Welcome to the Week 5 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers has produced nearly identical yardage, TD and fantasy point totals in three consecutive games. Though consistent, the production has not been at a QB1 level and he's still without a top-10 fantasy outing this season. He's a fringe QB1 against a Giants' pass defense that hasn't yet really been tested this season (Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields).
AJ Dillon hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, but the third-year back sits No. 15 at the position in touches (66), ranking 17th in both carries and targets. Better days are ahead and perhaps that will include this week's matchup against a New York defense that has allowed 476 RB rush yards (fourth-most). Dillon is a fine flex.
Romeo Doubs is on the ascent, having produced 8-73-1 and 5-47-1 receiving lines on exactly eight targets in both of the last two weeks. He has played on 92% of the snaps during that span and, with a 25% target share, is perhaps Rodgers' new primary target. Doubs is in the WR3 mix. Allen Lazard has scored or gone over 100 yards in all three games this season and has now found the end zone in nine of his past 13 games. He's a flex option.
Robert Tonyan scored last week, but he was limited to just two targets and has been below 40 yards in all four games. He's no more than a TD-dependent TE2.
Over/Under: 40.9 (12th highest in Week 5)
Win Probability: Packers 62% (11th highest in Week 5)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Pat Freiermuth
Devin Singletary is arguably a lineup lock, having played on 80% of snaps while soaking up 20 carries and 17 targets during Buffalo's past two games. He went over 90 scrimmage yards and was a top-25 fantasy RB in both weeks.
This might be Najee Harris' worst weekly outlook of his career to date, but the second-year back sits 26th in fantasy points (zero top-10 weeks), is seeing less work (17.7 carries and 5.3 targets per game in 2021, 14.5 carries and 2.8 targets in 2022) and is set to face a Bills defense that has allowed five RB touchdowns, but also a league-low RB rushing 313 yards. Harris is more of a fringe RB2 this week.
Diontae Johnson is usually a lineup lock, but he's riskier than ever with rookie QB Kenny Pickett making his first start against a Buffalo defense that has allowed a league-low 693 passing yards this season. Johnson is No. 40 in fantasy points and has yet to find the end zone, but his 28% target share is enough to keep him in the WR2/3 mix. George Pickens (15 targets over the past two weeks) is trending up and showed a good connection with Pickett last week, handling four of the rookie QB's 15 targets and posting a 4-71-0 receiving line on those plays. Still, he's a risky flex in this matchup, as is descending Chase Claypool, who had zero touches last week and hasn't cleared 35 receiving yards in any game this season.
Gabe Davis has been limited to 14 targets in three games this season, but his volume seems likely to rise considering he has played on 97% of snaps. He remains a viable flex. Isaiah McKenzie (head) is questionable for this week, but he has scored on two of his 15 targets over the past two weeks and, especially with Jamison Crowder sidelined, is in the flex discussion.
Dawson Knox (foot) is questionable, but he has yet to clear either six targets or 41 yards in a game, nor has he scored or even seen and end zone target. If he plays, he's a midrange TE2.
Over/Under: 41.6 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 87% (Highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams
Kareem Hunt has been in the 12-15 touch range in all four games, but he has yet to clear 74 yards in any single outing and he hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. This is a great matchup as the Chargers have allowed the third-most RB yards, TDs and fantasy points, as well as a league-worst 6.1 YPC. Still, Hunt will be merely a flex for as long as Chubb is in the fold.
Amari Cooper has (arguably) been the league's most boom/bust player through Week 4, producing two games under 5.0 points and two above 23.0 points. His 26% target and 38% air-yard shares keep him in the WR3 mix.
Joshua Palmer missed a big chunk of last week's game due to injury, but had produced 13-plus fantasy points in the prior two games missed by Keenan Allen. Palmer is worth only WR3/flex consideration if Allen remains out this week.
David Njoku has produced five-plus receptions and 73-plus yards in consecutive games and sits top 10 in TE targets, receptions, yards and expected TDs. He's a fine start against a Chargers defense that has been good against tight ends, but one that has allowed nine passing scores this season (fourth most).
Gerald Everett has produced three top-8 fantasy weeks and, while his production might dip once Allen returns, the veteran remains a viable back-end starter.
