week 6 matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the most RB fantasy points and touchdowns (8), as well as the worst YPC (6.2) and third-most yards (810) this season. Gordon is a solid RB2, and Boone is a flex option.
Joshua Palmer has been held to 30 or fewer yards in four out of five games this season, even though he has seen seven-plus targets in three out of four games with Allen sidelined. Facing a Denver defense allowing the second-fewest WR yards and fantasy points (as well as just one touchdown), Palmer will be a flex option only if Allen remains out this week.
Jerry Jeudy hasn't cleared 53 yards in any game since Week 1, and he has yet to touch the ball more than four times in a single week. A 19% target share is just enough to keep him in the flex picture.
Gerald Everett has three top-10 fantasy outings this season but also a pair of major duds amid his past three outings. He's a fringe TE1, if only because of the ugly depth at the position.
Over/Under: 40.6 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 57% (7th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: David Montgomery, Curtis Samuel
Carson Wentz has scored 21-plus fantasy points three times this season but has also been kept under nine points twice. Chicago's run-heavy scheme has limited opposing QBs to only 142 passing attempts this season (second fewest), which is a large reason most of the QB fantasy points scored against them have come on the ground. So, despite sitting top-five in passing attempts, yards and touchdowns, Wentz is not an ideal streaming option in what figures to be a low-volume affair.
Neither is Justin Fields, whose 12th-place fantasy outing in Week 5 was his first finish better than 23rd this season.
In each of the past four weeks against Chicago, an opposing back has reached 18-plus fantasy points. That said, it's tough to trust any individual from Washington's three-headed backfield right now. Brian Robinson made his NFL debut last week and handled nine carries on 16 snaps. That limited Antonio Gibson to just three carries and four targets on 19 snaps. J.D. McKissic added seven targets on 24 snaps. McKissic is the high-floor option in PPR, but he's no more than a flex.
Samuel remains a lineup lock, as he's had seven-plus opportunities in every game this season, which has helped allow him to score 12-plus fantasy points in four out of five outings. Terry McLaurin has now seen exactly six targets in consecutive games, but hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. He's landed in the 12.2-16.2 point range in four out of five games, essentially settling in as a high-floor WR3. Dyami Brown went for 105 yards and a pair of scores in Week 5, but he was limited to just 16 routes and was actually fourth in line at WR behind McLaurin, Samuel and Cam Sims. Even with Jahan Dotson out again, Brown is not a fantasy option.
Washington has allowed the fifth-most WR fantasy points this season, but Darnell Mooney has yet to clear six targets in any game, nor has he found the end zone. He's produced over 52 yards just once. No Bears pass-catchers belong near lineups.
With Logan Thomas out in Week 5, John Bates (16 routes) and Cole Turner (20) essentially split TE duties for the Commanders. Neither is a fantasy option with Thomas sidelined again this week.
Over/Under: 39.9 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 56% (9th highest)