Over/Under: 49.8 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 56% (12th highest)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Lineup locks: Dameon Pierce, James Robinson, Christian Kirk, Brandin Cooks
Trevor Lawrence has tossed at least two TD passes in three consecutive games and had been a top-12 fantasy scorer twice in a row before a predictable down game against Philadelphia in Week 4. Houston has been better than expected in slowing quarterbacks, but Herbert put up 340 yards and a pair of scores against the Texans last Sunday. Lawrence is a streaming option.
Pierce (back-to-back top-10 fantasy weeks) has found his way to the lineup-lock mix, joining Robinson (three top-12 fantasy outings prior to a Week 4 dud). Houston has allowed the most and Jacksonville the seventh-most RB fantasy points, so both backfields are in a good spot this week. Travis Etienne Jr. has yet to reach 11 fantasy points in any single game and was held to just one target in Week 4. He's not a starting option. The same goes for Rex Burkhead, who has only three carries and 13 targets during his past three games.
Zay Jones (ankle) missed Week 4, but has seen eight-plus targets in seven of his past eight games and remains in the flex discussion. Marvin Jones Jr. had one target despite Zay having to sit out on Sunday and shouldn't be in lineups.
Evan Engram (four total targets in his last two games) is no longer a streaming option.
Over/Under: 40.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 81% (2nd highest)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins has two weekly fantasy finishes worse than 20th and none better than ninth this season. He's not a recommended streamer in a probable low-volume game against Chicago.
David Montgomery (ankle) will be a solid RB2 option, as usual, if he's back from injury this week. If not, Khalil Herbert will join that mix. Herbert has had at least 20 touches and 100 yards in place of Montgomery in both of the past two weeks.
Adam Thielen's targets have steadily increased as the season has gone on, and he has now reached eight targets, 60 yards and 15 fantasy points in consecutive games. Thielen is back in the WR3 mix, but this is a tough spot against a Bears defense that hasn't allowed any WR over 13.0 fantasy points in a game this season. The problem is volume, as Chicago has faced a league-low 55 WR targets, something that might not change much with Chicago running the ball so often.
That latter nugget is also problematic for top Chicago WR Darnell Mooney. Mooney did get back on track a bit with 94 yards in Week 4, but he was held to just five targets, bringing him to a total of 15 across four games. That won't cut it.
Irv Smith Jr. is averaging 4.8 targets and has yet to reach 40 yards in any single outing. He's not a recommended streamer.
Over/Under: 41.2 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 67% (9th highest)
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Jamaal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson
Jared Goff sits fifth in QB fantasy points (although he has been boom/bust) with weekly finishes of 17th, seventh, 19th and first. Goff isn't a factor with his legs and is 11th in pass attempts, but he has been carried by big yardage through the air (third most) and TD passes (most). He has another great matchup this week against a Patriots defense allowing the most fantasy points over expected this season. Goff is a fine streamer.
Williams handled 19 carries and three targets in relief of an injured D'Andre Swift in Week 4 and will remain a lineup lock with Swift likely out again this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson has gained the edge in the Patriots' RBBC, leading in snaps (71-50), routes (34-13) and targets (10-4), while sitting just behind in carries (29-26) over the past two weeks. Stevenson has the passing-down role on lock and has now seen 16-plus touches in consecutive games, whereas Harris has scored in 13 of his past 16 games, including three in a row. Stevenson is the better play, but both are on the RB2 radar against a Lions defense that has allowed the second-most RB fantasy points and the most RB rushing scores (8) this season.
Jakobi Meyers (knee) has missed the past two games, but he opened the season with a 13-150-0 receiving line on 18 targets in two games. He's a flex against a Lions defense that has allowed 18-plus fantasy points to six different wideouts this season. Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker each have one big game and three duds, but both have a good matchup against this Detroit secondary. Consider them to be deep-league flex fliers.
DJ Chark missed Week 4, but had previously failed to clear 52 yards in any game. He'll be a good flex play only if St. Brown remains out. With Chark and St. Brown out last week, Josh Reynolds handled eight targets for the second week in a row and delivered a 7-81-1 receiving line. Reynolds has now had a score and/or 80 yards in three straight games and will be a WR3/flex if he plays a top-two role again this week.
Hunter Henry has been limited to just nine targets this season, but he's a sleeper play this week with Jonnu Smith likely out and against a Detroit defense that has allowed a league-high five TE touchdowns.
Over/Under: 50.2 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 52% (14th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Geno Smith is suddenly up to ninth in fantasy points after consecutive top-10 outings, both of which included 320-plus passing yards and two-plus touchdowns. Now, Smith is ranked 20th in expected QB fantasy points (his two big games were against Atlanta and Seattle), so we need to tread lightly, but he has played well enough for streaming consideration this week.
Rashaad Penny came through in a smash spot last week, producing 157 yards and two scores on 18 touches. It was his first game with more than 8.5 fantasy points this season, however, and life won't be as easy this week against a Saints defense allowing the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points. Penny, who has seen just two targets in his past three games, remains no more than a flex.
Chris Olave has posted back-to-back top-20 fantasy outings and still leads the NFL in air yards (662). He's a fine WR3 who will move up into the WR2 mix if Michael Thomas is out again. Thomas (foot) has yet to clear 65 yards in any game, but he has scored three times and is averaging 7.3 targets per game. That's enough to keep him in the WR3 mix if he goes. Jarvis Landry hasn't cleared five targets or 25 yards in any game since Week 1 and would be an uninspiring flex even if Thomas remains out.
Taysom Hill has scored twice in three games, but he has yet to clear five touches in any outing. He shouldn't be near lineups.
Over/Under: 43.3 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 72% (5th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Teddy Bridgewater will start in place of Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) this week. Bridgewater played on 65% of the snaps last week and produced 193 yards and a score. Considering his elite targets, he's not the worst you could do for a streamer.
Believe it or not, Breece Hall is second among all RBs in expected fantasy points. He's only 31st in carries, but he's first in targets (30) and 11th in expected TDs (2.3). Hall has led the Jets backfield in snaps in consecutive weeks and is now in the weekly RB2 mix. However, both he and Michael Carter (three straight games with single-digit fantasy points) get a downgrade this week against a Miami defense allowing 3.2 yards per RB carry (fifth-lowest) this season.
Raheem Mostert outsnapped Chase Edmonds 50-16 in Week 4 and has now held the snap edge in three straight games. Mostert had 15 carries and 81 yards in Week 4, but still hasn't scored or cleared 11 fantasy points in any game. He's a flex, whereas Edmonds (under eight touches in three straight games) belongs glued to benches.
Miami has allowed the fifth-most WR fantasy points (9.5 YPT is second worst) and won't have CB Byron Jones (IR) for a while. This opens the door for Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and perhaps also Corey Davis as starting options. Wilson saw a season-low six targets in Zach Wilson's 2022 debut, but the rookie played on a season-high 78% of snaps. Moore also saw a season-low in targets (3) last week and hasn't been very good with Wilson under center over the past year or so, but playing on 90% of the snaps keeps him in the flex conversation. Davis paced the Jets with seven targets last week, but his fantasy output has been all over the map since joining the Jets last season. He's a risky play, even having produced 70-plus yards in three separate games this season.
Tyler Conklin saw a season-low five targets last week and has been below 55 yards in three of four games. He's a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 43.9 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 64% (10th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Drake London, Mike Evans
Tom Brady got back on track last week, producing 385 yards and three touchdowns on 52 passing attempts. He was No. 4 in QB scoring, marking his first top-15 week of the season. With his star receivers back and facing an Atlanta pass defense that has underwhelmed despite a light schedule (Saints, Rams, Seahawks, Browns), Brady is back in the QB1 mix.
Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR, which means Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and perhaps even Avery Williams will man a backfield committee in Atlanta. Allgeier, the fifth-round rookie, handled 10 carries and one target on 24 snaps in Week 4, with Huntley managing 10 carries on 12 snaps. Both played well, with the rookie producing 104 yards and Huntley adding 56 yards and one score. Both belong on benches for now, especially against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the third-fewest RB fantasy points this season. In fact, only one back has cleared 6.3 fantasy points against the Buccaneers.
Rachaad White ate more into Fournette's workload last week (three carries, a career-high 18 routes and five targets), but should still be on fantasy benches.
Even after a Week 4 dud, London remains a lineup lock thanks to his massive 33% target share (second to only Cooper Kupp).
Julio Jones isn't an awful flex dart-throw against a Falcons defense that has allowed 41-plus WR fantasy points in three out of its four games.
Believe it or not, Kyle Pitts sits fourth at tight end with a 24% target share. Of course, Atlanta's low-volume offense has limited him to just one game over 3.9 fantasy points. Pitts is a fringe TE1 against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing the most TE targets and catches.
Over/Under: 46.6 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 78% (3rd highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry
Three defenses have allowed a league-high 10 passing scores this season -- and two of them square off in this game. Carson Wentz delivered a pair of top-five fantasy performances to open the season but has finished no better than 27th in tougher matchups over the past two weeks. Of course, the Titans have allowed 16-plus QB fantasy points in every game, so Wentz has some streaming appeal in deeper leagues. Tannehill is in a similar boat, having already produced a pair of top-10 fantasy outings this season.
Antonio Gibson's playing time and fantasy output has decreased each week so far and his fall may continue with Brian Robinson expected back for this game. Gibson may now be second in line for both carries (behind Robinson) and targets (behind J.D. McKissic) and is a risky flex. Robinson belongs on benches for now, but scoop him up if he's on waivers.
There are no clear lineup-lock wideouts in this game, but these are two of the five worst defenses in terms of WR fantasy points allowed, so several make for fine WR3/flex plays. That list includes Curtis Samuel (seven-plus opportunities in all four games), Terry McLaurin (a Week 4 dud, but 75-plus yards or a score in each of his first three games) and Robert Woods (85 yards or a touchdown in his last two games and more potential work with Treylon Burks out).
Logan Thomas matched a season-high with six targets last week, but he's yet to clear 45 yards in any game and is more of a mid-range TE2.
Over/Under: 44.3 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 50% (16th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel
The lowest-projected game of the week does not include many fantasy-relevant players outside of the obvious lineup locks. Jeff Wilson Jr. arguably belongs in that lineup-lock category after accruing 15-plus touches and 74-plus yards in each of his past three games (he also scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 4). Wilson will be a better/safer RB2 play if rookie Tyrion Davis-Price remains out this week.
DJ Moore saw 12 targets last week (his most since Week 6 of last season), but he fell short of 65 yards for the fourth time in as many games this season. Moore has fallen to the WR3 mix. Robbie Anderson hasn't cleared three catches or 32 yards since Week 1 and is barely rosterable.
Brandon Aiyuk is averaging 5.8 targets per game but has gone over 40 yards in just one of four games. He's looking like a shaky flex right now.
George Kittle not a lineup lock? The veteran has yet to clear 28 yards in any game this season and has seen seven or fewer targets in nine straight games. He's tough to bench, but the truth is that he's suddenly more of a back-end TE1.
Over/Under: 32.8 (16th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 71% (7th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert
James Conner is no longer a lineup lock after three consecutive games with single-digit fantasy points. Conner has seen 15-plus touches in his three healthy games, but he hasn't scored since Week 1 and has cleared 57 yards just once. Conner is still the lead back, though, which keeps him in the RB2 conversation.
After a goose egg in Week 1, DeVonta Smith teased us with 7-80-0 and 8-169-1 receiving lines during Weeks 2-3 before plummeting back to earth with a 3-17-0 showing in Week 4. Smith is a full-time player in a great offense, so he's on the WR3 radar, but Mike Williams-like boom/bust production seems to be in the cards (no pun intended). Note that Arizona has been surprisingly good against wide receivers, allowing only one (Kupp) over 13 fantasy points.
Rondale Moore played on 59 snaps in his 2022 debut last week, but that garnered him just seven yards on four touches. He should be on benches.
Over/Under: 47.3 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 69% (8th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Higbee
Matthew Stafford and Rush have combined for zero top-10 fantasy QB outings this season and neither should be near lineups.
Ezekiel Elliott handled a season-high 21 touches last week, but he was held to 81 yards and didn't find the end zone. Elliott has only weekly finish better than 29th (16th in Week 3) and is no more than a flex option against a Rams defense that has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points. Tony Pollard had the worst game of his career in Week 4 (eight yards on nine touches) and belongs on benches.
Darrell Henderson Jr. and Cam Akers continue to share the Rams' backfield duties, which has resulted in a combined zero top-20 fantasy weeks. Neither should be in lineups.
Michael Gallup played on 61% of snaps and was targeted on just three of his 23 routes in last week's 2022 debut. This is a great matchup (the beat-up Rams secondary has allowed the second-most WR fantasy points, yards and scores), but Gallup is ideally left on benches until he's back to an every-down role.
Allen Robinson II is tied for second in the NFL in end zone targets (6), but he's yet to clear six total targets or 53 yards in any single game. He's too risky to start.
Dalton Schultz has 18 yards on seven targets without Dak Prescott and won't be a recommended start until Dallas' usual No. 1 quarterback is back under center. The Rams have allowed the fewest TE fantasy points, including a grand total of 20 fantasy points to the quartet of Ertz, Kittle, Pitts and Knox.
Over/Under: 39.1 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 52% (15th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mark Andrews
J.K. Dobbins made a big leap in Week 2 -- his second game back from injury -- totaling 63 yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches. Justice Hill is going to miss time, but old friend Gus Edwards could be back this week, which figures to continue to limit Dobbins' ceiling a bit. Still, he looks good and is seeing enough work to justify RB2 consideration -- even against a Bengals defense allowing the second-fewest RB fantasy points over expected.
The Bengals are also allowing the second-fewest WR points over expected, which could be problematic for slumping Rashod Bateman. The second-year receiver scored in both Weeks 1 and 2, but he's been held to only 76 yards on 10 targets over the last two weeks. If he's able to play through his foot injury, he'll be a boom/bust flex until his volume increases.
Tyler Boyd has seen 12 targets in three games with a healthy Higgins and shouldn't be near lineups.
Hayden Hurst scored his first Bengals touchdown last week, but he's been held under 30 yards in three straight games and has a mere six targets over his last two outings. He's a TE2.
Over/Under: 49.3 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 53% (13th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller
Derek Carr is coming off an expected down game against Denver, but he's a streaming option in what is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week. Carr threw two TD passes in each of his first three games this season and has produced 18-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games against Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most QB fantasy points (and the most touchdowns) this season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been targeted eight times in three out of four games, but his yardage has been all over the map. Plus, he has yet to find the end zone. He's no more than a WR3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging 5.5 targets per game and hasn't scored a TD or cleared 63 yards in a game. He should be on benches.
That would also be the case for Hunter Renfrow (16 targets during Weeks 1-2) if he returns from a concussion this week. Mack Hollins (six-plus targets in three-straight games) will only be a flex option if Renfrow remains out.
Over/Under: 52.9 (Highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 75% (4th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman Jr.
Russell Wilson came through with 27.5 fantasy points in a good matchup against the Raiders last week, which marks his second-highest single-game total during his past 28 games. It's a step in the right direction after a slow start and positions him as a viable streamer in a decent matchup against the Colts.
With Javonte Williams out for the season, Melvin Gordon III is the new feature back in Denver. Gordon has struggled with efficiency (3.8 YPC, 4.9 YPT) and fumbles (4) this season, but he was averaging 11.3 touches per game with Williams in the mix and now could move closer to 18-20 per game. The 29-year-old is in the RB2 mix and should be in lineups. Mike Boone will get plenty of run behind Gordon, but he should be on benches.
Nyheim Hines is on top of the depth chart in the Colts' backfield with Jonathan Taylor out. Hines has reached 10 carries in just four out of his 72 career games and his size will limit his carry ceiling, but 12-14 touches, including a big passing-down role, is enough to position him as a RB2/flex. Special teamer Deon Jackson (18 career NFL snaps) and potential practice squad promotion Phillip Lindsay (revenge game!) will factor in on run plays, but neither is a recommended fantasy start.
Jerry Jeudy is averaging 6.0 targets per game during three full outings and, although he has score two touchdowns, the limited volume has relegated him to flex territory.
Rookie Alec Pierce has hit 60 receiving yards in back-to-back games and belongs on benches.
Mo Alie-Cox scored twice last week, but his playing time was barely up from Weeks 1-3 when he totaled a mere 44 yards on eight targets. No tight ends playing in this game should be anywhere near fantasy lineups.
Over/Under: 38 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 71% (6th highest)